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Take a look at the exit polls. In 2016, Donald Trump won 58% of the white vote. In 2020, he won 57%. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 89% of the Black vote. In 2020, Joe Biden won 87%. In 2016, Clinton won 66% of the Hispanic vote. In 2020, Biden won 66%. Yes, the total margins adjusted very slightly—and those slight adjustments can make the difference between winning and losing in closely divided swing states—but the overall message was crystal clear. Our tribal loyalties remain intense.
看看出口民調吧。2016年，唐納德·特朗普贏得了58%的白人選票。2020年，他贏得57%的選票。2016年，希拉里·克林頓贏得了89%的黑人選票。2020年，喬·拜登贏得了87%的選票。2016年，克林頓贏得了66%的拉美裔選票。2020年，拜登贏得了66%的選票。是的，整體差距的變化非常微小——這些微小的變化會在兩黨勢均力敵的搖擺州造成輸贏的差別——但總基調是非常清晰的，即我們對種族的忠誠仍然很強烈。
It's worth noting here the role of the Electoral College and the Senate. It's virtually certain that the GOP has lost the popular vote for the seventh time in the past eight presidential elections, yet at the same time, it has no real reason to believe that either the presidency or the Senate is slipping from its grasp. The result is a sense of increasing political frustration from a majority of the nation, with no real path to reform the system.
值得注意的是選舉團和參議院的作用。幾乎可以肯定的是，共和黨在過去八屆總統選舉中第七次失去了普選，但與此同時，我們并沒有真正的理由相信總統或者參議院能夠從共和黨的掌控中消失。其結果就是，由于沒有真正的改革途徑，美國大多數人會有越來越強烈的政治挫敗感。
And so the nation's politics looks like a version of trench warfare, where massive effort is expended to achieve the most incremental gains and the costs of stalemate only escalate. Those emotional costs may well be the most consequential. As the Pew Research Center has noted, partisan antipathy is growing "more intense, more personal." A supermajority of Democrats and Republicans view their opponents as "more closedminded." A supermajority of Republicans view Democrats as "more unpatriotic." But data is inadequate to capture the pain and intensity of human feelings. Our social media timelines are full of stories of broken relationships and fractured families. Many of us can tell stories of old friendships grown cold.
所以，美國的政治看起來就像是一場塹壕戰，要付出巨大的努力來獲得最大的增量收益，而陷入僵局的代價只會越來越大，其中情感上的代價可能是最為重要的。正如皮尤研究中心所指出的那樣，黨派反感正變得“越來越強烈，越來越個人化”。絕大多數的民主黨人和共和黨人認為他們的對手“更保守”。絕大多數共和黨人認為民主黨人“更不愛國”。但數據不足以捕捉人類情感的痛苦和強烈程度。我們的社交媒體時間線充滿了破裂的關系和破裂的家庭故事。我們很多人都能講述舊日友誼逐漸冷淡的故事。
The presidency may change hands, but the fundamental reality of American politics and culture remains the same. Our nation is deeply divided, our partisans are very angry, and there is no immediate prospect for change.
總統職位可能會易手，但美國政治和文化的基本現實依然如舊。我們的國家已經嚴重分裂，我們的黨派非常憤怒，而且目前還沒有改變的希望。
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