There are some exceptions to this decline. Non-residential burglaries spiked in early June, coinciding with the peak of the George Floyd protests, when looting of retail stores was common. Domestic violence has also probably increased. Data are sparse because only a small fraction of victims report being abused, and because police departments can be slow to share what numbers they do have. Research by Emily Leslie and Riley Wilson of Brigham Young University finds that calls related to domestic violence in March to May rose by an average of 7.5% in 14 cities compared with the same period in the previous year.
犯罪率的下降也存在一些例外。6月初，非住宅盜竊案頻發(fā)，恰逢喬治·弗洛伊德抗議活動(dòng)的高峰，當(dāng)時(shí)搶劫零售店的案件十分普遍。家庭暴力的比例也可能增長(zhǎng)。相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)稀少，因?yàn)橹挥幸恍〔糠质芎φ邎?bào)告受到虐待，而且警察部門(mén)分享掌握的數(shù)據(jù)的過(guò)程可能會(huì)很緩慢。楊百翰大學(xué)的艾米莉·萊斯利和萊利·威爾遜展開(kāi)了一項(xiàng)研究，調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，與去年同期相比，14個(gè)城市在3月至5月期間，與家庭暴力有關(guān)的來(lái)電平均上升了7.5%。
Alarmingly, murder also seems to be on the rise. So far this year, homicides in big cities appear to be up by around 20% against the average for the same period in 2015-19. Interpreting these numbers is tricky, since murder rates can vary a lot from year to year. An Economist analysis of FBI statistics finds that the total number of homicides in big cities fluctuated from year to year by an average of roughly 20% between 1990 and 2018. Murders in Chicago this year may be up by 51% through July 20th, compared with the same period in 2019, but by only 9% on 2017. Except in a handful of the cities in Mr Abrams’s data set, homicide rates did not change much relative to prior years after government shutdown orders were put in place.
令人擔(dān)憂(yōu)的是，謀殺案似乎也在增加。今年以來(lái)，大城市的兇殺案犯罪率似乎比2015-19年同期的平均犯罪率上升了20%左右。很難解釋這些數(shù)據(jù)，因?yàn)橹\殺率每年都會(huì)發(fā)生很大的變化。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，1990年至2018年間，大城市的謀殺案總數(shù)每年平均波動(dòng)約20%。與2019年同期相比，今年到7月20日為止，芝加哥的謀殺案可能增長(zhǎng)51%，但在2017年僅增長(zhǎng)了9%。幾個(gè)阿勃拉姆斯的數(shù)據(jù)集中的城市則是例外，在當(dāng)?shù)卣逻_(dá)封鎖命令后，謀殺率和前幾年相比并沒(méi)有太大變化。
One city which has seen a marked increase in violence in recent weeks is New York. Chris Herrmann of the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, a former analyst with the New York Police Department (NYPD), says this may be partly because many police officers who would normally patrol the outer boroughs have been redirected to Manhattan, where many of the protests are occurring. He also notes that Covid-19 has forced jails and prisons to release inmates, including many convicted of, or awaiting trial for, violent offences.
在紐約市，最近幾周的暴力事件明顯增加。約翰·杰伊刑事司法學(xué)院的克里斯·赫爾曼曾是紐約警察局（NYPD）的分析師，他說(shuō)，可能部分原因是許多平時(shí)在外行政區(qū)巡邏的警察被調(diào)到曼哈頓，而那里發(fā)生了多次議活動(dòng)。他還指出，新冠肺炎已經(jīng)迫使監(jiān)獄釋放囚犯，其中包括許多因暴力犯罪被定罪或等待審判的囚犯。
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