For the past few years, China, Brazil and others, with their high growth rates and large current-account surpluses, began to seem like desirable alternatives to developed markets. For part of last year, the MSCI emerging-markets index was even trading at a higher multiple of earnings than the index of rich-world shares.

在過去幾年里，中國、巴西和其它有著高速經濟增長率和巨大經常帳戶盈余的國家被看作發達國家理想的替代品。在去年的一段時間內，摩根斯坦利資本國際新興市場指數的市盈率比發達國家的股票指數高出數倍。

That is changing as investors lose their appetite for risk. Merrill Lynch’s most recent survey of fund managers found that they are now holding more bonds than normal for the first time in a decade (indicating a flight to safety). They also have smaller positions in emerging-market equities than at any time since 2001. In the past three months, says Michael Hartnett of Merrill Lynch, emerging-market funds have seen an outflow of $26 billion, compared with an inflow of $100 billion in the previous five years.

隨著投資者愈來愈不敢承受風險于是就發生了上述變化。美林對基金經理的最新調查顯示他們開始比平時持有越來越多的債券（這顯示他們是逃向安全之地），這種狀況是十年來首次發生。而且其在新興市場的股票頭寸處于2001年來的最小值。美林的Michael Hartnett認為，在過去三個月，新興市場的基金有260億美元的流出量，而之前五年則是1000億美元的流入量。

Falling oil and commodity prices are partly to blame. When these were rising, money poured into Brazil and Russia, which became targets of the “carry trade” (investors borrow in low-yielding currencies and buy high-yielding ones). Now oil prices are falling (dipping almost to $90 a barrel this week), they are undermining the carry trade and forcing Russia to prop up the rouble. Indebted investors are also being forced by their banks to sell as falling prices reduce the value of their collateral.

石油和（大宗）商品價格的下跌對此負有一定的責任。當它們價格上升的時候，就有大量的錢流入巴西和俄羅斯–這些地方也是”套利交易”（投資者借入低產出的貨幣來購買高產出的貨幣）的目的地。現在石油價格正在下跌（本周幾乎下探至每桶90 美元），這嚴重影響了套利交易而且迫使俄羅斯必須來支持盧布。隨著其在銀行抵押品價值的縮水，獲利的投資者同樣被銀行強迫賣出自己手中的貨幣。

Lower oil and commodity prices ought to benefit China and India, by lowering import bills and assuaging worries about inflation. Yet India’s foreign-exchange reserves fell by $6.5 billion in the first week of September as the central bank sold dollars to slow the fall of the rupee. In China, worries are growing about weakening export demand (growth in export volumes has fallen by almost half over the past year to 11%) and falling property prices, which seem to play a role similar to equity prices elsewhere. In the past three months, property sales in big cities were 40-50% lower than a year ago, according to figures tracked by Paul Cavey of Macquarie Securities. An agent for one of Hong Kong’s largest property companies says “confidence ended this week with the fall of Lehman.”

低廉的石油和（大宗）商品對中國和印度有利，可以使其減少進口負擔并緩解通脹壓力。然而隨著印度央行賣出美元以減緩其盧比匯率的下降，印度的外匯儲備在九月的第一周內減少了65億美元。在中國，令人擔憂的是疲軟的出口需求（出口量的增速比去年下降了一半，降至11％）和下跌的房價（中國的房價扮演的角色和其它地方的股票價格類似）。在過去的三個月，根據麥格理證券Paul Cavey的跟蹤數據，中國大城市房屋銷售量比去年低40-50％。一個香港大型地產商的代理商表示：”隨著雷曼的倒下，信心也已終結。”

All these countries have the comfort of huge foreign-exchange reserves. On September 16th the new governor of India’s central bank said he would continue to cushion the rupee’s fall; he also raised the interest rate Indian expatriates can earn on deposits at home and let banks borrow a bit more from the central bank. China’s interest-rate cut shows that its government, too, has room for manoeuvre. But the cut will have little direct impact on the economy because lending is limited by quotas. It was intended to boost confidence at a time of falling share and house prices. Too bad that among emerging-market investors, confidence is in short supply.

所有這些國家都可以拿巨額的外匯儲備聊以慰藉。9月16日，印度央行的新行長表示他會繼續阻止盧比的下跌。他還提高了印度的僑民在其祖國的存款利率，而且允許商業銀行從央行能借更多的錢。中國的減息顯示了其政府也有調控空間。但是這次減息對經濟產生的直接作用很小，因為貸款額依然受限。中國政府意在提升處于股價和房價下跌背景下的投資者的信心。但是糟糕的是，在新興市場的投資者中，信心嚴重不足。