Finance and Economics;Microfinance in India;Road to redemption;The industry is starting to revive;
財經;印度的小額貸款;救贖之路;小額信貸蓄勢再發;
India'S microfinance sector was once touted as a saviour of the poor and a good bet for investors. The high point for the industry came when SKS—then India's biggest microfinance company with a $1.2 billion loan book, a third of it in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh—went public in July 2010. The $350m offering was more than 13 times oversubscribed.
小額信貸在印度曾一度被吹捧為是窮人的救世主,投資者的好選擇。當時印度最大的小額信貸公司SKS以12億美元的放貸額將這一行業推向了高潮,其中三分之一的貸款流向了南部州安得拉邦。該公司在2010年7月上市時,價值3億5000萬美元的新股被超額認購13倍多。
Things went downhill fast. Many in the industry admit that runaway growth spurred reckless lending to poor Indians. Just months after the SKS listing, Andhra Pradesh's state government accused the industry of strong-arm collection tactics that drove some farmers to suicide. It issued suffocating rules; almost all loans in the state were written off; business ground to a halt. But the industry is starting to revive, with regulators in a far more central role.
然而這一形式卻急轉直下。很多業內人士承認小額信貸的瘋狂發展刺激公司把錢輕率地借給窮人。SKS上市幾個月后,安得拉邦州政府便控訴信貸業中的暴力收賬迫使一些農民自殺。州政府隨后下發了遏制條例,使得該州幾乎所有小額貸款都被當做壞賬核銷,當地商業活動也被迫停頓了下來。但現在小額信貸業又將蓄勢再發,不過這次管理人員擔當著更為核心的角色。
Microlenders are attracting capital again. Grameen Capital India, a social-investment bank, says $144m of equity has been injected into microfinance groups in the past 12 months, more than double the amount in the preceding year. The International Finance Corporation, a multilateral lender, invested $18m in Equitas, a mid-sized group in the southern state of Tamil Nadu. SKS, whose loan book is now worth just $325m, raised $47.5m by issuing shares last year.
眼下小額放貸公司又在吸引著投資者。印度鄉村資本銀行是一家社會投資銀行,該行表示過去一年里已經將1.44億美元的股本注入小額信貸集團,相比頭一年要高出一倍多。多邊放貸人國際金融公司將1800萬美元的資金投入到了泰米爾納德邦一家名為Equitas的中型信貸集團。SKS目前的放貸總額僅有3.25億美元,其去年增發的新股籌集了4750萬美元。
Outside Andhra Pradesh microlenders' loan books rose in value by 33% year on year in the third quarter of 2012, according to the Microfinance Institutions Network (MFIN), an industry body. Southern states and the eastern state of West Bengal are new hotspots. Bandhan, a no-frills company based in West Bengal, now has over 4m borrowers and the largest microfinance loan book in the country. Analysts say the sector's outstanding loans are now worth $2 billion-3 billion, compared with a peak of around $5 billion during the boom.
小額信貸機構網(MFIN)的數據顯示,2012年第三季度里,邦外的信貸公司流向安得拉邦的貸款比去年同期上漲了33%。南方各邦以及東部的孟加拉邦是新的熱點投資地帶。孟加拉邦的基本服務公司班丹目前已經為400多萬人提供過貸款,人數上在印度排名第一。分析師說目前小額信貸的未償還貸款約為20到30億美元,而繁榮期時的峰值約為50億美元。
India's central bank is behind the renewed confidence. It released national guidelines for microlenders at the end of 2011 and has set up a licensing system. Although a bill officially appointing the central bank as the industry's regulator is languishing in parliament, these moves have helped stem what M.R. Rao, the boss of SKS, calls a “fear of contagion”, the worry that other states will copy Andhra Pradesh and suddenly draw up new rules.
印度中央銀行是促成小額信貸復蘇的主要原因。2011年年末,中央銀行就小額信貸公司出臺了國家指導方針,并建成了許可制度。雖然對議會來說,將中央銀行指定為這一行業的管者的法案令人難以接受,但這些措施卻幫助阻止了SKS老總所說的“蔓延恐懼”,即擔心其它各邦會效仿安得拉邦,也突然起草新規定。
The guidelines try to draw a line between profits and profiteering. Microlenders' annual interest rates are now capped at 10-12 percentage points above their own borrowing costs, leaving most charging 23-27%. Some charged 40% during the boom; dodgy local loan-sharks, the only alternative source of credit in many rural areas, have even higher rates. Microlenders are also barred from lending to anyone with more than one outstanding loan.
指導方針試圖劃清盈利和暴利之間的界限,規定小額信貸公司的貸款年利率與其成本利率之間的最高差額要在10到12個百分點之間,這使得大部分貸款利率處在23%-27%之間。信貸繁榮時期的年利率有時高達40%,而在很多農村地區,奸詐的高利貸主作為唯一的信貸來源收取的利率甚至比這還要高。方針還禁止小額信貸公司貸款給任何有一筆及以上未償還貸款的人。
But capping profits may end up harming the neediest borrowers, say lenders. Undertaking small transactions in remote areas is not cheap. Chandra Shekhar Ghosh, Bandhan's managing director, says he keeps costs down with one-room branches containing little more than plastic chairs. Alok Prasad, the head of MFIN, warns that others may ditch the hardest-to-reach villages.
但是信貸公司表示限定利率最終可能會傷害到最貧困的借款人群。在偏遠地區承辦小額交易的成本很高。班丹公司總經理錢德拉-謝卡爾 高希說,為了節約開支,他們的分行只占用一個房間,里面只有幾個塑料凳。MFIN的總裁阿洛卡-普拉薩德警告道,要是其他的信貸機構,可能就會放棄那些最難抵達的村落。
Some microfinance firms are looking beyond small, unsecured loans, which the central bank caps at 50,000 rupees ($910) a pop. Equitas last year set up a subsidiary that sells mortgages to poorer customers. Bandhan has similar plans. P.N. Vasudevan, the managing director of Equitas, says his housing loans, starting at 100,000 rupees, involve lower operating costs, in part because mortgage payments often get transferred via banks and do not require collection. If firms start to gravitate towards these lines of business, that could yet again leave the neediest behind.
央行還規定抵押貸款一次不能超過50,000盧布(910美元),但一些小額信貸公司的眼光卻沒有停留這種小額無擔保貸款上。Equitas去年成立了一個子公司,專門為較為貧困的客戶提供抵押貸款。班丹公司也有類似的計劃。Equitas的總經理P.N.瓦蘇德萬說他們公司的房貸門檻是100,000盧布,營業成本相對較低,部分原因是按揭付款通常是通過銀行轉賬,不需要親自去收賬。如果小額信貸公司把重心向這些業務轉移,最貧困的人群將再次被甩在后面。