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經(jīng)濟學人:波音公司的不幸 噩夢般的客機

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IT WAS tempting fate to call an ambitious new aircraft the "Dreamliner". A combination of radical technology and a novel outsourced system of manufacture has turned the Boeing 787 into a nightmare.

把一架充滿雄心的新型飛機稱為"夢幻客機",這一舉動是種不必要的冒險。高端前沿技術和新型外包制造流程結合在一起,把波音787客機拖入進了夢魘。
Since its launch in December 2003, delay has piled on delay. The 787's seal of approval from the American and European aviation authorities on August 26th and its first delivery—to All Nippon Airways in late September—come more than three years behind schedule.
從2003年十二月研發(fā)開始以來,延期就一再發(fā)生。波音787客機在8月26日才通過美國和歐洲航空當局的審批。第一批787客機將在9月下旬才能交付給全日空航空公司,這比預計日期晚了三年多。
Nor do the company's woes end there: it now faces the difficult task of ramping up production and delivering 787s to impatient customers. Three dozen part-finished 787s are lying around airfields by Boeing's Everett factory north of Seattle, with ten more inside. The original plan was to have delivered over 100 787s by the end of 2009. Instead the company will be lucky to dispatch seven by the end of this year, and it will be late 2013 before production reaches the ten planes a month needed to break into profit.
波音公司的災難還遠未結束。當前的難題是如何提高產(chǎn)量并及時把成品787客機交付給早等得不耐煩的客戶手上。在位于西雅圖的埃弗雷特波音組裝廠內(nèi),停機坪上爬著三十六架部分完成的787客機,廠房內(nèi)還停著十多架。原計劃在2009年底交付一百多架787客機,現(xiàn)在看,能在今年年底交付七架,波音就算是走運了。波音想要盈利必須月產(chǎn)十架飛機,而要達到這一產(chǎn)量至少要等到2013年底才行。
The delays were caused by suppliers. Vought in America and Alenia in Italy delivered defective chunks of the new composite plastic fuselage. Vought struggled so much that Boeing had to buy it. There were also hitches in the supply of smaller parts such as fasteners. Delays, reworking and compensation to customers all burned cash. Inventory costs at Boeing Commercial Airplanes swelled from about $17 billion in December 2009 to more than $24 billion by December 2010.
供應商導致了客機交付的延遲。美國的沃特公司和意大利的阿列尼亞公司所提供的新型合成塑料機身部件存有缺陷。沃特公司對此反應激烈,據(jù)理力爭,最后波音不得不買下了這些部件。就連安全帶這樣的小配件,在供應上也出過小差池。供件延期,重新制造,客戶賠款,件件都要花錢。波音商業(yè)飛機的庫存費用從2009年12月約170億美元增長到了2010年12月的240多億美元。
Bernstein, a research firm, estimates that Boeing will not start making money until it delivers its 45th aircraft, and the overall programme will not earn a profit until 1,000 aircraft have been delivered. Boeing officials suggest that this is too pessimistic. More details should emerge in October, with Boeing's third-quarter results.
研究機構伯恩斯坦估計:在第45架787客機交付使用后,波音公司才能開始盈利。交付使用一千架787客機后,整個項目計劃才有利潤可言。波音官員給出的回應是此種預測太過悲觀,更多的細節(jié)應該會隨著10月份波音第三季度財務報告的公布而浮出水面。
The Dreamliner's delays are especially painful because its launch was Boeing's most successful ever. Attracted by the new plane's promise of fuel economy—20% better than competitors—customers flocked to order more than 950. The strong plastic fuselage also allows for a nicer cabin with bigger windows and fresher, less pressurised air. The current order book is still 821 after cancellations. But early orders were all booked either at discounted launch prices or at levels set before the plane's production costs soared, and Boeing has little hope of putting up the price.
"夢幻客機"曾被看成是波音公司有史以來最成功的客機,因此這架客機的種種延遲顯得尤為讓人痛心。比其它同類客機多省20%的燃油,這一經(jīng)濟耗能的承諾,吸引來眾多客戶,他們一窩蜂地訂購了950多架787客機。得益于堅固的塑料機身,波音787客機擁有更為舒適的客艙,更大的舷窗,過濾出更新鮮的空氣,同時機艙內(nèi)空氣壓縮的比重會更低。現(xiàn)在787客機的訂單刨去已取消的,還有821架。但是,早期訂單所定價格無一例外地要么就是研發(fā)時期的折扣價,要么就是在客機制造成本飚升前制定的各種價格。而且,波音想要提價的希望,能實現(xiàn)的可能性微乎其微。
Hopes were high in 2003 that the Dreamliner's revolutionary plastic airframe would make for easier assembly than conventional aluminium ones. This may yet prove to be true, as even Airbus has opted to follow Boeing, switching to plastic in its new aircraft. Privately, Boeing officials admit that an all-new plane, a new technology and a new way of working with manufacturers (which involved risk-sharing), was too much novelty all at once.
2003年,人們對"夢幻客機"的期望值很高。這在于其革命性的塑料骨干比傳統(tǒng)鋁質(zhì)骨干更容易裝配。就連老對手空客也效仿波音,在其新型飛機上采用塑料機身,這也許能證明這種在技術上的轉變是正確的。私下里,波音官員們承認,一架全新的飛機,一項新型的技術,再加上一種同廠商合作的新型制作模式(合作廠商也要承擔風險),一次性疊加上的新型元素實在太多了。
The nightmare is having knock-on effects. On August 29th Boeing's board approved the launch of an upgraded version of its best-selling 737 single-aisle model, to be called the 737 MAX. This is a sign that Boeing is playing catch-up with Airbus, which has won over 1,200 orders for its re-engined single-aisle A320. Boeing had been hoping to hold off until it could offer an all-new single-aisle aircraft, based on the 787's plastic technology. But in July American Airlines—one of Boeing's core customers—decided to give Airbus the lion's share of its order (the world's biggest) to renew its single-aisle fleet. Boeing had to scale back its ambitions. "We have the technology," says an insider. "But the lesson of the 787 is that we could not get the production up to scratch in time."
這場噩夢的連鎖效應正在逐漸顯現(xiàn)。8月29日,波音董事會批準以旗下最暢銷的737單行通道飛機為藍本,推出其升級版,并命名為737 MAX。這是波音就要追趕空客的信號。空客公司旗下重新改裝引擎的A320單行通道飛機贏得了超過1200張訂單。波音之前曾希望在787客機所采用的塑料技術應用成熟后,推出一款以此技術為基礎的新型單行通道客機。但在今年七月,波音核心客戶之一的美國航空公司為了更新其單行通道飛機,決定給空客提供最大份額的訂單(也是全世界最大的)。波音不得不面對現(xiàn)實,把自己的雄心壯志壓了下來。一位波音公司的內(nèi)部人士表示:"我們有技術,但787客機的教訓在于我們不能及時生產(chǎn)出令人滿意的產(chǎn)品。

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