Connecting security and economic priorities, the Democrats hope, might also attract the support of Republican hawks such as Marco Rubio, who have taken the same intellectual path, thereby shoring up the centre. This is a worthwhile aim, sharpened by the recent illustration on Capitol Hill of how hard-pressed the rational right is, and what might follow if it fails. It is also fuelled by concerns about the self-defeating politicisation of recent foreign policy— highlighted by the fact that neither of the two previous administrations mustered much bipartisan support for their signature schemes. This is a guarantee of changeable American leadership, off-putting to allies, and guaranteed to fail.
民主黨人希望將安全和經濟優先聯系起來,這也可能會吸引像盧比奧這樣的共和黨鷹派人士的支持,畢竟他們采取了同樣的智慧路線,從而支撐起中間派。這個目標很有價值,而且最近的國會山事件不光使其價值更加凸顯,而且也說明了理性右派的巨大壓力以及目標失敗的后果。對美國近期外交政策有自拆臺腳的政治化傾向的擔憂也強調了民主黨人的目標的必要性(外交政策的這一政治化傾向體現在前兩屆美國政府的簽名方案總是得不到兩黨的大力支持上)。這是美國領導層變化無常的保證,讓盟國望而卻步,而且注定要失敗。
Yet though Mr Biden has in essence accepted the Republicans’ thinking on China, it would be remarkable if many did support him. Foreign-policy realism has been largely replaced on the right by a never-say-die hawkishness, which permits no reasonable compromise, perhaps because it is partly intended to score points against the left. Mr Biden’s Middle East policy, which is likely to hew to Mr Obama’s commitment to containment and withdrawal, will antagonise Republicans especially. But, keen to accelerate Mr Obama’s aborted pivot to Asia, the Democrats will press on. This will probably involve resuscitating the Iran nuclear containment deal Mr Trump abrogated—triggering a new cycle of partisan sparring, as mystifying to America’s allies as it is self-defeating.
然而,盡管拜登在本質上接受了共和黨人對中國的看法,但如果真的有許多人支持他,那就非常了不起了。外交政策的現實主義在很大程度上已被右派中“永不言敗”的鷹派所取代,他們不允許任何合理的妥協,也許是因為其部分意圖是要打敗左派。拜登的中東政策很可能違背奧巴馬遏制和撤軍的承諾,尤其會引起共和黨人的反感。但是,由于急于加快奧巴馬曾經夭折的將重心轉向亞洲的計劃,民主黨將繼續推進。民主黨在推進過程中可能涉及恢復特朗普廢除的伊朗核遏制協議,這會引發新一輪的黨派紛爭,也會令美國盟友感到迷惑,因為這樣的行為自拆臺腳。
Such are the ambitions and intellectual currents of the centre-left team Mr Biden has assembled. His utterances suggest he has moved with them. Yet the question, which not even his long record can answer, is whether he is committed to the hard policy slog, with few easy wins, that heeding his advisers on China could entail. Especially as events crowd in. Mr Biden starts his presidency with great experience and goodwill. But, in such testing times, the 78-year-old’s leadership may be another source of uncertainty.
這就是拜登組建的中左翼團隊的雄心壯志和思潮。拜登的言論表明自己已經跟著他們走了。然而,即便拜登擁有漫長的從政履歷,他還是無法對一個問題做出回答,即他是否會在中國問題上聽從顧問們的建議,致力于推進基本無法取得輕松勝利的艱難政策。尤其是在這樣的多事之秋。拜登先生以豐富的經驗和善意開始了他的總統生涯。但是,在這樣的考驗時期,這位78歲的領導人可能是另一個不確定因素。
譯文由可可原創,僅供學習交流使用,未經許可請勿轉載。