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Raghuram Rajan joins the RBI
Raghuram Rajan加入印度儲備銀行
Out of the frying pan
脫離苦海
A star economist is put in charge of India’s central bank
明星經(jīng)濟學(xué)家接手印度央行
Aug 10th 2013 | MUMBAI |From the print edition
RAGHURAM RAJAN is often described as one of the few economists to predict the financial crisis. In a speech in 2005 to the world’s top central bankers he said innovation had made finance more dangerous. At the time his view was dismissed by Larry Summers, now a front-runner to become chairman of the Federal Reserve (see article), as “slightly Luddite”.
Raghuram Rajan經(jīng)常被說成是少數(shù)幾個預(yù)測到金融危機的經(jīng)濟學(xué)家之一。2005年一次向世界頂級央行銀行家的演講中，他說道創(chuàng)新讓金融業(yè)更危險。當(dāng)時，Larry Summers并沒有理會他的觀點，說他有點盧德分子的感覺，恐懼技術(shù)變革?，F(xiàn)在Larry Summers是美聯(lián)儲主席的熱門人選。
Mr Rajan has also been right about India. In 2010, as hubris in the country soared, he warned that “growth can never be taken for granted” and that “self-delusion is the first step towards disaster.” As he prepares to succeed Duvvuri Subbarao at the helm of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in September that caution seems prescient. India’s economy is in a funk and it faces a balance-of-payments scare. The rupee has fallen by 12% against the dollar in the past three months.
Mr Rajan’s appointment, announced on August 6th, is welcome. As well as a stint as chief economist for the IMF and a star turn in academia, he has spent the past year advising the finance ministry and has been involved in efforts to get India’s reforms back on track (with mixed results). He believes in liberalisation, which India needs lots more of.
Rajan先生對印度的觀點也是正確的。2010年，印度國內(nèi)風(fēng)氣十分傲慢，他警告說任何增長都不是理所當(dāng)然的，自欺是災(zāi)難的開始。現(xiàn)在他準備九月份從Duvvuri Subbarao手中接過印度儲備銀行，這意味著之前的警告是對的。印度經(jīng)濟處于恐懼之中，面臨達不到收支平衡的恐懼。過去的三個月，盧布對美元匯率下跌了12%。Rajan先生的任命在8月6號宣布，廣受歡迎。作為國際貨幣基金組織的首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家，同樣也是學(xué)術(shù)界的名宿，他過去一直致力于給印度財政部提供建議，努力使印度改革回到正軌（改革結(jié)果各異）。他相信自由經(jīng)濟主義，這正是印度所需。
Yet his is an unenviable task. To stabilise the currency the RBI recently introduced a package of measures to suck liquidity out of the banking system and in turn raise short-term market interest rates (the RBI’s benchmark rate was unchanged). This seems to be working but may cause a credit crunch among firms and banks, pushing GDP growth below the present 4-5% rate. India’s position is better than some critics allow: relative to its GDP it has a moderate amount of foreign debt to refinance. Still, for now the RBI must choose between a currency slump or strangling the economy.
然而他的任務(wù)艱巨。為了穩(wěn)定貨幣，印度儲備銀行最近引入了一攬子措施減弱銀行系統(tǒng)的流動性，提高了短期市場利率（印度儲備銀行的基準利率沒變）。這些措施有所成效，但是可能會在公司和銀行之間引起信貸危機，使GDP增長低于現(xiàn)在的4-5%。印度的處境比批評家們所說的要好，與GDP相關(guān)的是印度有一定數(shù)量的外債來進行再融資。就現(xiàn)在而言，印度儲備銀行要么選擇貨幣暴跌，要么選擇經(jīng)濟崩潰。
In the long run the solution is a big burst of government reforms that would restore confidence among foreign and domestic investors. But with an election due by May 2014, that looks unlikely. In the meantime, Mr Rajan will have to face other problems. India’s state banks are sitting on a pile of bad debts. The RBI’s recent decision, in principle, to allow India’s business houses to set up their own banks is also a headache. Mr Rajan is a critic of cronyism but he will have his work cut out to prevent licences going to well-connected tycoons.
長期的解決方案是政府改革的大爆發(fā)會重樹國內(nèi)外投資者的信心。但是隨著2014年5月大選即將到來，這看起來是不可能的。同時，Rajan先生將不得不面對其他問題。印度的國有銀行壞賬成災(zāi)。原則上講，印度儲備銀行決定允許印度企業(yè)建立自己的銀行也很讓人頭痛。Rajan先生反對任人唯親，但是如果他阻止向商業(yè)大亨們發(fā)放許可證可能會丟掉自己的官位。
Mr Rajan is no administrator but will also have to reform the RBI. It is a fine institution, but a stretched one. In the 1990s it toyed with relinquishing some of its vast empire—it runs everything from monetary policy to public-debt issuance and bank regulation. Recently it has clung to its powers only to find that its multiple goals of stability, growth and low inflation conflict. Mr Rajan’s task is to resolve those contradictions. If he succeeds, Western central bankers, who have seen a proliferation in their responsibilities since the crisis, will have another reason to listen to his views.
Rajan先生不是行政官，但是他也會改革印度儲備銀行。該銀行是一個不錯的機構(gòu)，但是顯得有點捉襟見肘。1990年代，它很隨便的放棄了自己的一些業(yè)務(wù)，當(dāng)時可是一個大型金融王朝，擁有從貨幣政策到過國債發(fā)放和銀行監(jiān)管等業(yè)務(wù)。最近，印度儲備銀行收緊權(quán)力卻發(fā)現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定，增長與低通貨之間沖突不斷。Rajan先生的任務(wù)是解決這些矛盾。如果他成功了，那么西方的央行銀行家會因此而選擇聽聽他的觀點，自從金融危機之后，這些銀行家就看到了他們責(zé)任有所增加。
