但是，分析家認為，俄羅斯憲法明文規定了誰負責對外關系。根據俄羅斯憲法，總統將管理國家的對外政策，并且在國際舞臺上代表俄羅斯。

Experts say a more important question is whether Dmitri Medvedev, who owes so much to outgoing President Putin, will be his own man or whether he will be "Putin's puppet."

專家認為，一個更為重要的問題是，幾乎完全靠即將卸任的普京提拔上來的梅德韋杰夫是否能獨立行事，還是會成為“普京的傀儡”。

Jason Lyall is a Russia expert at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.

普林斯頓大學伍德羅.威爾遜公共和國際事務學院的俄羅斯問題專家萊爾說：

"I do not think we actually know the answer to this question right now. Medvedev is in some ways just a cipher - we do not know that much about him. He is portrayed as Putin's man, but he is just been recorded as saying no, the power runs through the presidency," said Lyall. "And so you might see in the beginning that Putin is running the show. But my hunch is that Medvedev is going to step in, he is going to develop his own power base and this may get into a real interesting situation where there are dual power centers in Russia. And I honestly do not know how this is going to play out. I do not think anybody knows yet how this is going to play out. It is going to hinge on the relationship between these two men. In the beginning, I think Putin is going to be calling the shots. Two years down the road - I just do not know."

“我認為現在我們實際上還不知道這個問題的答案。梅德韋杰夫在某種意義上還是個謎。雖然他被描繪成普京的人，但有記錄顯示他說不是這樣的。權力要由總統授權。一開始的時候，人們可能看到是普京在主導局面。“但是我感覺，梅德韋杰夫將進行干預。他會發展自己的權力基礎。這可能會造成俄羅斯出現兩個權力核心的一個非常有意思的局面。老實說，我不知道這會怎樣發展下去。我也不認為會有人知道今后局勢的發展。這要看兩人的關系了。一開始，我想普京會起決定作用。兩年后的情況，我就不知道了。”

Michael McFaul from Stanford University, says it is difficult to say whether there will be friction between the two men.

斯坦福大學的麥克福爾認為，普京和梅德韋杰夫兩人是否會產生矛盾還很難說。

"I am nervous about predicting tension between the two men who have worked together for almost two decades," said McFaul. "And yet, almost by definition, from the set-up of the relationship, moving forward, Medvedev gradually will have to become his own leader, his own president. And for him to just act as a puppet to the prime minister, I think over time that will be difficult to sustain. I am not of the view that some people express that you already see the signs of tension and that Medvedev is going to be some break with the Putin era. I see much more continuity going forward."

麥克福爾說：“普京和梅德韋杰夫兩人一起合作了快20年。要估計他們之間產生矛盾，我覺得沒底。但是幾乎可以肯定，從兩人關系開始建立、向前發展，梅德韋杰夫慢慢會成為獨立的領導人，獨立的總統。讓梅德韋杰夫只做個總理的傀儡，我想這個局面很難維持。有些人表示矛盾跡象已經顯現，而且梅德韋杰夫會同普京時代有某種切割。我并不這么認為。我認為將會有更多的連續性。”

But Marshal Goldman from Harvard University, says there could be tensions between the two men.

但是哈佛大學的戈德曼認為，兩人關系可能會產生緊張。

"Because once you have got power in Russia, one of the things we have seen is that power after awhile goes to your head and you resent being told what to do even if you're being told by what was your mentor," said Goldman. "There certainly should be a honeymoon in the early stages because Medvedev has been very close to Putin. Putin has brought him alone quite a bit and it may very well be that they can divide up responsibilities. But I think it is going to be hard for Putin to give up all the controls that he had."

戈德曼說：“我們了解的一點是，因為你一旦在俄羅斯擁有了權力，過一段時間權力會變成主導你的意識。你就會討厭被別人牽著走，盡管那個為你指路的人是你原來的導師。因為梅德韋杰夫和普京的關系非常親密，開始當然會有一段蜜月期。過去普京已經引導他走了很長一段路，當然有可能兩人會各自掌控一部分責任。但是我認為，對于普京而言，放棄他已有的所有控制權，這很難做到。”

In the long run, experts say two centers of power in Russia, some call it a co-presidency, are unsustainable. They say either the Russian constitution must be changed to give more powers to the prime minister or the political structure will remain the same with the president, in this case Dmitri Medvedev, holding the upper hand.

從長遠看，專家認為俄羅斯不會維持兩個權力核心或是有些人稱作的聯合總統的局面。他們認為，要么必須修改俄羅斯憲法，給總理更多權力，要么保持政治結構不變，讓總統、也就是梅德韋杰夫擁有更高權威。

上一頁  [1] [2]