評論
打印
Smart Governance: Solutions for Today’s Global Economy
智能治理：當前全球經濟問題的解決方案
Nemat Shafik, Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
國際貨幣基金組織副總裁妮瑪特·沙菲克
Oxford, United Kingdom
英國倫敦
December 5, 2013
2013年12月5日
Good afternoon! I am so pleased to be here with you today, where I spent very happy years earning my DPhil in economics. This is a magical place, full of beauty and clever people. My only regret is that I left too soon.
大家下午好！很高興今天在這里與各位見面。我曾在這里度過非常快樂的時光，并獲得經濟學博士學位。這是一個神奇之地，這里的人們美麗而聰慧。唯一的遺憾是，我太早離開了這里。
Fortunately, my good friends Ngaire Woods and Max Watson have invited me to return to give the Annual Global Economic Governance Lecture. Let me outline the main points I plan to make today.
幸運的是，我的好朋友Ngaire Woods 和Max Watson邀請我重回故地，就年度全球經濟治理問題座談。我想概括地說一下今天打算談的要點。
Making the case for smart governance
為什么需要智能治理
Global economic crises tend to reignite discussions of global governance and international cooperation. The recent crisis has been no different. This is because crises lay bare the shortcomings of existing international rules and institutions.
全球經濟危機往往會引發新一輪全球治理和國際合作問題的討論。最近的危機也不例外。這是因為危機讓現有國際規則和制度的缺陷暴露無遺。
We have seen how weaknesses and failures in banks and capital markets can spread through the international financial system. The same is true for other challenges faced by the world today, whether we are talking about climate change, nuclear weapons proliferation, or health pandemics. What happens anywhere affects everybody—and increasingly so.
我們已經看到銀行和資本市場的缺陷如何可以通過國際金融體系蔓延。當今世界面臨的其他挑戰也是如此，不論是氣候變化、核武器擴散、或流行性疾病。任何地方發生的事情會影響到每一個人，而且日益如此。
So it is pretty clear that the world needs more, not less, international coordination and cooperation. But how to achieve this goal? In a recent article, the FT’s Martin Wolf discussed the importance of global public goods and how to provide them. “The states on which humanity depends to provide these goods, from security to management of climate, are unpopular, overstretched and at odds. We need to think about how to manage such a world. It is going to take extraordinary creativity.”
因此，很明顯，世界需要更多而不是更少的國際協調和合作。但是，如何才能實現這一目標呢？金融時報的Martin Wolf在最近一篇文章中討論了全球公共產品的重要性，以及如何提供這些產品。“人類提供這些產品（從安全到氣候管理）所依賴的規則不受人歡迎、過分緊張且不一致。我們需要思考如何管理這樣一個世界。這要求有非凡的創造性”。
Martin is right. We need to be creative if we want to make progress. We need smart governance if we want solutions that work for today’s global economy.
Martin是對的。如果要取得進展，我們必須有創造性。如果想找出今天全球經濟問題的解決方案，我們需要有智能治理。
I would like to focus today on three related topics. First, I will briefly touch upon the historical relationship between crises on the one hand, and governance reforms and policy coordination on the other hand. Second, I will discuss the response in terms of governance reforms and policy coordination that we have seen in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008. Finally, I will close my talk by sharing with you some reflections on how global economic governance might evolve going forward—how “smart governance” may provide the right balance between flexibility and effectiveness that the world needs to manage globalization.
今天我想集中談三個相關主題。首先，一方面，簡要談談歷次危機之間的歷史關系，另一方面，治理改革和政策協調。還將討論2008年金融危機之后采取的治理改革和政策協調。最后，與大家分享我對未來全球經濟治理可能如何演變的想法，“智能治理”如何可以在“靈活性”和“有效性”之間取得合理的平衡，這兩“性”是我們管理全球化所不可或缺的。
A world in transition
轉軌中的世界
The global economy is in transition. Global economic power is shifting from west, to east and south. Emerging and developing economies already make up more than 50 percent of global GDP (on a PPP basis)—ten years from now this number is expected to increase to 64 percent.
全球經濟正處在轉軌之中。全球經濟力量正在從西方向東方和南方轉移。新興市場和發展中經濟體占全球GDP的比重已經超過50%（按購買力平價計算），再過十年，預計此比重將提高到64%。
At the same time, trade and financial linkages have risen spectacularly. Cross-border bank claims grew from $6 to over $30 trillion between 1990 and 2008, and global merchandise exports of goods and services increased from $4 trillion to $20 trillion. While these numbers contracted somewhat in subsequent years due to the global crisis, the growth rates for the past 20 or 30 years are still impressive.
同時，貿易和金融聯系大幅度增加。1990年至2008年之間，跨境銀行債權從6萬億美元上升到30萬億美元以上，全球貨物和服務出口從4萬億美元增至20萬億美元。雖然這些數字在隨后的幾年由于全球金融危機有所收縮，但是，過去20年或30年的增長率仍然非同尋常。
On the production side, global supply chains have become the norm rather than the exception. A typical manufacturing company today relies on inputs from more than 35 different contractors from around the world—for some companies, such as car and airplane manufacturers, this number can range in the tens of thousands.
在生產方面，全球供應鏈已經成為一種常態，而不是例外。如今一個典型的制造企業的投入品由世界各地35個以上的合同商提供。有一些公司，如汽車和飛機制造商，所依賴的合同商可能數以萬計。
With the sharp increase in interconnectedness and the growing diffusion of economic power, it would have been reasonable to expect a simultaneous transformation and expansion of global governance. In theory, demand for global governance should have increased with rising levels of global integration in order to manage the rules of the game and reduce negative spillover effects.
隨著相互關聯性日益提高和經濟實力日益擴散，全球治理同時發生轉變和擴充是預料之中。從理論上講，隨著全球一體化程度提高，對全球治理的需求也會增加，從而更好地管理游戲規則，減少負面溢出效應。
But as we all know, global governance issues were on the backburner in the run-up to the financial crisis. Indeed, against the background of high growth and low output volatility—what has been called “the Great Moderation”—observers even wondered whether global governance was a concept of the past, and institutions such as the IMF, World Bank and WTO superfluous.
但是，正如各位所知，至到金融危機發生，全球治理問題從未引起足夠的重視。事實上，在高增長和低產出波動（被稱為“平穩增長”）的背景下，觀察人員甚至懷疑全球治理是否過時，一些機構如基金組織、世界銀行和世界貿易組織是否多余。
Only in 2008, when a disruption in a relatively small segment of the U.S. financial system spilled into distant markets and countries, and morphed into a full-fledged global financial crisis, it became clear that there had been an undersupply of global governance in the years leading up to the crisis.
到2008年，美國金融系統的小部分出現問題，遙遠的市場和國家都受到波及，并演變成了一場全面的全球金融危機，很明顯，在危機發生之前的幾年里，全球治理是不充分的。
Crises as opportunity
危機同時也提供了機遇
Five years after the onslaught of the global financial crisis, economic governance remains at the center of the policy debate. I would argue that this is no surprise, given that, historically, there has been a symbiotic relationship between crises and the evolution of governance.
全球金融危機沖擊過后五年，經濟治理一直是政策辯論的中心。我認為，這毫不奇怪，因為，從歷史來看，在危機和治理演變之間存在一種共生關系。
Granted, governance is often seen as evolving slowly and in an incremental manner and at a stately pace, while crises are intrinsically disruptive and revolutionary. However, as history has repeatedly shown, crisis often bring out the shortcomings of existing governance arrangements, while the fear of recurrence can galvanize support for reform.
誠然，治理通常以緩慢、漸進和嚴肅的方式演變，而危機在本質上是破壞性和革命性的。然而，歷史一再證明，危機往往會暴露治理安排的缺陷，而對危機復發的擔心可以激發對改革的支持。
For instance, in the wake of World War I, the League of Nations was created to promote international cooperation and achieve international peace and security, while experiences of hyperinflation in the 1920s motivated efforts to restore the gold standard. Similarly, the Great Depression and World War II triggered much of our current architecture of global governance, with the creation of the United Nations, IMF, World Bank, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, now the World Trade Organization. The traumatic experience of World War II also provided impetus for political and economic integration in Europe.
例如，在第一次世界大戰之后，成立了國際聯盟，以促進國際合作，實現國際和平和安全，而20世紀20年代發生的惡性通脹推動了恢復金本位制的努力。同樣，大蕭條和第二次世界大戰促使了目前全球治理架構大部分內容的出臺、以及聯合國、基金組織、世界銀行和關貿總協定和貿易（現在的世界貿易組織）的創建。二戰的慘痛經歷也為實現歐洲政治和經濟一體化提供了動力。
In the United States, the financial crisis of 1907 paved the way for the creation of the Federal Reserve, while the bitter experience of the Great Depression led to a major overhaul of financial regulation, with the passage of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1933, which separated commercial and investment banking, and remained in place for more than sixty years. More recently, the regional currency swap arrangements among ASEAN members known as Chiang Mai Initiative were created in the aftermath of the Asian crisis.
在美國， 1907年的金融危機為創建美聯儲鋪平了道路，大蕭條的痛苦經歷導致對金融監管進行重大改革，以及在1933年通過格拉斯-斯蒂格爾法案，讓商業銀行與投資銀行業務分離，這種分離保持了60多年。亞洲危機之后，東盟成員國之間建立了區域貨幣互換安排（被稱為清邁倡議）。
As with similar situations in the past, the global financial crisis of 2008 imposed large costs and hardship on affected countries. However, from a perspective of economic governance, it has also provided a window of opportunity to advance reforms and strengthen policy coordination. Did we manage to not let a good crisis go to waste? (a quote associated with Rahm Emanuel, President Obama’s former Chief of Staff, but like all great quotes was said by Churchill first). Let me provide a brief overview of what we have achieved in the past five years before looking at the gaps that remain.
與以往情況類似，2008年的全球金融危機給受創國造成巨大的成本和困難。然而，從經濟治理的角度看，它也為推進改革和加強政策協調提供了一個機會窗口。我們能讓危機白白發生嗎？（引述奧巴馬總統前辦公廳主任Rahm Emanuel的話，但是，與所有偉大格言都有更早出處一樣，這句話最早是丘吉爾說的）。首先讓我總結一下在過去五年所取得的成績，然后看看還存在些差距。
