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The black swan lends itself to the idea that we don't have power over our futures.
這只黑天鵝助長了我們的觀點，那就是我們無法掌控我們的未來。
And unfortunately, the less control that we think we have, the more likely we are to downplay it or ignore it entirely.
不幸的是，我們越是這樣想，我們就越有可能對之不予重視，甚至完全忽視它。
And this dangerous dynamic masks another problem: that most of the problems that we're facing are so probable and obvious,
這個危險的情況還掩蓋了另一個問題：那就是我們所面對的困難都極有可能發生且極度明顯，
they're things that we can see, but we still don't do anything about.
它們是我們所能看見的，但是我們依然不采取任何措施。
So I created the gray rhino metaphor to meet what I felt was an urgent need.
所以我引用了巨型灰犀牛的比喻，來描繪我所認為的“急需”。
To help us to take a fresh look, with the same passion that people had for the black swan,
為了幫助我們煥然一新，用我們曾經對待“黑天鵝”那樣的熱情，
but this time, for the things that were highly obvious, highly probable, but still neglected. Those are the gray rhinos.
但這次為了非常明顯的事件，很可能發生，但是依然被忽視的事件。那些事件就是灰犀牛。
Once you start looking for gray rhinos, you see them in the headlines every day.
一旦你開始尋找這種動物，你就會每天都在頭條看到它的名字。
And so what I see in the headlines is another big gray rhino, a new highly probable financial crisis.
然而我在頭條所看到的是另外一頭灰犀牛。一個全新的，極有可能發生的金融危機。
And I wonder if we've learned anything in the last 10 years.
于是我在想我們是否真的從過去的十年里學到了什么。
So if you listen to Washington or Wall Street, you could almost be forgiven for thinking that only smooth sailing laid ahead.
如果你是從華盛頓或者華爾街聽到的消息，你認為一切順利就情有可原。
But in China, where I spend a lot of time, the conversation is totally different.
但是在中國，一個我投入了許多時間研究的國家，對話內容完全不一樣。
