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In Argentina an agreement with the imf that involves cutting energy subsidies cost Martín Guzman his job as economy minister on July 2nd.
7月2日，阿根廷與國際貨幣基金組織達成的一項涉及削減能源補貼的協議使馬丁·古茲曼在失去了經濟部長的職位。
It is not hard to see why governments are so sensitive to the price of fuel.
不難看出為什么各國政府對燃料價格如此敏感。
Latin America is a region of long distances in which roads are paramount in the movement of both goods and people.
拉丁美洲是一個距離遙遠的地區，在該地區，道路在貨物和人員流動中都起著至關重要的作用。
In Venezuela in 1989 an abrupt decision by Carlos Andres Perez, shortly after his lavish inauguration as president, to double the petrol price triggered days of rioting that cost some 400 lives.
1989年，在委內瑞拉，卡洛斯·安德烈斯·佩雷斯在奢華的總統就職典禮后不久突然決定將汽油價格提高一倍，引發了數日的騷亂，導致約400人喪生。
These events discredited Venezuelan democracy and paved the way for Hugo Chávez, a populist strongman elected a decade later.
這些事件破壞了委內瑞拉民主的聲譽，并為十年后當選的民粹主義強人烏戈·查韋斯鋪平了道路。
When Brazil began to phase out fuel subsidies, a truckers’ strike lasting a fortnight in 2018 brought the country to a halt and helped Mr Bolsonaro, who supported it, win that year’s election.
2018年，當巴西開始逐步取消燃料補貼時，持續了兩周的卡車司機罷工使該國陷入停頓，并幫助支持該計劃的博爾索納羅贏得了當年的選舉。
In Ecuador Mr Lasso’s predecessor, Lenín Moreno, was almost toppled by an insurrection by indigenous groups and leftists against a cut in fuel subsidies in 2019.
在厄瓜多爾，拉索的前任萊寧·莫雷諾在2019年幾乎被土著團體和左翼分子反對削減燃料補貼的起義推翻。
While across-the-board fuel subsidies may be good politics, they are bad policy.
盡管全面的燃料補貼可能是好的政治手段，但卻是糟糕的政策。
Since the better-off consume more petrol than the poor, they do nothing to reduce inequality.
由于較富裕的人比窮人消耗更多的汽油，他們對減少不平等毫無作用。
And they run counter to the region’s commitments to reduce fossil-fuel use to combat climate change.
它們與該地區減少化石燃料使用以應對氣候變化的承諾背道而馳。
It would be better to blunt the impact of inflation through targeted handouts to poorer citizens, but these lack the political impact of price caps.
更好的辦法是通過有針對性地向貧困公民發放救濟品來削弱通脹的影響，但這些措施缺乏價格上限的政治影響。
Many governments will find it hard to afford higher fuel subsidies for long.
許多政府將發現很難長期承受更高的燃料補貼。
While they may help with inflation, they add to deficits.
盡管它們可能有助于緩解通脹，但增加了赤字。
Latin America’s recovery from the pandemic slump was stronger than many expected, partly because of higher prices for its exports of oil, metals and foodstuffs.
拉丁美洲從疫情低迷中復蘇的勢頭比許多人預期的要強勁，部分原因是其石油、金屬和食品出口價格上漲。
The imf this week raised its forecast for growth in the region this year to 3%, from 2.5%.
國際貨幣基金組織本周將該地區今年的增長預期從2.5%上調至3%。
But the going is getting rougher: the fund cut its projection for next year by a similar amount, to 2%.
但情況變得更加艱難：國際貨幣基金組織將明年的預測下調了類似的幅度，至2%。
Inflation took off in the region last year, prompting central banks to raise interest rates.
去年，該地區的通貨膨脹開始加劇，促使各國央行提高利率。
As governments offered help during the pandemic, public debt rose from an average of 58% of gdp in 2019 to 72% last year, according to the Inter-American Development Bank.
根據美洲開發銀行的數據，由于各國政府在疫情期間提供幫助，公共債務占GDP的比例從2019年的平均58%上升到去年的72%。
Higher interest rates mean that debt is more expensive to service.
更高的利率意味著償還債務的成本更高。
Fiscal worries are “surfacing again and will become uglier in the second half of this year”, says William Jackson of Capital Economics, a consultancy.
英國頂級經濟咨詢機構凱投宏觀的威廉·杰克遜表示，財政方面的擔憂“再次浮出水面，并將在今年下半年變得更加嚴重”。
Apart from those in Argentina and perhaps Ecuador, governments do not face immediate financing problems, he says.
他表示，除了阿根廷，或許還有厄瓜多爾，政府都不會面臨迫在眉睫的融資問題。
“But at some point the region will have to carry out a fiscal adjustment.”
“但在某個時候，該地區將不得不進行財政調整。”
The political leaders will hope that by then oil prices are falling again.
政治領導人會希望到那時油價會再次下跌。
