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Books and Arts;America and Iran;Cloud computing;

文藝;美伊問題;云計算;

A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama's Diplomacy with Iran, by Trita Parsi.

《孤注一擲:奧巴馬的對伊政策》;特里塔·帕塞著;

With dark rumours swirling of an attack on Iran's nuclear programme, this new book by Trita Parsi is well-timed. The founder of the National Iranian American Council in Washington, DC, details American diplomacy with the Islamic Republic under Barack Obama. His analysis of the grim stalemate that has characterised relations between the Great Satan and the mullahs since 1979 is both absorbing and frustrating. It is a tale of missed opportunities, obduracy and short-sightedness, all which are pushing the Middle East towards greater instability.

特里塔·帕塞新作的面世,伴隨著針對伊朗核計劃的漫天謠言,來的正是時候。作者曾創(chuàng)立了位于華盛頓特區(qū)的伊朗裔美國人全國理事會,在本書中,他詳細闡述了奧巴馬領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的美國政府對伊斯蘭共和國的外交路線。自1979年起,“大魔頭”和“毛拉”之間的關(guān)系一直深陷僵局,作者對這一嚴峻狀態(tài)的分析既引人入勝又令人沮喪,書中講述了中東是如何因為錯失良機、頑固執(zhí)拗、目光短淺等缺點而一步步陷入更大的動蕩之中。

Under George Bush, America's relationship with Iran festered. The two powers collaborated occasionally in Afghanistan, but with America driven by the premise that “we don't speak to evil”, detente was a distant possibility. America saw negotiations not as a tool of diplomacy but as a reward to be granted only to those states that had proved they were deserving of them. Iran, grouped with North Korea and Iraq as part of the “axis of evil”, was not.

在喬治·布什領(lǐng)導(dǎo)期間,美伊關(guān)系交惡。兩國曾在阿富汗事務(wù)上有過數(shù)次合作,但隨著美國將“不與罪惡結(jié)交”作為外交前提,兩國和解變得遙遙無期。對美國而言,協(xié)商不是一種外交手段,而是一個嘉獎,只有那些能證明自己值得交往的國家才配和美國進行協(xié)商。作為和朝鮮、伊拉克為伍的“邪惡軸心國”,伊朗自然是不夠格的。

The inauguration of a new president who from the start promised the Muslim world respect and who offered the hand of American friendship to those willing to unclench their fist, prompted stirrings of hope, both in Iran and beyond, that this could be a new start. (Farsi speakers also noted that Obama means “He is with us”.)

新任總統(tǒng)在參選之初就鄭重保證,將尊重穆斯林,并把美國的友好傳達給所有愿意松開拳頭的伊朗人。他的就職演講給伊朗乃至整個穆斯林世界帶來了一絲希望,新的開始仿佛就在眼前。(伊朗人還認為,奧巴馬是“和我們站在一起的”)

But the bitter mistrust that divides Iran and America, and the domestic considerations of leaders on both sides, eroded that initial optimism. Time and again in negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme, America and its allies assumed Iranian duplicity and insincerity. For their part, the Iranians saw in America's outstretched hand only the determination to snatch from their country its independence, rights and potential.

然而仇視和不信任導(dǎo)致美伊兩國決裂,加之雙方領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人推行了一系列國內(nèi)政策,這些都撲滅了尚在襁褓的希望之火。隨著一次次對伊朗核計劃的探討,美國及其盟友們將伊朗視作偽善的騙子,而在伊朗看來,美國插手伊朗事務(wù),就是為了剝奪他們的獨立,權(quán)利和潛在的能力。

Even during the deepest chill of the cold war, America and Russia found ways of talking. Today a frozen silence stretches from Tehran to Washington. “When you don't know what's going on, and you don't feel like you have somebody you can communicate with on the other side of the table, you are going to revert back to what's safe…and what's safe in the Iran context is demonization and just general negativity,” explains an American official.

即便是在冷戰(zhàn)最僵持的時期,美蘇兩國也曾設(shè)法進行溝通,而今,彌漫在伊朗和美國之間的是冰冷的沉默。“當(dāng)你對現(xiàn)狀毫無頭緒,談判桌上又話不投機,你就會退回到安全的狀態(tài),而在伊朗看來,所謂的安全狀態(tài)就是將美國妖魔化,挑起大眾的消極情緒?!币晃幻绹賳T如是解釋。

Iran's reluctance to engage goes deeper: “Tehran cannot come to terms with Washington without risking an internal identity and legitimacy crisis.” Animosity towards America is written into the Islamic Republic's DNA. If the relationship is restored, “we will dissolve ourselves,” admits Amir Mohebian, an Iranian conservative.

伊朗的抵觸情緒則日漸深重。“伊朗要重回談判桌,就得冒著國家身份缺失和合法性危機的風(fēng)險?!睂γ绹某鸷捭懣淘谝了固m共和國的血液里,伊朗保守派人士埃米爾·莫比安表示,一旦美伊關(guān)系恢復(fù),“伊朗將會自我毀滅”。

But diplomacy with Iran, maintains Mr Parsi, has never been pursued to the point of exhaustion. Look at Libya (before the recent uprising), Vietnam and Northern Ireland, he insists, and the painstaking years of quiet discussions with each of them. The talks between America and Iran, a few weeks here, a fortnight there, have never matched that. The approach has focused on the nuclear issue to the exclusion of all others, a take-it-or-leave-it attitude that has always been doomed. Negotiations such as these succeed not because the proposals are flawless or because both sides play fair, but “because the many flaws associated with the talks are overcome by the political will to reach a solution”.

但帕塞表示,美方與伊朗的外交關(guān)系遠沒有走到盡頭。他認為,和(暴動之前的)利比亞,越南和北愛爾蘭,以及與它們多年痛苦而漫長的討論協(xié)商相比,美伊兩國間或進行的短期談判絕對算不了什么。美伊接觸的焦點一直圍繞著核問題展開,回避了其他問題,雙方態(tài)度也僵持在要么全盤接受,要么統(tǒng)統(tǒng)滾蛋的狀態(tài)。而縱觀那些成功的協(xié)商談判,并不是因為提議有多么完美,或是談判雙方有多么公正,而是“因為希望解決問題的政治意愿克服了談判中出現(xiàn)的種種缺憾”。

That political will, says Mr Parsi, has been absent. The mutual mistrust has left no margin for error. Neither has seen any domestic political benefit in pushing for a serious settlement. And now, with the tick-tocking of the nuclear clock growing ever more insistent, reconciliation looks less and less likely. The enmity between America and Iran, stoked by three decades of demonising each other, is no longer a phenomenon, concludes Mr Parsi. “It is an institution.”

帕塞認為,美伊缺少的正是這種政治意愿。雙方互不信任,因而無法容忍對方的任何過失,加之沒有任何國內(nèi)政治利益能推動美伊沖突得到切實解決。而現(xiàn)在,隨著伊朗核武器的日漸面世,美伊和解的可能越來越小。30多年來,美伊兩國相互攻擊詆毀,兩國間的敵對狀態(tài)已經(jīng)不再是一個現(xiàn)象,引用帕塞的話來說,“這已然是個習(xí)俗。”

重點單詞   查看全部解釋    
institution [.insti'tju:ʃən]

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n. 機構(gòu),制度,創(chuàng)立

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inauguration [in.ɔ:gju'reiʃən]

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n. 就職典禮,落成典禮,開幕儀式

 
assumed [ə'sju:md]

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adj. 假裝的;假定的

 
reconciliation [.rekənsili'eiʃən]

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n. 調(diào)和,和解
n. [會]對賬

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communicate [kə'mju:nikeit]

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v. 交流,傳達,溝通

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premise ['premis]

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n. 前提
vt. 提論,預(yù)述,假設(shè)

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doomed [dumd]

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adj. 命中注定的 動詞doom的過去式和過去分詞

 
conservative [kən'sə:vətiv]

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adj. 保守的,守舊的
n. 保守派(黨),

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solution [sə'lu:ʃən]

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n. 解答,解決辦法,溶解,溶液

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internal [in'tə:nəl]

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adj. 國內(nèi)的,內(nèi)在的,身體內(nèi)部的

 
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