評論
打印
Japan’s consumption tax
日本的消費稅
Taxonomics
稅收經濟學
A crucial rise in a controversial levy may be in doubt
提高富有爭議的稅收引來質疑
Aug 3rd 2013 | TOKYO |From the print edition
THE Japanese are among the world’s most reluctant taxpayers. They reserve their deepest loathing for value-added tax (VAT). That may be because one of the inventors of VAT, Carl Shoup, an American economist, used them as guinea pigs for his new levy during the occupation after the second world war. Japan soon scrapped VAT, reintroducing a “consumption tax” only in 1989. This quickly became as hated as its foreign-imposed forerunner.
日本人是世界上最不情愿的納稅人之一。他們對增值稅恨之入骨。可能是因為增值稅的發明者之一，美國經濟學家Carl Shoup在二戰之后用他們作為其新稅收類型的小白鼠。日本很快廢除了增值稅，直到1989年重新引入了一種消費稅。很快人們也煩透了這一稅收。
The gaijin are watching again as Japan struggles to raise the consumption tax for only the second time since its introduction. The IMF, the OECD (a Paris-based club of mainly rich countries) and local institutions all reckon a series of rises is the only way for Japan to control its gross public debt, approaching 250% of GDP.
近日日本開始準備第二次提高消費稅，這引來了外國人的再次關注。貨幣基金組織，經合組織和日本國內機構都認為日本控制國債的唯一方法就是提高稅收。日本國債已達到GDP的250%之多。
The Democratic Party of Japan, which won legislative backing for the hike last year, argued that without it Japan could soon go the way of Greece. Financial markets have counted on the tax rise going ahead despite a change of government since then. This week the authorities surprised them by saying they would set up a panel to examine whether to proceed as planned.
日本的民主黨在去年取得了增稅的立法支持。民主黨表示若不增稅，日本可能陷入希臘的境地。從那時起，盡管政府任職有所變動，金融市場一直指望著增稅的到來。本周，政府宣布成立專家小組討論是否增稅，這讓金融界大為震驚。
The plan is to lift the levy from 5% to 8% next April and to 10% in 2015. That would bite just as Abenomics, a popular three-part plan to reflate the economy, designed by Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, is taking off. The first two stages, a radical monetary loosening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and a generous fiscal stimulus, were aimed at jolting consumers out of their deflationary mindset and inspiring firms to invest. But so far it is mainly the urban wealthy and big firms that are benefiting. A consumption-tax increase, on the other hand, would immediately lighten all pockets.
日本計劃明年四月將消費稅從5%提高至8%，到2015年進一步提高到10%。由首相安倍晉三設計的安倍經濟計劃是一個三步走計劃，意在重振日本經濟，即將開始施行。增稅會對安倍經濟計劃產生不良影響。前兩步是通過日本銀行激進的貨幣寬松政策和強勁的財政刺激，去除消費者通貨緊縮的思維定勢，激勵企業投資。但是到目前為止，只有城市財富和大公司從中獲利。另一方面，消費稅的增加會立即使人們的財富減少。
The fear is that a rise in revenues from the tax could be far outweighed by years of lost growth if consumers take fright. The only other consumption-tax rise, of 2% in 1997, was blamed for consigning Japan to a second lost decade, though this coincided with other events such as the Asian financial crisis. Without counting broader knock-on effects, says Robert Feldman of Morgan Stanley, the 3% rise scheduled for 2014 would reduce GDP by over 1%.
最大的隱患是如若消費者產生恐慌心理，稅收的收益會遠低于經濟增長放緩的損失。唯一的一次消費稅增稅出現在1997年，增加了2%，被指責使日本陷入了二次衰退。盡管這次衰退還有這其他諸如亞洲金融危機等的原因。摩根斯坦利的Robert Feldman表示，不算其帶來的連鎖效應，2014年增稅3%會使GDP減少至少1%。
An alternative could be to lift the tax more gradually. Koichi Hamada, an economist at Yale University who helped to design Abenomics, has said that the levy could be raised in increments of 1% over five years. Mr Abe’s panel will study this option, among others. As long as the tax is raised significantly in some way, says Naka Matsuzawa at Nomura Securities, the bond market would probably stay calm.
另一種方法是更循序漸進的增稅。耶魯大學的經濟學家Koichi Hamada參與設計了安倍經濟計劃。他表示增稅可以在未來的五年增加1%。安倍先生的團隊會研究這一策略。野村證券的Naka Matsuzawa認為，如果增稅，債券市場可能會保持冷靜。
Ditching the tax increase entirely remains unthinkable. Recent economic indicators, such as strong real annualised GDP growth of 4.1% in the first quarter, as well as a slightly improved jobs market, leave Mr Abe with little excuse but to go ahead. The BoJ this week added its voice to those pushing for a rise. And taxpayers may be more accepting than the politicians think. An unscientific straw poll by The Economist found that seven out of ten shoppers in Ginza, a high-end shopping district, were ready for a tax increase, as narrowly preferable to a debt crisis.
整個的放棄稅收增長是不可想象的。最近的經濟指標，諸如一季度強勁的真實年化GDP增長達到4.1%，還有人力市場狀況的輕微回暖，這些都使得安倍政府必須接著干。本周，日本銀行也宣布支持增稅。納稅人可能比政治家想的更容易接受增稅。經濟學人做的一份非學術民意調查發現，七成東京銀座的消費者選擇準備好了迎接受增稅，而不是迎接債務危機。
