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Now, back to my projections. When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph.
好，回到我的預測。但兩國何時能迎頭趕上？我們必須使用傳統圖表。
I will show income per person on this axis instead, poor down here, rich up there.
豎軸代表著人均收入，窮富遞進相增。
And then time here, from 1858 I start the world. And we shall see what will happen with these countries.
回溯到1858年，世界由此開始。讓我們來觀察下世界將會如何改變。
You see, China under foreign domination actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here.
中國正處于半殖民半封建時期，而他們國民收入已降低至印度的水準。
Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer. And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K.
同一時間，英美則越來越富有。二戰后，英國被美國趕超。
But independence is coming here. Growth is starting, economic reform.
與此同時，獨立的曙光則灑在中印兩國頭上。經濟經過改革后開始增長。
Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.
增長速率加快，并且加上國際貨幣組織的預測，這正是兩國于2014年會到達的水平。
Now, the question is, "When will the catch up take place?" Look at, look at the United States.
現時的問題則是：“他們何時會趕上？”再來回看下美國。
Can you see the bubble? The bubbles, not my bubbles, but the financial bubbles. That's the dot com bubble.
看的見那些泡泡？不是我的泡沫，而是經濟泡沫。
This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there. You see it came down there. And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know.
看，雷曼兄弟的門檻在這。看這里的下滑趨勢。英國也因受影響而下滑。
So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries. They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know.
這些國家走的并不是陽光大道。反而是崎嶇不平的。
And people interested in growth are turning their eyes towards Asia.
是故關注經濟增長的人們則轉移視線至亞洲。
I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up. You see, Japan did it like that.
我們將日本也加進來。日本是日趨上升。
We add Japan to it. And there is no doubt that fast catch up can take place.
日本是這樣發展的。日本也加入美英的行列。毫無疑問，他們追的很快，且趕上了。
Can you see here what Japan did? Japan did it like this, until full catch up, and then they follow with the other high-income economies.
看看日本怎么做的。直到完全趕上，日本是這樣發展的，接下來就緊隨著高收入國家的腳步。
But the real projections for those ones, I would like to give it like this. Can be worse, can be better.
不過我做出的預測則是這樣的。是福禍相依的。
It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future. Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past.
未來是難以預測的。偏偏有一位歷史學家告訴我過去更難預測。
