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Finance and Economics；Inflation around the world；Parsing prices；
財經；全球通脹；價格分析
Rising inflation is not as worrisome as it appears, at least for now.
通脹沒有看上去那么可怕，至少現在如此。
Inflation is back. Despite a weak recovery in much of the world, the threat of rising prices preoccupies policymakers and the public. Concerns are greatest in emerging markets. Inflation stands at 4.6% in China and 5.9% in Brazil; in India it is almost 10%, if below last year's high. But it is on the rich world's agenda, too (see chart).
通脹回來了。盡管世界上大部分地區有略微的恢復，但是價格上漲的威脅仍縈繞在政策制定者和公眾的心頭。這種焦慮在新興市場最為嚴重。中國通脹率維持在4.6%，巴西是5.9%,在印度，如果說通脹率比去年最高點低的話也達到了近10%。但是，通脹也提上了富國的議事日程。（見圖）
Euro-area inflation hit 2.4% in January, according to data out this week. Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, has been talking tough, recalling the ECB's July 2008 rate rise when concern over inflation trumped a wobbling economy. In Britain inflation has been above its 2% target since December 2009 and stood at 3.7% in December. Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, gave warning in January that it will soon climb to 4-5%. Even in America, where inflation has been at historic lows, it jumped to 1.5% at the end of last year.
根據本周發布的數據，歐元區1月份的通脹率達2.4%。歐洲中央銀行行長讓-克羅德·特里謝（Jean-Claude Trichet）回憶起歐洲央行2008年7月上調利率，那時通脹的憂慮超過了了搖搖欲墜的經濟。在英國，通脹從2009年12月起通脹已超過其2%的目標，2010年12月保持在3.7%。英國央行行長默文·金（Mervyn King）1月警告通脹率很快就會攀升至4-5%。甚至在通脹率一直位于歷史最低點的美國去年年底也上漲到1.5%。
Much of the surge in inflation reflects dearer commodities. As well as oil and food, metals prices have been soaring: the price of copper hit a series of record highs this week. More expensive raw materials will work their way through the supply chain over the coming months, pushing up on inflation. Another part of the story in Europe is the effort to plug fiscal gaps by increasing VAT, a consumption tax. A hike in VAT at the start of the year will have driven prices higher in Britain in January.
通脹的急劇上升反映出商品的日益昂貴。金屬、油和食品價格一直飛漲：本周銅價創一系列歷史最高。在未來幾月，更多的昂貴的原材料會通過供應鏈推高通脹率。歐洲正增加增值稅（一種消費稅）以填補財政赤字。倫敦新年伊始增值稅的增長將推動1月價格水平上漲。
A rise in commodity prices or taxes has only a temporary effect on inflation, however, with the price rise dropping out of annual comparisons after a year. The stuff of nightmares for central bankers is that this leads to a more pernicious type of inflation. Price rises change expectations of inflation, leading workers to bid for wage increases that preserve their buying power and firms to push through price increases, generating a vicious spiral.
然而，商品價格或稅收的增長只能暫時影響通脹，因為一年后價格上漲將不具可比性。讓央行行長們夜不能寐的是這將導致一種更惡性的通脹。價格上漲改變通脹預期，致使工人為維持購買力而要求漲工資，企業推動價格上漲，從而產生一個惡性工資——價格螺旋。
These “second-round effects” are worth losing sleep over, but only when there is already inflationary pressure in the wider economy, from a tight labour market and firms running factories at full pelt. Such overheating seems some way off for advanced economies. The unemployment rate is in double digits in the euro area, above 9% in America and 7.9% in Britain. Wage growth has been weak, running below 1% in the euro zone and at around 2% in America and Britain.
只有勞動力市場緊縮，企業利用全部產能，致使在更大范圍的經濟已經存在通脹壓力時，這些“第二輪效應”才值得人們為之輾轉反側。這種過熱似乎對發達國家來說遙不可及。歐元區失業率達兩位數，在美國超過9%，在英國超過7.9%。工資漲幅不大，歐元區不到1%，而美國和英國在2%左右。
Inflation expectations have edged up a little in recent months. But even if workers expected inflation to let rip, they would be in a bind. Karen Ward of HSBC reckons anxious employees won't ask for more pay for fear that they will end up getting the sack instead.
通脹預期在最近幾個月已經略微加強。但是即使工人預期通脹會失控，他們仍無能為力。匯豐銀行的Karen Ward估計，焦急的員工因為害怕被解雇而不會要求加薪。
Rich-world economies are also running well below capacity. According to the OECD, in 2010 the G7 economies were anywhere between 2.4% (Japan) and 4.7% (Italy) below potential output. Such estimates are notoriously imprecise. But if the recovery had already eliminated excess capacity they would be in the wrong city, not just the wrong ballpark.
發達國家經濟經濟資源遠未達到充分利用。根據經濟合作發展組織（OECD），2010年七國集團經濟實際產出低于潛在產出，差額為2.4%（日本）至4.7%（意大利）之間。那類估計十分不準確。但是如果復蘇已經消除過剩產能，則錯誤之處就不僅是細枝末節而是大前提就錯了。
The story is very different in emerging economies. Many of these got back to their pre-crisis levels of output in 2009. With capacity constraints starting to bite, underlying inflation is on the up. Households' inflation expectations are also rising. In China they are at their highest for over a decade and there are signs of growing wage pressure. Higher wages are not, by themselves, a bad thing, especially in a country like China where pay has for years failed to keep pace with rapid productivity growth. The danger comes when loose monetary conditions and an overheating economy mean prices and wages chase each other upward.
新興市場的情況大為不同。很多新型經濟體于2009年恢復到危機前的產出水平。產能水平開始起限制作用，通脹開始上升。居民的通脹預期也在增長。中國通脹已達十多年來最高水平出現工資上漲壓力的跡象。更高工資本身并不是件壞事，尤其是在中國這樣一個多年工資增長趕不上生產力增長的國家。但寬松的貨幣狀況和過熱的經濟意味著價格和工資彼此追趕螺旋上升時，危險就來了。
To prevent that, central bankers have been fighting back with higher interest rates and higher reserve requirements. The Brazilian and Indian central banks raised rates last month; in total, they have now hiked their policy rates by 2.5 and 1.75 percentage points respectively. China's central bank recently raised reserve requirements for the seventh time in a year.
為了控制工資——價格螺旋上升，央行的銀行家們一直通過加息和上調準備金率予以回擊。上月巴西和印度央行上調利率；現在他們已經分別上調2.5個百分點和1.75個百分點。中國央行最近進行了年內第七次上調準備金率。
For all that, monetary conditions remain extraordinarily loose. According to JPMorgan Chase, real policy rates in emerging economies—the official interest rate minus core consumer-price inflation—are at their lowest level since 2000. Core consumer-price inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) remains below its 2008 levels. But vigilance is needed. A continuation of booming growth and cheap money will cause trouble in the end.
盡管有上述一切措施，貨幣狀況依然十分寬松，摩根大通表示，新興市場的實際利率（名義利率減核心消費價格通脹率）達到2000年以來的最低點。核心消費價格通脹率（不包括食品和能源價格）保持在2008年水平以下。但是警惕是需要的。最終，持續的經濟過熱和貨幣貶值將造成麻煩。
