Obituary;Wynne Godley;
Wynne Godley, British economist, died on May 13th, aged 83;
A certain ambiguity marked Wynne Godley. Was he at heart an aesthete, happiest making music in beautiful buildings among works of art? Or was he more naturally one of the sophisters, economists and calculators whose rise marked, for Edmund Burke, the passing of the age of chivalry? Was he by temperament a dissenter? Or just a typical scion of the British upper classes, an establishment man who played at being a rebel? Was he a determined pessimist, who took some pleasure in his reputation as the Cassandra of the Fens? Or a convivial, witty friend, who entertained with style and had a taste for gambling? Was he a shy violet, trembling before an audience? Or a controversialist who was hardly publicity-averse?
If the answer to each of these questions is at least partly yes, that may mean no more than that Mr Godley was a man of several talents, many interests and an intelligence to make good use of them. His first love was certainly music, for when he left Oxford, where he read politics, philosophy and economics, he went to the Paris Conservatoire and became a professional oboist. Performing in public, though, filled him with terror, which led him to give up his job as principal oboe in the BBC Welsh Orchestra. He turned to economics instead.
如果對上述每一個問題的回答至少有一部分是“是”,則也許只是意味著——戈德利是一位有幾份天資、多種愛好的男人,是一位有智慧對種種愛好善加利用的男人。他第一愛好無疑是音樂,因為當他離開他攻讀政治、哲學和經濟學的牛津大學后,他去了巴黎音樂學院,并成為一個專業的雙簧管吹奏者。可是,由于他在公眾場所表演充滿緊張,致使他放棄了在英國BBC廣播公司威爾士樂團首席雙簧管演奏員的工作。他轉向了經濟學領域。
That, anyway, became his profession. But his love of music never left him, and art remained a part of his life to the end, not least through his marriage to Kitty, the daughter of Sir Jacob Epstein. And though Mr Godley's good looks and elongated figure might seem to have been tailor-made for El Greco, El Greco being unavailable, it was Epstein who took him as the model for a huge bronze statue of St Michael that hangs on the outside of Coventry Cathedral, with the devil vanquished at his feet.
反正經濟學成了戈德利的職業。但他對音樂的熱愛始終不離不棄,及至人生終點,藝術仍然是他生活的一部分,尤其貫穿于他與愛潑斯坦(1880-1959, 生于美國的英國雕刻家——譯者注)爵士之女基蒂的婚姻生活中。此外,盡管戈德利英俊的外貌和高高的身材似乎是為埃爾·格雷考(十七世紀西班牙畫家、雕塑家——譯者注)量身定做的模特兒,但格雷考無福消受。把戈德利作為圣邁克爾巨型青銅塑像模特兒的是愛潑斯坦,這尊塑像立于考文垂大教堂外面,其腳下是被征服的魔鬼。
In Keynes's footsteps, up to a point
在某種程度上,戈德利是追隨凱恩斯的足跡
The devilish intricacies of economics Mr Godley seemed to overwhelm just as effortlessly. After a spell in business and a few years at the Treasury, he was enticed to King's College, Cambridge, which 61 years earlier another economist-aesthete, John Maynard Keynes, had joined as a lecturer, writing (with his mother's help) a letter of resignation from the civil service to his boss, a Sir Arthur Godley. This man was to become the first Lord Kilbracken and eventually grandfather of Wynne.
戈德利先生對于如魔幻般錯綜復雜的經濟學,應對起來似乎毫不費力。在商界和財政部干了一些年頭后,他神往起61年前另一個審美學家、經濟學家約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯(注1)曾經就讀的劍橋國王學院來,他在向其老板老板阿瑟·戈德利男爵寫(在其母親的幫助下)了一封文員辭職信后,成為了該學院的一名講師。那位男爵就是基爾布拉肯勛爵一世并最終成為韋恩·戈德利的祖父。
Mr Godley became best known for his outspoken criticisms of Conservative economic policies. In the 1970s he took the view, which he recognised as dissenting, that international trade should be, as he put it, “in some sense, managed” through import controls, adding unpersuasively that this was not really protectionism, since he did not want to reduce imports, merely the propensity to import; and protection should be “as minimally selective as possible”. More creditably, he correctly predicted that the boom generated by the Conservative government under Ted Heath in the 1970s would end in tears. He was also proved largely right in foreseeing the severity of the recession that came later under Margaret Thatcher.
戈德利因直言不諱地批評保守黨的經濟政策而變得愈加有名。在上世紀70年代,他發表觀點(他意識到此觀點不受歡迎):國際貿易應該像他所指出的那樣是通過進口管制實現的“某種意義上的管理”,他還缺乏說服力地補充這確實不是貿易保護主義,因為他并不主張減少進口,只是減少進口傾向;應當“盡可能最少地選擇”貿易保護措施。更值得稱道的是,他正確地預言到了上世紀七十年代希思治下的保守黨政府激發的繁榮,將以淚雨告終。對后來撒切爾夫人時期嚴重經濟衰退的預計,也被證明是大體上正確的。
These doleful prophecies, coupled with his very public loathing of monetarism, earned him no friends in government and the grant for his forecasting group at Cambridge was abruptly stopped in 1982. But he was hardly an outcast. Though not properly trained as an economist, he had proved himself as a macroeconomic modeller, and had been made a university professor of applied economics. He had also become a director of the Royal Opera House. By 1992 he was back in favour at the Treasury, joining the panel of independent forecasters known as the “six wise men”.
上述令人沮喪的預測,連同他對貨幣主義的公開反感,使得戈德利在政府沒有朋友,其劍橋預判小組的政府撥款也于1982年突然停止了。不過,戈德利不大可能成為被拋棄的人。盡管他沒有像經濟學家那樣接受正規高等教育,但他卻證明自己是一位宏觀經濟學締造者,而且還是一位大學應用經濟學教授。他也是皇家歌劇院的懂事。1992年,戈德利在一片贊賞中回到財政部,參加被稱作“六智囊”的獨立預測員小組。
On the face of it, this was not a turbulent life. Mr Godley said he had a lonely childhood, involving a violent maiden aunt and the “chamber of horrors of a British prep school”. Later, in his 30s, he lived life “through an artificial self” in “a state of dissociation”, which drove him into the clutches of a fiendish psychoanalyst. This in turn blighted his middle years.
單從表面上看,上述這一切算不上是混沌難馭的人生經歷。戈德利說過,他有一個陷于粗暴未婚姑媽和“英國預科學校恐怖屋”之難的孤獨童年。后來,在他30多歲期間,他過著“分裂狀態”下“自我十足虛假”的生活,這種生活驅使他成為刁鉆心理分析學家的掌中物。這種生活也相應地折磨著他的中年。
His background, though it might misleadingly be called privileged, was mixed up. The first Lord Kilbracken had been a protégé of a Liberal prime minister, Gladstone, but was a Conservative; and the second, Wynne's father Hugh, also a Tory, had been madly in love with Violet Asquith, the daughter of another Liberal prime minister. Hugh separated from Wynne's mother about the time he was born, and was impotent, anti-Semitic and alcoholic. Wynne's mother paraded naked in front of him and would tell him, as a child, of the intense pleasure she got from sexual intercourse. But he reached the age of 17 not knowing that women had vaginas.
雖然戈德利·韋恩的出生背景會讓人誤以為是特權階層,但其實是模糊不清的。他的祖父基爾布拉肯一世雖曾是自由黨首相格萊斯頓的門生,卻是個保守派;而他的父親基爾布拉肯二世休·戈德利也是一名保守黨成員,瘋狂愛上了另一位自由黨首相的女兒維爾莉特·阿斯奎思。休·戈德利大約在韋恩出生后就與韋恩的母親分居,是一個性欲低下者、反猶太者、嗜酒者。當韋恩還是一個孩子的時候,他媽媽在他面前展示她的裸體,并會告訴他她從性愛中獲得的強烈快感。可是,成長至17歲的戈德利·韋恩先生尚不知女性是有陰道的。
He was supremely happy at Oxford, where his tutor was Isaiah Berlin, to whom he said he owed all his higher education. But, he wrote, “Nora [his stepmother] shot herself in the head with a shotgun; my father, his entire fortune squandered, died alone in a hospital where the nurses were unkind to him; my half-sister was committed to a high-security mental institution at Epsom; my mother had a bad stroke and lived out her last six years hemiplegic and helpless, her mind altered. She told her nurses that they were ‘lower-class scum' and complained that I was ‘marrying the daughter of a New York yid'.”
在牛津大學,韋恩快樂無比,他的牛津大學導師是賽亞·伯林,他曾說過他所受的全部的高等教育都是從柏林那兒得來的。不過,他著述稱:“繼母諾拉用獵槍結束了自己的生命;我父親花光家財,在一家受盡護士冷眼的醫院里孤獨離世;我同父異母的妹妹被送進埃普索姆一家管理嚴格的精神病院;我母親嚴重中風,在偏癱無助中度過生命的最后六年,并改變了觀點。她告訴護士:‘他們是低等的賤人',還抱怨我‘娶了猶太裔紐約人的女兒'”。
Against a background like this, a little waywardness in the world of macroeconomics seems entirely forgivable.
在這樣的家庭背景下,在宏觀經濟學界中,戈德利·韋恩的些許任性似乎是完全可以得到寬恕的。