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The price of stability穩定的代價

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但問題是這樣一種方法在壞賬迫使許多機構走到倒閉的邊緣并且無路可走之前,可能會沒有多大效果。而到那時,經濟會非常困窘而且金融系統會陷入混亂狀態。此外,布什政府反對強迫貸方減記其貸款。

The Treasury’s preference is to buy the mortgage securities at the heart of the problem, thereby putting a floor under their prices and removing them from the banking system. The Treasury already has the authority to purchase mortgage-backed securities underwritten by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac but wants to be able to buy much dodgier mortgage securities which have become impossible to trade.

財政部比較喜歡的方法是購買是問題要害的住房抵押貸款證券,從而穩住其價格并且將其從銀行系統里剔除。財政部已經開始授權購入兩房承銷發行的抵押貸款為背景的證券,而且還想購入更多已經開始變得無法交易的危險的抵押債券。

This approach has its problems. As Mr Schumer noted, “most troubled mortgages have been sold into complex mortgage-backed securities, which have themselves been split into pieces and sold to thousands of investors around the world.” To modify these mortgages so that homeowners could stay in their homes, the government “would have to be able to gather all of the pieces of every security and put the proverbial puzzle back together. This would be incredibly difficult.”

這個方法也有它的問題。如Schumer所說,”許多問題抵押貸款已經被包裝成復雜的抵押貸款背景的證券,而且被分成好多份,賣給全世界成千上萬的投資者了。”為了修改這些抵押貸款使房主能保住自己的房子,政府”必須收集到每種證券的所有份額,并將他們合到一起。這簡直太難了。”

The bail-out plan’s large size is designed to provide meaningful support. As of June 30th, $10.6 trillion of home mortgages were outstanding (the vast amount current). Once authorised, the money may not be spent: mere knowledge of the fund’s existence might restore confidence. And banks don’t have to sell their mortgages to benefit; merely having a credible market price for those they hold could restore the confidence of investors. And if the Treasury is astute in its buying, it could even make money. After all, thanks to investors’ panicked flight to the safety of Treasury debt, it can now borrow for close to nothing.

拯救計劃的龐大規模目的在于提供有意義的支持。在6月30日,已有10.6萬億美元住房抵押貸款未被支付(現在會更大)。即是經過授權,錢可能也不會花:現在對于這個基金的存在是否能夠重塑信心尚不清楚。而且銀行并不是只能將他們的抵押貸款賣給這個拯救基金;只不過有個穩定的市場價格可以重塑投資者的信心。然而,多虧投資者瘋狂轉向政府債券,使得政府現在能以近乎免息的代價籌集到資金。

The Treasury would have to recognise that it could lose a lot of the money too: there’s a reason no one wants this paper. At 5% of GDP, $700 billion would be larger than the net amount spent on the savings-and-loan clean-up in the early 1990s which came to around 3% of GDP. The final price tag of this bailout should be less since the government would eventually recoup some of the money owed on the mortgages. Even 5% of GDP is cheap compared to an average of 16% that banking crises around the world have cost in the past 30 years, according a recent staff study of the International Monetary Fund.

財政部必須認識到拯救計劃可能會損失不少錢:因為沒人想要這種票據。占GDP的5%的7000億美元比20世紀90年代花在儲蓄貸款清理的凈值(占GDP 的3%)要多。這次救援最終所花的錢可能還會少些,因為政府所持的抵押貸款最終會收回一部分資金。即是GDP的5%也比過去三十年時間范圍內銀行危機造成的損失要小。根據國際貨幣基金組織最近發布的一份聯合研究報告,過去三十年時間范圍內銀行危機造成的損失平均占GDP的16%。

Congressional leaders, who plan to go into recess at the end of next week, had previously said that consideration of such an ambitious initiative would have to wait until after the election. This week’s events have concentrated their minds. Republicans recoil at the thought of bail-outs but don’t want to accept blame for a market meltdown less than two months from an election. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had been heading for another sickening fall on Thursday until news of the plans sparked a turnaround and sent it up by 4% on the day. It jumped by another 3% Friday. The Treasury and the Fed would like Congress to pass enabling legislation this week.

本打算下周休會的國會領袖以前曾說過,如此雄心勃勃的主動建議需要等到大選后再予以考慮。本周的重大事件聚集了他們的注意力。共和黨人雖然對于拯救計劃萎縮不前,但是絕不想在大選前兩個月遭受市場崩潰的譴責。道瓊斯平均工業指數在周二一直下跌,直到有這個拯救計劃的消息后就掉頭上漲4%。周五又上漲3%。財政部和美聯儲希望國會本周能通過這項救助法案。

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