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The short answer is that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the grid, did not properly forecast the demand for energy as a result of the storm. Some say that this was nearly impossible to predict, but there were warnings of the severity of the coming weather in the preceding week, and ERCOT’s projections were notably short. Brownouts last summer had already demonstrated the grid’s lack of excess capacity, says George O’Leary of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co (TPH), an energy investment bank.
簡(jiǎn)而言之，運(yùn)營(yíng)電網(wǎng)的得克薩斯州電力可靠性協(xié)會(huì)(ERCOT)沒(méi)有正確預(yù)測(cè)暴風(fēng)雪所引發(fā)的能源需求。有人說(shuō)，這幾乎是不可能預(yù)測(cè)的，但應(yīng)該在前一周對(duì)未來(lái)天氣的嚴(yán)重性提出預(yù)警，而得克薩斯州電力可靠性協(xié)會(huì)顯然預(yù)測(cè)不足。能源投資銀行TPH的喬治·奧利里表示，去年夏天的停電已經(jīng)證明了電網(wǎng)的備用容量不足。
Many Republican politicians were quick to blame renewable energy sources, such as wind power, for the blackouts, but that is not fair. Some wind turbines did indeed freeze, but natural gas, which accounts for around half of the state’s electricity generation, was the primary reason for the shortfall. Plants broke down, as did the gas supply chain and pipelines. The cold also caused a reactor at one of the state’s two nuclear plants to go offline. Transmission lines may have also iced up, says Wade Schauer of Wood Mackenzie, a research firm. In short, Texas experienced a perfect storm of equipment failure.
許多共和黨政客很快將風(fēng)力發(fā)電等可再生能源作為停電的罪魁禍?zhǔn)?，但這并不公平。一些風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī)確實(shí)凍結(jié)了，但占得州發(fā)電量一半左右的天然氣是造成電力短缺的主要原因。發(fā)電廠倒閉，天然氣供應(yīng)鏈和管道也垮了。寒潮還導(dǎo)致得州兩座核電站中的一個(gè)核反應(yīng)堆關(guān)閉。伍德麥肯茲研究公司的韋德·肖爾表示，輸電線路可能也結(jié)冰了。簡(jiǎn)而言之，得州設(shè)備接連出現(xiàn)故障，禍不單行。
Some of the blame falls on the unique design of the electricity market in Texas. Of America’s 48 contiguous states, it is the only one with its own stand-alone electricity grid—the Texas Interconnection. This means that when power generators fail, the state cannot import electricity from outside its borders.
還有些人認(rèn)為得州電力市場(chǎng)的獨(dú)特設(shè)計(jì)才是罪魁禍?zhǔn)?。在美?guó)48個(gè)毗鄰的州中，得州是唯一一個(gè)擁有自己獨(dú)立電網(wǎng)（得州電網(wǎng)）的州。這意味著，當(dāng)發(fā)電系統(tǒng)發(fā)生故障時(shí)，得州不能從其他州輸入電力。
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