評論
打印
But complexity makes it hard to mark a path of action for everyone who cares—and makes it hard for their caring to matter.
但是，世界的復雜性使得我們很難找到對全世界每一個有愛心的人都有效的行動方法，因此人類對他人的關心往往很難產生實際效果。
Cutting through complexity to find a solution runs through four predictable stages: determine a goal, find the highest-leverage approach, deliver the technology ideal for that approach, and in the meantime, use the best application of the technology you already have —whether it's something sophisticated, like a new drug, or something simple, like a bednet.
從這個復雜的世界中找到解決辦法，可以分為四個步驟：確定目標，找到最高效的方法，提供適用于那個方法的理想技術，最后利用現有的最佳技術，不管它是復雜的新藥物，還是最簡單的蚊帳。
The AIDS epidemic offers an example. The broad goal, of course, is to end the disease. The highest-leverage approach is prevention. The ideal technology would be a vaccine that gives lifetime immunity with a single dose. So governments, drug companies, and foundations are funding vaccine research. But their work is likely to take more than a decade, so in the meantime, we have to work with what we have in hand —and the best prevention approach we have now is getting people to avoid risky behavior.
艾滋病就是一個例子。毫無疑問，總的目標是徹底消滅這種疾病。最高效的方法是預防。最理想的技術是發明一種疫苗，只要注射一次，就可以終生免疫。所以，政府、制藥公司、基金會都在資助疫苗研究。但是，這樣的研究工作很可能十年之內都無法完成。因此，與此同時，我們必須使用現有的技術，目前最有效的預防方法就是設法讓人們避免那些危險的行為。
Pursuing that goal starts the four-step cycle again. This is the pattern. The crucial thing is to never stop thinking and working—and never do what we did with malaria and tuberculosis in the 20th century —which is to surrender to complexity and quit.
要實現那個新的目標，又可以采用新的四步循環。這是一種模式。關鍵是永遠不要停止思考和行動。我們千萬不能再犯上個世紀在瘧疾和肺結核上犯過的錯誤，那時我們因為它們太復雜而放棄采取行動。
