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經濟學人:反攻 The fightback

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Finance and Economics;India's economy;The fightback;

財經;印度經濟;反攻;
Undercurrents of optimism about reform, and some fighting talk, in India;
在印度經濟改革勢頭良好、但仍存靡靡質疑之聲的背后;
After a storm-tossed six months for the economy, India's authorities are trying to get things back on an even keel. On June 25th the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced measures to try to stabilise the rupee. It has lost a fifth of its value against the dollar in the past year (see chart), reflecting global woes but also a slowdown in India and a drying up of capital inflows. Its decline is widely seen in India as a bad thing, stoking inflation and hurting firms with foreign-currency debt.
在國內經濟度過了近六個月的風雨飄搖之后,印度政府開始著力如何將經濟局勢趨于穩定。6月25日,印度儲備銀行宣布了一系列措施,意圖穩定盧比匯率。在過去的一年中,盧比對美元的匯率下挫近百分之二十(見下圖),不僅反映出了全球經濟之殤,還體現了印度本國經濟增速放緩,進口資金枯竭的問題。這種下滑對印度來說普遍被視為不利因素,不僅通脹率隨之節節攀升,對于舉有外債的公司來說負擔也更為沉重。

India has long shied away from letting fickle foreigners buy government bonds, but the RBI this week loosened the rules to tempt in sovereign-wealth funds and other long-term investors. It also slightly eased restrictions on Indian manufacturing and infrastructure firms seeking funds abroad.

印度向來都對一些不靠譜的外資對國債的收購請求采取規避的態度,但印度央行此次則對政策實施寬松,希望能夠吸引到更多大筆的資金和長期投資意向人。一些從事制造業和基建工程的印度公司也在尋求外資助力的限制上得到了適度的放寬。
IKEA, a Swedish furniture chain, boosted morale by saying it would invest up to 1.5 billion EURO(1.9 billion Dollar) in India—although on closer inspection that sum was spread over many years. Coca-Cola followed suit with the announcement of an additional 3 billion Dollar in investment, taking the total earmarked for India by 2020 to 5 billion Dollar. A ratings agency proved oddly helpful, too: on June 25th Moody's signalled it would not follow Standard and Poor's and Fitch, which have both warned of a possible downgrade of India to junk status. Its rating, which hovers just within investment grade, remains stable, the agency said.
瑞典家居連鎖巨頭宜家公司宣布決定在印度投入15億歐元(約19億美元)資金——盡管這筆巨額投資被安排在數年時間里逐批投放,但也為當地經濟的提振帶來了利好消息。可口可樂公司也緊隨其后,宣布將會追加30億美元撥入印度市場,到2020年時印度將接受總額達50億美元的投資。一家評級機構也出乎意料地幫了個忙:本月25日,穆迪宣布其不會跟隨標普和惠譽之后,警告會將印度的信用評級降至垃圾級。穆迪確認,印度目前所擁有的投資級依然穩定。
The impact of all this? Not much. The rupee is still near record lows. Yet there is a feeling that a bleak picture may be improving slightly, mainly thanks to a government reshuffle. Pranab Mukherjee, the finance minister, left his position on June 26th to contest the largely ceremonial post of the presidency. Mr Mukherjee, who presented his first budget in 1982, has had a disastrous stint as finance minister this time round, pursuing controversial tax claims against foreigners, including Vodafone; failing to tame the budget deficit; and chairing troubleshooting committees that often fired ordnance at India's own feet.
上述的這些到底能派上多大的用場呢?只能說收效甚微。盧比匯率目前仍在其歷史最低點附近徘徊,但隨著政府部門及領導人的重新洗牌,也有預感認為慘淡的國內經濟形式也許可以得到些許好轉。印度財政部長普拉納布·穆克吉在26日辭去了職務,并宣布將會參與下一屆總統競選的角逐。穆克吉部長在1982年初上任的時候第一次公布了他的財政預算,但就目前的經濟狀況來看,他任職期間的所作所為早已過分拮據不合時宜。比如針對如沃達豐這樣的外資企業征稅、縮減預算赤字失敗、以及其領導的修正委員,最后往往被證明是搬起石頭砸自己的腳。
Responsibility for the finance ministry, for a time at least, has passed to Manmohan Singh, the prime minister. Although even less of a spring chicken—at 79, compared with Mr Mukherjee's 76—he has credentials as a reformer, having served as finance minister when India unveiled its liberalisation in 1991.
有關執掌國家財政大權的事宜,已經在近幾年移交給了曼莫尼·辛格總理。與76歲的穆克吉相比,已79歲高齡的辛格更欠年齡上的優勢,但他曾在1991年時任財政部長,那時的印度正在經歷一系列的經濟自由化改革,可以說辛格對于這場變革也是功不可沒。
At the end of his career, the hope is that Mr Singh makes a stand and rams through budget cuts and vital changes on tax and foreign investment. “It could make a difference,” says an official. “He has a lot of credibility. It is an area that is close to his heart and his reputation will be much more on the line… The situation is tough so there is a limit to what can be done, but it is a mood-lifter.” His party, Congress, which leads the ruling coalition and is run by Sonia Gandhi, its hereditary chief, is lukewarm about making tough decisions. But there are signs that it may have successfully wooed one or two smaller parties outside its present coalition, which may help it push tricky changes through parliament.
而辛格也被許多人寄望,能夠在執政末期再加把力,促成預算削減和有關稅制與外資的改革上。“局面一定會有所改變,”一位官員預測到,“他在這些議題上已經積累了不少經驗和功績,這是他的心之所向,但他的名譽也將會經受更多考驗,很有可能晚節不保。目前形式仍然嚴峻,因此真正能夠落實的項目也十分有限。但不管怎么說,這是一種士氣上的鼓舞。”而主導聯合政府、接任亡夫之位的領袖索尼婭·甘地所領導的印度國大黨及議會對做出這些艱難決定的態度不溫不火,但也有跡象顯示,一些小型聯合執政外的在野黨則被這些議題吸引過來,幫助一些具有爭議的法案在議會中通過。
The promise of a push on reforms has been made—and broken—consistently by the government for years. With a busy electoral timetable up to general elections in 2014, it may be harder to fulfil than ever. Still, others, stepping back from the hurly-burly, can see a silver lining in India's great wobble, particularly the fall in the currency. T.C.A. Ranganathan, the chairman of Exim Bank of India, which finances trade, says: “The exchange rate has moved in our favour. I'm fairly happy.” He reckons a weaker rupee will help spur a long-awaited boom in manufacturing. Kaushik Basu, the government's chief economic adviser, no slouch on the need for reform, agrees. A cheaper currency means India is “getting an advantage for our export sector”. Perhaps, in time, that may prove more important than today's firefighting.
印度政府在過去幾年中針對改革的承諾一直反口復舌,2014年的印度總統大選意味將會有更多的高層活動,屆時部分工作和議題將會更難開展。但仍然有人漸漸淡出唇槍舌劍,在印度如今經濟局勢的劇烈震蕩,尤其是貨幣持續貶值的趨勢當中看到了希望。主管貿易注資的印度進出口銀行主席T.C.A 阮甘那桑說:“我很高興看到盧比匯率正在朝我們希望的方向發展。”他認為,盧比的持續疲軟可以幫助完成一次久盼未臨的制造業昌旺。一向對經濟改革信誓旦旦的印度政府首席經濟顧問巴素也認同這一觀點。廉價貨幣對印度的出口業來說“可能是一種優勢”。時間會證明,這一切將會比現在的改革與保守派之爭更為至關重要。

重點單詞   查看全部解釋    
reform [ri'fɔ:m]

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v. 改革,改造,革新
n. 改革,改良

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junk [dʒʌŋk]

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n. 垃圾,廢舊雜物,中國平底帆船
vt. 丟

 
funds

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n. 基金;資金,現金(fund的復數) v. 提供資金

 
inspection [in'spekʃən]

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n. 檢查,視察

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credibility [.kredi'biliti]

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n. 可信,確實性,可靠

 
controversial [.kɔntrə'və:ʃəl]

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adj. 引起爭論的,有爭議的

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decline [di'klain]

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n. 衰微,跌落; 晚年
v. 降低,婉謝

 
consistently [kən'sistəntli]

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adj. 一致的,始終如一的

 
stint [stint]

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v. 節省,限制,停止 n. 節約,限制,定額的工作 n

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disastrous [di'zɑ:strəs]

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adj. 災難性的

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