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經濟學人:特朗普一著不慎,共和黨滿盤皆輸?(3)

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Whether the disappointment of the run-offs will prompt a wider Republican break from Mr Trump is unclear. Many thought that defeat in November would break his ironclad hold over the party. Not at all. Both of the incumbent Republican senators in the run-off called for the resignation of the Republican secretary of state who oversees the election for failing to endorse Mr Trump’s view of the world (which is that it is impossible for him to lose an election without unspecified masses of fraud occurring). They also expressed support for Republicans refusing to certify the results of the presidential election.

對參議院決選的失望是否會促使共和黨更廣泛地脫離特朗普,目前尚不清楚。許多人認為11月的失敗會打破特朗普對共和黨的頑固控制。但卻根本沒有。兩位現任共和黨參議員在決選中都要求負責監督選舉的共和黨州務卿辭職,因為他并不認可特朗普的世界觀(即存在大量不明的選舉舞弊行為,否則自己不可能敗選)。這兩位現任共和黨參議員還支持共和黨拒絕認證總統選舉結果。

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Mr Trump’s antics left both Republican senators in an impossible position—reliant on the flailing, departing president for his devoted voters, and unwilling and unable to cross him even as he descended into dark, anti-democratic fantasies. This tied Republican voters, most of whom say they believe the president’s theories about voter fraud, in chains of illogic. Why turn out to vote in a state that Mr Trump says was hopelessly crippled by fraud just two months ago? If the state’s Republican governor and secretary of state could not be trusted to safeguard the last election, why bother with this one? Why was the battle cry of the Republicans’ Senate run-off campaign to keep socialism at bay if Mr Trump (not Mr Biden) was to be president? Whether Mr Trump so demotivated Republican voters as to have sabotaged an expected victory for his party is hard to know in a race that is so close.

特朗普的荒唐行為讓這兩位共和黨參議員都陷入了進退維谷的的境地,他們依靠這位一直掙扎卻還是即將離任的總統來獲得其忠誠的選民支持,甚至在特朗普陷入黑暗、反民主的幻想中時,他們也不愿意、也無法與他作對。這就讓所有的共和黨選民成了一根繩上的螞蚱,即使不合乎邏輯,他們大多數人還是聲稱他們相信總統的選民欺詐論。特朗普表示,兩個月前,佐治亞州還因欺詐行為而陷入無望的困境,那為什么還要在這個州投票呢?如果佐治亞州的共和黨州長和州務卿無法信任,他們沒有維護上次選舉,那為什么還要讓他們操心這次選舉呢?如果特朗普(而不是拜登)要當總統,為什么共和黨參議院決選的口號是阻止社會主義?在這場勢均力敵的競選中,是否是特朗普削弱了共和黨選民的積極性,以致于破壞了共和黨的預期勝利,目前還很難說。

For Mr Biden, however, the prize is immense. “Georgia, the whole nation is looking at you,” he told a drive-in rally in Atlanta on the eve of the poll. “One state can chart the course not just for the next four years, but for the next generation,” he went on. With the Senate in effect under Democratic control, Mr Biden will have a much easier and speedier time in getting his nominations for the cabinet and federal courts confirmed. He will not have the filibuster- proof majority required to pass the sort of agenda that he campaigned on. But the Senate will pick up legislation passed by the Democratically-controlled House. Conservative Democratic senators like Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona will wield disproportionate power. But to the new White House they will be much more welcome negotiating partners than Mr McConnell. The stakes in Georgia were always much larger than one state.

然而,拜登卻得到了巨大的戰利品。投票前夕,拜登在亞特蘭大的汽車拉力賽集會上說,“佐治亞州,整個美國都在關注著你。”他接著說:“佐治亞州不僅可以規劃未來四年的發展方向,還可以為下一代規劃路線。”由于參議院實際上處于民主黨的控制之下,拜登將更容易且更快地確認內閣和聯邦法院提名。拜登將不會獲得議案通過權,而這是使他競選時提出的那種議程獲得通過所必須的。但參議院將接受民主黨控制的眾議院通過的立法。像西弗吉尼亞州的喬·曼欽和亞利桑那州的吉爾斯滕·辛內馬這樣的保守派民主黨參議員將執掌大權。但對于新的白宮來說,相比麥康奈爾那樣的談判伙伴,這些保守派民主黨參議員要更受歡迎。佐治亞州的利害關系總是比一個國家大得多。

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