開始抽煙的最佳時間

親愛的經濟學家：

Dear Economist,

我有點想抽煙的念頭。抽煙的人似乎能從抽煙中獲得很多快樂。但我真的不想讓抽煙縮短我的壽命。那么，我可以在什么年齡開始理智地抽煙，以便從中獲得足夠的快樂，讓縮短的壽命變得物有所值呢？

I like the idea of smoking; people who do it seem to get a lot of pleasure from it. But I don't want it seriously to curtail my longevity. So at what age could I sensibly start smoking in order to achieve sufficient pleasure to make the shortening of lifespan worthwhile?

彼得(Peter)，來自倫敦
Peter, London


親愛的彼得：

Dear Peter,

你指出抽煙有收益也有成本，這一點是正確的，而這意味著抽煙可能完全是理性的。你也暗中承認，抽煙會上癮，因為你的香煙消費計劃似乎將要開始，而且再也不會停止。但這個消費計劃的時機可能不太好。首先，有一些證據表明，如果你在年輕時開始抽煙，然后在死于心臟病之前戒煙，你死于心臟病的風險就會迅速降低。（不過，不要問我關于癌癥的風險。我是一位經濟學家，不是流行病學家。）


You're right to point out that smoking has benefits as well as costs, and that implies that it might be perfectly rational to smoke. You also implicitly accept that smoking is addictive, since your cigarette consumption plan seems to be to start and never stop. But this consumption plan may be poorly timed. For one thing, there is some evidence that if you smoke while young and can quit before you die of a heart attack, your risk of heart disease rapidly recedes. (Don't ask me about the cancer risk, though. I'm an economist, not an epidemiologist.)

除了醫療問題外，還有社會問題。如果你現在20歲，而且完全不顧風險地抽煙，你看起來可能有些冒昧、魯莽，還有那么一點點性感。如果到你60歲的時候，人們看到你在吸煙，他們不會意識到你是聰明地從58歲開始吸煙的?？上У氖?，他們只會認為，你從未能把煙戒掉。

Leaving aside the medical questions, there's the social side. If you're 20 years old and smoke in full defiance of the risks, you still have a chance to look brash, daring and just a little bit sexy. If people see you smoking at 60, they won't realise your brilliance in taking up the habit at age 58. They'll simply assume that, pathetically, you've never been able to quit.

因此，我的建議是，吸煙的最佳方案是要么永遠不要開始，要么年輕時就開始抽煙，然后迅速戒掉。你的選擇取決于很多因素，其中之一是你對自己意志力的估計。這在事先很難猜測?；蛟S你應該告訴你的醫生，說你計劃開始抽煙，并問問他如何在開始吸煙后戒掉。至少，你會引起他的注意。

My advice, then, is that the optimal consumption path for cigarettes is either never to start, or to start young and stop fairly quickly. Which you choose depends on, among other things, your estimate of your own will-power. This is hard to guess in advance. Perhaps you should tell your doctor you plan to start smoking, and ask him for advice about how to quit once you've started. At least you'll get his attention.