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I've spent most of the week with the flu. I'd heard flu season was starting early this year, but I wasn't prepared for it to be this early, in part because predictions for flu outbreaks are still not that precise—especially in germy places like here in New York City.
我這周大部分時間都在感冒中度過。我聽說今年流感季來得比較早，但我沒料到會如此早，部分原因在于對流感爆發的預測還不是很精確——尤其是在像紐約這種病菌泛濫的地方。
But a new approach, borrowing real-time analysis techniques from the latest weather prediction models, might be able to forecast the next flu season.
但是有一種新方法，即借鑒最新天氣預報模型的實時分析技術，也許能夠預測到下一個流感季。
Weather modeling draws on current conditions and filters to make predictions. Now that we're all Googling flu-related queries when we get sick, real-time influenza infection rates are available online. Epidemiologists can feed this info into models like the ones used for weather that can sort through the chaos to predict sickness or health.
天氣預報建模采集當前的天氣狀況，過濾信息進行預測。既然我們感冒時都在用谷歌搜素流感相關的信息，那么網上應該能統計到流感感染率。流行病學家再將這些信息組建成模型，像天氣預報那樣整理好混亂的信息，然后進行預測。
Researchers tested the flu formula against data from five actual recent flu seasons in New York City. Given online flu search information, they were able to predict the peak of the outbreak in the city nearly two months in advance. The findings are in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
研究人員針對紐約市最近五個流感季的數據，用流感公式進行了測試，他們能夠提前兩個月預測出流感爆發的高峰期。這項研究刊登在美國《國家科學院院刊》上。
Now, I would love a prediction of when I'm going to be fully recovered.
現在，我希望能預測到我什么時候能完全康復。
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