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Into the land of the unknown
前途未卜
Global market turmoil continues after the rejection of the mortgage-rescue plan in America
美國救市計劃遭拒后全球市場繼續混亂
HOW many votes in Congress will the latest financial upheaval change? That is the calculus underway in Washington, DC, after the House of Representatives defeated the proposed $700 billion mortgage-rescue plan by 228 to 205 on Monday September 29th. Democrats backed it by 140 votes to 95, while Republicans opposed it by 133 to 65.
最近的金融巨變將改變多少國會的選票?這是繼9月29日周一眾議院以228票反對：205票支持挫敗7000億美元救市計劃之后，華盛頓正在進行的計算。對此項救市計劃，民主黨140票支持：95票反對，而共和黨則是133票反對：65票支持。
Bankers had been under no illusions that the tweaked Paulson plan would cure all the financial system’s ills. But most had seen it as a step in the right direction, and had expected it to pass. Its rejection sent stockmarkets into freefall. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down by 7%, and suffered its biggest-ever points loss. Perhaps fittingly in an economy that is in danger of sliding into depression, the only stock among the 500 in the S&P index that finished higher was Campbell’s Soup. The S&P closed 29% below its peak. Reflecting fears that consumer demand will wilt, shares of Apple Computer, creator of the iPhone, fell by 18%. The rout continued in Asia and Europe on Tuesday morning.
銀行家們對妥協后的鮑爾森的救市計劃會治愈金融系統的疾患不抱幻想。但是他們中的大多數認為該救市計劃是往正確的方向前進，并希望它能夠得以通過。救市計劃遭拒引起股市重挫。道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌7%，創歷史最大點數跌幅。或許，對一個有著滑向蕭條之危險的經濟體來說，標準普爾500指數股票里收盤唯一上漲的一只股票是美國湯品生產商金寶湯（Campbell’s Soup）就是再平常不過的事情了。標準普爾500指數比其歷史峰值跌29%收盤。iPhone開發者蘋果公司的股票下跌18%,反映出市場對消費者需求將會萎縮的恐慌。美國股市收盤后,亞洲股市還在下挫，歐洲股市的下挫則延續到周二早晨。
Worse, credit markets, already dysfunctional, were brought close to breaking point. Banks grew even less willing to lend to each other on Monday, and money-market funds fled anything with a whiff of risk. Some corporations are struggling to roll-over commercial paper, short-term debt issued to finance working capital, payroll payments and the like. In an effort to keep money markets from drying up, the Federal Reserve has doubled the size of a vital lending facility for banks, to $300 billion, and expanded agreements with other central banks that funnel dollars to lenders abroad.
更糟的是，已經運轉不良的信貸市場瀕臨崩潰。周一，銀行更為不愿互相拆借，一有風吹草動，貨幣基金就出逃任何投資項目。一些公司苦苦掙扎于結轉商業票據，發行短期債券來籌措流動資金，支付工資和其他費用。在維持貨幣市場流動性的努力中，美聯儲把一項對銀行的關鍵貸款供應規模翻番，達到3000億美元，并且延伸了與其他央行關于它們為在海外經營的美國的銀行注資的協議。
These unprecedented injections are aimed at easing concerns that weak participants in the interbank market will fail to honour their debts. But many banks are now assumed to be not only illiquid but insolvent. Last week Washington Mutual, a thrift saddled with rotten mortgages, became the largest-ever American lender to fail. And on Monday Citigroup agreed to buy most of the assets of Wachovia, an even bigger American bank, in a deal brokered by regulators. The pain has suddenly grown much more intense in Europe, too.
這些空前的注資舉措目的在于緩解憂慮，這種憂慮是：孱弱的參與者在同業拆借市場上無能力償還其所欠債務。但是現在許多銀行被認為不僅僅是流動性差，而且是無償付能力。上周，不堪承受大量不良抵押的一家儲蓄銀行–華盛頓互惠銀行（Washington Mutual）破產，成為美國有史以來最大的倒閉銀行。周一花旗集團同意購買大部分美聯（Wachovia）資產，美聯是一家比華盛頓互惠銀行規模更大的銀行，此項交易由監管方撮合。金融危機的痛楚在歐洲也急劇增強。
The no vote was a big blow to George Bush, Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary, and Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman. They gave dire warnings of the consequences of an unchecked crisis, in hopes of persuading Congress to approve an unusually aggressive and early fiscal intervention. (It took many more years for a systemic response to widespread failures of American savings and loan banks in the 1980s). But because the intervention is relatively early, voters have yet to see much impact from the crisis on their lives. “On Monday morning…the sun came up and a lot of people went to work, and [they] couldn’t understand what this panic was in Washington,” Paul Kanjorski, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, told Mr Paulson last week. It was far easier for voters to relate to $700 billion of their taxes being spent on a mess in Wall Street.
對喬治•布什，財長漢克•保爾森，聯儲出席本•伯南克而言，否決票是一大打擊。他們曾對不遏制危機的后果給出警告，寄希望于說服國會通過此項非比一般地積極地也是早期地財政干預。（上世紀80年代，對美國儲蓄和貸款銀行普遍破產的一個系統化處理耗費了許多年）。但是因為此次干預相對要早，選民們沒有意識到這場危機對他們的生活的重大影響。賓夕法尼亞州民主黨人保羅·坎喬斯基（Paul Kanjorski）上周對保爾森說道：”周一清晨“““太陽升起，人們趕去上班，他們無法理解華盛頓在恐慌什么。”對選民們來說，認同這7000億美元–他們納的稅被浪費在華爾街的廢物上倒是更為輕而易舉的事情。
Party leaders largely agreed with the diagnosis, as did the presidential candidates of both parties. But polls showed that voters were split; constituent phone calls and e-mails ran heavily against the bill. Administration officials and party leaders are back at work trying to find a way to get at least 12 members to switch their vote; the betting both on Wall Street and in Washington, DC, is they will succeed. (Passage in the Senate is considered less problematic.) But it should not be taken for granted. Without amendments, anyone who changes his vote will face fierce criticism when he seeks re-election. Any amendments to appease Republicans could cost Democratic support, and vice-versa.
政黨領袖們很大程度上同意對此次金融危機的診斷，連兩黨的總統候選人也贊同。但是民調顯示了選民立場的分裂：反對救市方案的游說電話和郵件紛沓至來。執政官員和政黨領袖重新回到此項工作上來，試圖使至少12個反對成員改弦易轍；華盛頓和華爾街都預計他們能夠辦到。（在參議院通過問題不大）但這不應當被看作是他們就欣然接受。倘若對該方案未加修訂，任何人改變自己原先立場都會在其再次面臨選舉時（尋求連任時）受到嚴苛的批評。另一方面，任何迎合共和黨的修訂都會損耗民主黨的支持，反之亦然。
