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Finance and Economics；Apple's share price; iRational?
財經；蘋果的股價; 蘋果股價合理嗎？
Apple is an iconic brand. Now it is a totemic investment, too.
蘋果本是一種電子產品的品牌，現在卻成了投資的風向標。
The new iPad, which was released on March 16th, is the most popular version of the tablet yet. Apple sold 3m of them in just four days. But some buyers took to discussion forums to report that it has a tendency to heat up. A similar debate exists about Apple's stock.
3月16日發布的新一代蘋果是迄今為止最受歡迎的平板電腦。在僅僅4天內，蘋果就銷售了300萬臺。一些消費者在論壇區說，蘋果的銷售變得越來越火。人們同樣認為蘋果的股價會蒸蒸日上。
The company's share price has risen by 83% in the past year, and by almost 50% so far in 2012. Apple is now easily the largest company in the world by market capitalisation, at some 565 billion dollar. It looms over Exxon Mobil, which is worth a mere 408 billion dollar. Since the start of this year it has added 187 billion dollar to its valuation, roughly equivalent to the entire market caps of companies like Procter Gamble, Johnson Johnson and Wells Fargo. Apple is larger than the American retail sector combined.
在2011年，蘋果的股價上漲了83%；今年，到目前為止上漲了約50%。蘋果市值約為5650億，輕松成為世界上最大的公司。其市值超過了埃克森美孚公司的市值：僅有4080億。今年以來，蘋果市值增加了1870億，大致和寶潔、強生、富國銀行的總市值相等。蘋果市值比全美零售業市值還要高。
It accounts for 4.5% of the SP 500 and 1.1% of the global equity market (see chart 1). Some bank analysts have started to report America's corporate earnings without Apple, because including the firm so skews results. Fourth-quarter earnings are expected to have risen by 6.7% from the prior year for companies in the SP 500, but by a much more modest 3.6% if Apple is excluded, according to UBS.
如圖1所示，蘋果市值占史坦普500股價指數的4.5%，占整個股本市場的1.1%。一些銀行分析家們在報道美國公司收益時已經剔除蘋果公司了，因為如果包含該公司的話會扭曲報告結果。根據史坦普500股價指數，公司收益在第四季度預計同比上漲6.7%。然而瑞士銀行指出，如果把蘋果公司剔除的話，這一漲幅會僅有3.6%多點。
Around a third of all hedge funds own it, including big names like SAC Capital and Greenlight. Some have made very big bets. Citadel's 5.1 billion dollar stake in Apple (as of December 31st) accounted for around 12% of its equity portfolio. Many hedge funds that have done well in the past year owe much to this single position.
大約三分之一的對沖基金持有蘋果的股票，其中包括著名的SAC股權基金與綠光基金。一些基金甚至孤注一擲。截至去年月31日，城堡投資集團持有蘋果51億美元的股票，大約股票投資組合12%。許多去年收益好的對沖基金在很大程度上受益于大量持有蘋果股份。
The stock's gains this year have not only boosted the spirits of shareholders but also brightened the whole equity market. Apple is responsible for more than 10% of the SP 500's rise this year (see chart 2), and for 39% of the NASDAQ 100's gains. No other stock has ever grown to have such a significant impact on an index so quickly, says Howard Silverblatt of Standard Poor's, a ratings agency.
今年股市的上漲不僅激發了股民的信心，也未整個股票市場帶來了生機。史坦普500股價指數在本年度的漲幅中，蘋果貢獻度不少于10%（如圖2）；在納斯達克100指數的漲幅中，蘋果貢獻度為39%。標準普爾（信用評級機構）的Howard Silverblatt說，還沒有其它股票像蘋果能對指數產生如此迅速而重大的影響。
The share price keeps soaring. On March 20th, a day after Apple announced it would use some of its cash hoard (estimated at 97.6 billion dollar at the end of 2011) on a quarterly dividend and a 10 billion dollar share buy-back, its shares closed at a record high of 605.96 dollar. This is the first time in 17 years that Apple will pay a dividend. Dividend funds, which had not considered investing in Apple before, could pile in, potentially pushing the price higher still.
蘋果的股價漲勢依然逼人。在3月19日，蘋果宣布在2011年低前預計將拿出976億用于季度分紅，同時將回購100億美元的股本。次日，其股價創歷史新高（605.96美元）。這是17年來蘋果的首次分紅。之前從未考慮過投資蘋果公司的股利基金，或將蜂擁而至并繼續推高蘋果股價。
Most analysts remain committed fans of the shares. Some claim that a 1 trillion dollar valuation could soon be possible. The bullish case runs as follows. Apple has low penetration in the personal-computer and smartphone markets, and can hook millions more customers in emerging markets like China and Brazil. Although questions remain over how much of Apple's innovation was due to its magician-in-chief, Steve Jobs, who died last October, the launch of the new iPad has calmed nerves somewhat. Apple is poised to enter new arenas like television and mobile payments.
大多數分析家們仍然看好蘋果股票。一些分析家宣稱，蘋果市值有可能突破1萬億。其理由如下。盡管蘋果在個人電腦和智能手機市場中的市場滲透率較低，但其在如中國和巴西這樣的新興市場中能吸引數百萬的顧客群體。盡管有人認為蘋果總裁喬布斯的去世意味著蘋果的輝煌將一去不復返，然而新一代iPad的銷售業績證明了這種懷疑是毫無意義的。而且，蘋果打算進軍如電視和掌上支付這樣的新領域。
The firm still has a ton of cash to invest in new products and ward off emerging threats. Horace Dediu of Asymco, a data-analysis firm, has estimated that even after the dividend payout and any buy-back activity this year, Apple could still end 2012 with over 35 billion dollar more in the bank than it had at the end of the previous year. With an historic price-earnings (p/e) ratio of 22, shares are not as dear as you might expect, and look even more attractive when the p/e is calculated based on forward earnings. Apple's revenues are forecast to grow by at least 51% in fiscal-year 2012 and by 23% in 2013, according to Morgan Stanley.
蘋果公司擁有大量的資金可投資于新產品和預防潛在的風險。數據分析公司Horace Dediu of Asymco估計到：蘋果今年即使施行了分紅和回購行為，其2012的銀行存款將同比增長至少350億美元?？紤]到蘋果的市盈率僅僅為22，那么其股價就并非那么高了。如果通過未來收益來計算市盈率的話，蘋果的股價將會更有吸引力。根據摩根斯坦利，蘋果公司的在2012和2013會計年度的預計收益至少分別上漲51%和23%。
Others reckon that the outlook for its business is not the only thing that has been driving the steep ascent of Apple's shares. The stock has seen such heavy gains in recent weeks that many investors can't afford not to have Apple in their portfolio. Fund managers that are judged against a benchmark where Apple is heavily weighted, like the NASDAQ 100 or the SP 500 technology index, have to scramble to keep a heavy exposure to Apple. “The speed of the move and the size of the company scare people who haven't got it,” says Andy Ash of Monument Securities. “The danger is that you end up with everyone buying it because they have to rather than because they want to.”
其他人認為，蘋果公司的前景并非是推動其股價快速上漲得唯一因素。蘋果的股價在近幾周來不斷上漲，許多投資者不得不把蘋果納入其投資組合。基金經理的業績基準如納斯達克100指數、斯史坦普500股價指數，受蘋果影響是很大的，因此他們爭先恐后的重倉持有蘋果股票。紀念碑證券公司的Andy Ash說：“蘋果公司的發展規模和速度使人們爭相搶購蘋果的股票。然而危險的是雖然人人最終持有蘋果股票，但是并非都出自于真心，而是他們不得不買?！?/div>
Some wonder whether the stock is headed into bubble territory. Apple's p/e is much lower than that of stocks in the dot-com bubble; America Online's was a ridiculous 154 in 1999. But contrarian thinking is thin on the ground. There is very little short interest in Apple. “Call” options, which give the right to buy Apple stock, are much more expensive than “puts”, which give the right to sell the stock, says Mark Sebastian of Option Pit, a consultancy. Of the 54 analysts who track Apple stock, only one has a sell rating, according to Bloomberg. Robert Shiller, a Yale economist and author of “Irrational Exuberance”, reckons that the “emotional attachment” to the Apple story and “wild” enthusiasm about its stock are reminiscent of a bubble. “You could play the bubble, because it might not be over yet, but I wouldn't put money in Apple stock,” he says.
一些人懷疑疑慮，蘋果的股價是否存在泡沫了。然而相較于互聯網泡沫時代股票的市盈率，蘋果的市盈率非常的低了；美國互聯網公司在1999年市盈率竟然高達154.但是逆向投資者少有人在。幾乎沒有投資者拋售蘋果股票。Option Pit（咨詢公司）的Mark Sebastian說，蘋果股票的看漲期權遠貴于看跌期權。根據Bloomberg，追蹤蘋果的54位分析家中只有一位建議賣出。耶魯大學經濟學家兼非理性繁榮的作者Robert Shiller說到，投資者們對蘋果傳奇的情感依附和狂熱讓人想起泡沫時代。他說：“你可以利用蘋果股價泡沫來賺錢，因為其還不會破滅，但是我是不會購買蘋果股票的。”
Even if bubble talk is over the top, a higher share price is justified only if Apple continues to meet earnings expectations. That usually gets harder. The stocks of market-leading companies historically underperform once they have reached the top slot, since they are less nimble and more vulnerable to attacks by regulators and the press. It is harder to continue impressive earnings growth on a large base. Even a modest earnings miss could have a big effect on the share price, since more of Apple's shareholders today are fickle traders.
即使泡沫論夸大其詞，但是蘋果只有不斷達到預期收益才能保證其持續上漲的股價是合理的。然而，這變得越來越難。從過去來看，一旦市場領先的企業一旦位居榜首，其股價就會表現不佳。其原因是他們對監管者和媒體的攻擊反應遲鈍，更加容易受到影響?？傮w上來看，持續保持良好的收益增長相當難。由于蘋果的許多股東都相當浮躁，即使在合理范圍內的收益損失都會對其股價產生較大的影響。
If there was a fall, it would ripple. Technology investors, which have a higher concentration of Apple in their portfolios, are the most vulnerable. Apple makes up more than 18% of PowerShares QQQ, an exchange-traded fund with heavy exposure to technology stocks, for example. More unsettling are funds that have strayed into buying Apple against their mandate, including some mutual funds that are supposed to focus on smaller companies. “If Apple has a wobble, you could see it dictate broader market movements,” says Alec Levine of Newedge, a broker.
如果蘋果股價下跌，其將會產生連鎖反應。重倉持有蘋果股票的科技型投資者最容易受到影響。例如，交易所基金PowerShares QQQ重倉持有科技股，其中蘋果比重超過了18%。那些違背委托意愿而購買蘋果股票的基金對股價下降更會心神不寧，這其中包括一些本應投資于小型企業的共同基金。新際集團的經紀人Alec Levine說：“如果蘋果的股價產生波動的話，它將引起整個市場范圍的波動?！?/div>
Hedge funds could be among the biggest losers. They look clever now for buying a stock that has seen such a rise, but they will look dumb if they lose money when it falls. Some may question whether they should earn such high fees simply for buying into the world's most valuable listed firm. Where's the genius there?
對沖基金可能屬于損失最慘的投資家之一。它們的購買行為在股價上漲期看似明智，但股價一旦下跌損失慘重，它們就啞口無言了。一些人質疑，是不是僅僅因為他們購買了全球市值最大的公司的股票就可收取高額費用。真正的投資大師在哪里呢？
| 重點單詞 | 查看全部解釋 | |||
| brand | [brænd] |
想一想再看 n. 商標，牌子，烙印，標記 |
聯想記憶 | |
| committed | [kə'mitid] |
想一想再看 adj. 獻身于某種事業的，委托的 |
聯想記憶 | |
| global | ['gləubəl] |
想一想再看 adj. 全球性的，全世界的，球狀的，全局的 |
聯想記憶 | |
| broker | ['brəukə] |
想一想再看 n. 經紀人 |
聯想記憶 | |
| exuberance | [iɡ'zju:bərəns,-ənsi] |
想一想再看 n. 豐富，茂盛；健康 |
聯想記憶 | |
| ridiculous | [ri'dikjuləs] |
想一想再看 adj. 荒謬的，可笑的 |
聯想記憶 | |
| irrational | [i'ræʃənəl] |
想一想再看 n. 無理數 adj. 無理性的，不合理的 |
聯想記憶 | |
| calculated | ['kælkjuleitid] |
想一想再看 adj. 計算出的；適合的；有計劃的 v. 計算；估計； |
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| debate | [di'beit] |
想一想再看 n. 辯論，討論 |
聯想記憶 | |
| unsettling | [ʌn'setliŋ] |
想一想再看 adj. 使人不安的；（消息）擾亂的 v. 動亂不定；心 |
