評論
打印
New Words
新單詞
T-bond
美國長期國庫
bond n.
債
appreciate v.
增值,上升
consequence n.
后果
prediction n.
預測
Phrases & Expressions
短語
futures contract
期貨合同
stock market
股票市場
S:How are you getting along with your boss?
斯：你和你的新老板相處得怎么樣？
M:Mr. Davis? Fine. He's a kind man. You look excited. Any good news?
邁：戴維斯先生？不錯，他人挺好的，你看起來很興奮，有什么好消息呢？
S:Yes. Still remember I bought two T-bonds at 79-08 half a month ago?
斯：是的，你記得我半個月前買了兩張美國政府長期國庫券的期貨合約嗎？在70-08水平上？
M:You mean that two futures contracts? Of course. They had been worrying you for a whole week.
邁：噢，那兩張期貨合約，當然記得，它們不是讓你緊張了整整一個星期嗎？
S:That week was really terrible. The bonds price kept going down and down until the level of 77-30.
斯：那個星期可真是焦頭爛額。債券價格一直在跌，都跌到了70-30。
But last week, the price went up and up. Yesterday it has reached 86-18.
但上周又開始回升，一直在上漲。昨天都漲到86-18的水平了。
M:86-18? That is almost 12% more than the level where you bought. How much is one T-bond contract?
邁：86-18？也就是說比你買的時候上揚12%?一張國庫券合同面值多少？
S:$100 000 at 70-08. From 70-08 to 70-09 is $31.25 up and from 70-09 to 70-08 is $31.25 down.
斯：在70-80水平上，是10 000美元，如果降一個點，損失31.25美元l反之則增加31.25美元。
M:So from 79-08 to 86-18 means that... h'm, about $10 000 added, right?
斯：那么從79-08到86-18就意味著，．．．嗯，差不多增加10 000美元，是嗎？
S:It's actually $14 625.
邁：實際上是增值14 625美元。
M:Oh, great. Have you sold them out?
邁：噢，太棒了。你對沖了嗎？
S:Yes. I did it yesterday.
斯：是的，昨天我把它們賣出去了。
M:At 86-18?
邁：在86-18水平上？
S:Exactly.
斯：是的。
M:Unbelievable! Just two weeks, you've made big money.
邁：這簡直令人難以置信了。才兩個星期，你就賺了一大筆錢。
How can you manage to do that?
你是怎么做到的呢？
S:It's just I'm lucky.
斯：也許只是運氣好吧。
M:It shouldn't be so simple. Tell me, why were you so sure the bonds price would go up?
邁：肯定沒那么簡單。告訴我，你怎么那么肯定債券價格就會上漲呢？
S:You see, there are many ways to techenically analyse the futures market.
斯：你看、分析期貨市場有很多技術性指標。
One is to analyse the stock market. From the beginning of this year to October,
其中一個方法是以股票市場為參照分析。從年初一直到十月份，
the stock market has been in a process of continuous rising of price. Because of overbuying,
股票市場一直處于上升狀態。由于過度買進，
the shares has been heavily appreciated.
股票嚴重超值，
This surely will lead to the breaking of the market and the end of the two-year rising in the stock market.
其結果必然是股市的崩潰,從而結束為期兩年的股票牛市，
M:What does that mean to the futures market?
邁：這和期貨市場有什么關系呢？
S:One of the consequences is that most investors may be afraid they can't bring back their investment and they may shift their money to the bonds.
斯：股票市場的這種狀況導致的結果之一是股票投資者們害怕市場一旦崩潰，他們將無法收回投資，因此將資金轉向債券期貨，
The shift will undoutedly cause the bond price go up.
這會導致債券價格上揚。
Another consequence is that,
另一個結果是，
in order to save the stock market form breaking and to guarantee the financial repaying ability,
為了挽救行將崩潰的股市和保證金融償還能力，
the government will have to raise the interest rate and as a result, the bonds price will rise.
政府必將會抬高利率，這也導致債券價格上漲。
M:It's intersting.
邁：真有意思。
S:In fact, when I bought the contracts, the price was still falling until a week later.
斯：實際上，我買了期貨合同后，債券價格還在下跌，持續一星期左右。
M:Did you doubt your prediction then?
邁：那時你懷疑你的判斷了嗎？
S:Yes, a little bit. I thought it over again and I strengthened my judgement.
斯：是的，有點兒，但我想了又想，堅定了自己的推測。
M:You finished the contracts at 86-18. But if the price will go up further,...?
邁：你是在86-18的水平上結束了交易，如果它還會上漲呢？．．．.
S:It is quite possible. You know, it's also possible that it will go down.
斯：那很有可能，但也有可能下跌。
I think it's time for me to end the action.
我們只想該是拋的時候了。
M:It's really exciting. Maybe I will try it one day.
邁：做期貨真的很激動人心，也許有一天我也會試一試。
