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Euro-zone economies
歐元區經濟
Mirabile dictu
說也奇怪
A recovery at last, but no revelation
終于有所復蘇，但是也不出乎意料
Aug 17th 2013 |From the print edition
THE prayed-for recovery in the euro area has finally come to pass. After a dismal 18 months in recession, euro-zone GDP rose by 0.3% (an annualised rate of 1.1%) in the second quarter from its level in early 2013. That outcome was a bit stronger than expected, although the outlook for growth remains weak.
歐元區祈求已久的復蘇終于來了。經歷了十八個月低沉的衰退之后，相比2013年第一季度，歐元區的GDP在第二季度增加了0.3%（年化增長率為1.1%）。這個表現強于預期，盡管增長的前景仍然堪憂。
The upturn was led by Germany, whose GDP increased by 0.7%. France did surprisingly well, with output up by 0.5%. There was also some encouraging news from southern Europe. Output continued to fall in Italy and Spain but the rate of decline slackened to 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. And there was a sharp rebound in Portugal, which has suffered a deep recession: its GDP grew by 1.1%.
這次回升由德國主導，其GDP增長了0.7%。法國的表現有點出乎意料，增長了0.5%之多。南歐也有好消息。盡管意大利和西班牙的GDP繼續下滑，但是各自只下滑了0.2%和0.1%。而葡萄牙則有一個劇烈的反彈，之前經歷了很嚴重的衰退，而現在GDP增長了1.1%。
The pickup still leaves GDP across the euro area 0.7% lower than a year ago. The output declines since the second quarter of 2012 have been biggest in tiny Cyprus, where GDP is down by 5.2%, and in Greece, where it has fallen by 4.6%. Despite its performance in the second quarter, the Portuguese economy is 2% smaller than a year ago.
歐元區經過此次回暖之后，GDP總量仍然比去年低0.7%。自去年二季度到現在衰退最嚴重的是小國塞浦路斯，GDP下降了5.2%，而希臘也下降了4.6%。盡管葡萄牙這次表現不錯，但是其經濟總量與一年前相比也縮小了2%。
The record of the euro-zone economy since the peak reached before the global financial crisis five years ago is even more depressing. Output is 3% lower; in America it is more than 4% higher (see chart). Among the big euro-zone economies only German GDP now exceeds its pre-crisis peak, by 2%. The economies on the periphery of the single-currency club have suffered drastic falls, although Greece is in a league of its own with a shrinkage of 23%.
五年前全球金融危機前歐元區的經濟達到峰值，從那時到現在的記錄更讓人失望。工業產出比當時低了3%之多，而美國則高出了4%。在歐元區的經濟體中，只有德國現在的GDP總量超過了金融危機前的峰值，比峰值多了2%。歐元區非核心經濟體GDP嚴重下降，雖然只有希臘下降了23%之多。
Even with so much lost ground to make up, the medium-term outlook is for a lacklustre recovery in the euro area, which will continue to be held back by its dodgy banks. Forecasters recently surveyed by the European Central Bank expected on average that euro-zone GDP for the whole of 2013 would be 0.6% lower than in 2012; and that it would grow by only 0.9% in 2014. A tepid recovery is unlikely to do much for the unemployed, especially those in southern Europe where joblessness rates are extraordinarily high. The end of the recession will give fresh heart to European leaders, who can (again) proclaim that the worst of the crisis is over. But weak growth will still leave the euro area vulnerable to social and political discontent.
盡管經濟需要重振雄風，但是歐元區的中長期復蘇乏力，這其中運轉不佳的銀行是主要原因。歐洲央行最近調查預測歐元區今年的GDP增量為0.6%，低于去年，而明年的增長率也僅為0.9%，微弱的復蘇似乎不能使就業狀況好轉，尤其是在歐洲南部失業率居高不下的國家。衰退的結束會鼓舞歐盟的領導人，但是誰敢說危機結束了呢？疲軟的增勢仍然讓歐元區極易陷入社會不滿與政治不滿中。
