評論
打印
Good morning!
上午好！
I am delighted to be back at the Center for Global Development, and I would like especially to thank Nancy Birdsall and Lawrence MacDonald for the warm welcome.
很高興再次來到全球發(fā)展中心，我要特別感謝南希·伯索爾和勞倫斯·麥克唐納的盛情歡迎。
We all know that CGD combines top-notch intellectual firepower with deep-rooted concern for the world’s poorest people. It is an indispensible agent of economic development. Thank you, Nancy, Lawrence—and all of your colleagues—for the great work that you do.
我們都知道，全球發(fā)展中心擁有頂尖人才，同時又深切關注世界最貧困人口。它是經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的不可缺少的催化力量。感謝南希、勞倫斯以及你們的所有同事開展的杰出工作。
As some of you might recall, I was last here two years ago in the run-up to the Rio+20 conference on sustainable development. At that time, I talked about the path to a sustainable future that would require us to overcome a triple crisis—an economic crisis, a social crisis, and an environmental crisis.
你們可能記得，我上次來到這里是在“里約+20”可持續(xù)發(fā)展會議前夕。當時我談到，為了實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)的未來，我們需要克服三重危機——經(jīng)濟危機、社會危機、環(huán)境危機。
Today, I want to follow up on the third area—the environmental crisis, which is shaping up to be one of the greatest crises facing our generation and our century. It is also the issue upon which future generations will judge us.
今天，我想繼續(xù)談談第三個領域——環(huán)境危機，這正成為我們這一代和我們這個世紀面對的最嚴峻挑戰(zhàn)之一。我們的子孫后代也將根據(jù)這個問題來評價我們。
If we do nothing, we face a future that is grim indeed. Our fortunes will melt with the ice, evaporate like water under a relentless sun, and wither away like sand in a desert storm. And the planet’s poorest and most vulnerable people will be the first to feel the pain.
如果我們無所作為，我們將面對一個凄慘的未來。我們的美好生活將隨著冰面一起融化、像酷日下的水一樣蒸發(fā)、像沙暴里的沙子一樣毫無生氣。地球上最貧困、最脆弱的人將首當其沖。
Clearly, that is simply not an option. We must push back against these grave threats to our environment—as a matter of utmost urgency. This certainly calls for the international community to come together. Yet there is also a lot that countries can and should do on their own—this is one of my themes today.
顯然，我們不能讓這種情況發(fā)生。我們必須抗擊環(huán)境面臨的這些重大威脅——這是一項極為緊迫的任務。為此，國際社會必須團結在一起。但是，各個國家也能夠、并且必須發(fā)揮自己的作用——這就是我今天談論的主題之一。
What is the IMF’s role in all of this? Two years ago, I made a commitment that the Fund would work hard to provide practical guidance—a kind of “toolkit”—to help our members ensure that they are pricing energy responsibly.
基金組織在其中起到什么作用？兩年前，我承諾，基金組織將努力提供實踐方面的指導（一種“工具箱”），幫助成員國以負責的方式對能源進行定價。
Today, we are following through on that commitment by releasing a new book: Getting Energy Prices Right: From Principle to Practice. In effect, it is the toolkit that we promised.
今天，我們在履行這個承諾——我們發(fā)布了一本新書：《正確設定能源價格：從原則到實踐》。實際上，這就是我們承諾提供的工具箱。
In that context, let me talk about three things this morning:
所以，我今天上午想談談三個問題：
First, why environmental issues—particularly those related to energy production and use—matter so much to the Fund.
首先，為什么環(huán)境問題（特別是與能源生產(chǎn)和使用有關的問題）對基金組織來說這么重要。
Second, what we mean by “responsible” energy pricing.
其次，我們所說的“負責”的能源定價是指什么。
And third, how this principle can be put into practice.
第三，在實踐中如何運用這一原則。
Environmental issues and the IMF
環(huán)境問題與基金組織
Let me begin with why the IMF is concerned about the environment. The reason is simple: a degraded environment leads to a degraded economy. Environmental damage has macroeconomic implications, and implications for the design and impact of fiscal policy.
我首先談一談基金組織為什么關注環(huán)境。原因很簡單：環(huán)境惡化導致經(jīng)濟惡化。環(huán)境的破壞會影響宏觀經(jīng)濟，影響財政政策的設計和效果。
So where environmental damage is “macro-critical” it must also be “mission-critical” for us. Fossil fuels, we have learned, are a doubled-edged economic sword. The unprecedented improvement in global living standards over the past century certainly would not have been possible without the energy derived from these fuels.
所以，如果環(huán)境的破壞對宏觀經(jīng)濟很重要，其對我們的工作就很重要。我們知道，礦物燃料對環(huán)境來說是一把雙刃劍。上個世紀，全球生活水平空前提高，如果沒有從這些燃料中取得的能源，這根本不可能實現(xiàn)。
Yet we seem to have lost some ancient wisdom on the importance of balance and moderation.
不過，我們似乎失去了一些古老的智慧，忘記了均衡和適度的重要性。
For while the world became richer as energy fueled economic expansion, only recently have we come to fully appreciate the damage done to our precious—and irreplaceable—natural resources.
這是因為，盡管能源帶動的經(jīng)濟不斷擴張，世界變得越來越富有，但我們直到最近才充分了解，我們寶貴的、不可替代的自然資源遭到了怎樣的破壞。
Think of spiraling atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, which—according to the latest assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—will warm the planet by around 3-4 degrees Celsius by 2100, in the absence of firm policy responses.
想一想溫室氣體的大氣濃度的螺旋上升。根據(jù)政府間氣候變化專門委員會的最新評估，如果不采取強有力的政策回應措施，到2100年，溫室氣體將導致地球溫度上升約3～4攝氏度。
Think also of dirty air, which is caused mainly by burning fossil fuels. According to the World Health Organization, outdoor air pollution alone causes 3.2 million premature deaths a year. Meanwhile, relentless growth in vehicle traffic results in ever more productive hours lost in the grind of daily congestion.
想一想污濁的空氣。這主要是燃燒礦物燃燒導致的。根據(jù)世界衛(wèi)生組織的分析，僅室外空氣污染就造成每年320萬人過早死亡。同時，由于機動車交通瘋狂增長，人們每天將大量時間浪費在道路擁堵中。
What can we do? We clearly cannot reset the clock to a time before the industrial revolution—that is as impossible as it is undesirable. The only viable solution is for policymakers to protect rather than plunder the environment, to steward rather than sabotage our precious resources.
我們該怎么辦？我們顯然不能把時鐘倒撥回工業(yè)革命以前——這既不可能，也不可取。唯一的辦法是，政策制定者保護而不是掠奪環(huán)境，管理而不是破壞我們的寶貴資源。
As the American poet Wendell Berry put it, “To cherish what remains of the earth and to foster its renewal is our only legitimate hope of survival.”
正如美國詩人溫德爾·貝里說的：“珍惜地球的剩余資源，促進其更新，這是我們生存的唯一真正希望。”
But sometimes the poets need some help—in the form of clear, effective, practical advice on how to “cherish and foster”.
但有時詩人需要一些幫助——關于如何“珍惜和促進”的明確、有效、實用的建議。
As we all know, there is no simple solution here. Protecting the environment involves a multitude of moving parts. It encompasses, for example, research and development, infrastructure upgrades for power and transportation systems, and appropriate tax and regulatory regimes for extractive industries.
我們都知道，對于這個問題，沒有一個簡單的解決辦法。保護環(huán)境涉及很多方面，例如，開展研發(fā)工作，改進電力和交通系統(tǒng)的基礎設施，以及建立針對采掘業(yè)的適當?shù)亩愂蘸捅O(jiān)管體制。
Yet, in all of this, fiscal policy must take center stage. The message is simple: to get it right, price it right. Make sure that prices reflect not only the costs of supplying energy, but also the environmental side effects.
不過，在所有這些方面，財政政策必須發(fā)揮核心作用。結論很簡單：要想做對事，就要定對價。我們要保證，價格不僅反映提供能源的成本，而且反映其對環(huán)境造成的影響。
This brings me to the main entry point for the IMF.
這就是基金組織最主要的切入點。
We have already done quite a bit of work in this area. For example, we have been pushing hard for the elimination of energy subsidies, which—as discussed in IMF research published last year—are bad for the planet, bad for the economy, bad for the budget, and bad for social equity.
我們在這方面已經(jīng)開展大量工作。例如，我們在努力推動取消能源補貼。正如基金組織去年發(fā)布的一項研究所探討的，能源補貼對地球有害，對經(jīng)濟有害，對預算有害，對社會公平有害。
But we need to go well beyond the elimination of direct cash subsidies, and make sure that energy tax systems around the world properly reflect environmental side effects.
但我們遠遠不止需要取消直接的現(xiàn)金補貼，我們要確保各國的能源稅體系正確反映對環(huán)境的影響。
On this point, let me be crystal clear: we are generally talking about smarter taxes rather than higher taxes. This means re-calibrating tax systems to achieve fiscal objectives more efficiently, most obviously by using the proceeds to lower other burdensome taxes. The revenue from energy taxes could of course also be used to pay down public debt.
在這點上，我要非常明確地指出：我們需要的是更明智的稅收，而不是更高的稅收。這意味著，要調(diào)整稅收體系，更高效地實現(xiàn)財政目標，其中特別是將收入用于降低其他稅收負擔。從能源稅中取得的收入顯然還可以用于償付公共債務。
We would expect these sorts of tax shifts to have limited adverse economic effects—the whole point is to raise revenue in ways that make the economy work better by fixing market failures.
我們預計，這類稅收轉移對經(jīng)濟造成的負面效應不會很大——總的來說，就是通過糾正市場失效讓經(jīng)濟更好運轉，從而增加收入。
Of course, taxing energy is not the only route. We can certainly think of good alternatives like programs where governments sell rights to pollute. Cap and trade systems have been around for a number of years and, if set up properly, provide a very reasonable alternative to meet the same objective.
當然，征收能源稅不是唯一的途徑。我們當然可以想想其他好的辦法，比如，政府出售污染權的計劃。 排放總量限制和排放權交易制度已經(jīng)實行了若干年，若得到妥善安排，將提供一個能實現(xiàn)相同目標的合理替代方案。
