評論
打印
Conversation Two
對話二
M: Cathy, chaos theory seems to be a branch of physics or mathematics.
凱茜，混沌理論看著像是物理或數學的分支。
You are an economist, so how does it influence your work?
你是經濟學家，所以它怎么影響你的工作的？
W: Well, in several ways.
以各種方式。
I'm responsible for financial development programs in many parts of the world, so forecasting long range trends and making predictions on the basis of present evidence is what I do.
我負責世界各地的金融發展項目，所以我的工作是基于現有跡象來預測長期趨勢并做預報。
Chaos theory was developed by scientists trying to explain the movement of the planets and changes in environmental conditions.
科學家嘗試解釋星球運動以及環境變化，從而建立了混沌理論。
Both of these things are also about making long term predictions on the basis of present evidence.
這兩者也是在現有跡象的基礎上做長期預測。
M: Are many economists involved in this field?
有很多經濟學家涉足這一領域嗎？
W: An increasing number.
數量在增加。
In the 1990s, many economists began to look at chaos theory as a way of providing models for forecasting.
上個世紀九十年代，許多經濟學家開始認為混沌理論可以建立預報模型。
M: What kind of "models" are we talking about here?
這里說的"模型"指的是什么？
W: Well, that's a good question.
問得好。
Because the basic idea of chaos theory is that there aren't any "models" as such—there aren't guaranteed forms, but rather patterns of change and development.
因為混沌理論的基本觀點是不存在這樣的"模型"，不存在確定的形式，而存在變化和發展的模式。
M: Doesn't that mean that forecasting is impossible?
這不是說預測是不可能的嗎？
W: No, but it certainly makes it more of a challenge.
并不是，不過這確實讓預測更難了。
Mandelbrot, who did the experiment with stock exchange prices, for example, noted that although the outcomes were variable, there were in fact certain constants.
曼德勃羅做過股票交易價格的實驗，拿他舉個例子，他指出盡管結果是變化的，但實際上存在某些常量。
What we have to do is make sure we know what these are and take into account all the possible valuables.
我們需要確定哪些是常量，并考慮到所有可能的重要因素。
M: But do economics and finance work in the same way as weather conditions or the movement of plants?
但是經濟學和金融工作能和天氣狀況或植物運動一樣嗎？
W: Well, no, of course not.
不，當然不同。
There are certain underlying similarities.
有某些潛在的相似性。
But we have to leave them for another time.
但這個話題我們下次再談。
Questions 5 to 8 are based on the conversation you have just heard.
請根據你剛剛聽到的對話回答問題5至問題8。
5. What is the woman's profession?
問題5：女士的職業是什么？
6. What was chaos theory supposed to do when it was first formulated?
問題6：混沌理論建立之初是用來做什么的？
7. What does the woman say about the basic idea of chaos theory?
問題7：關于混沌理論的基本觀點女士談了些什么？
8. What are the speakers mainly talking about?
問題8：說話人主要談論了什么？
