The damage to America’s economy so far has been deceptively small. Tariffs cause agony in export hubs such as northern Mexico, but even if Mr Trump imposes all his threatened tariffs, the tax on imports would be worth only about 1% of America’s GDP. His poll ratings at home have held up, even as they have slumped abroad. His officials believe the experiment in weaponising America’s economic network has only just begun.
到目前為止，美國經濟受到的損害看起來很小。關稅讓墨西哥北部等出口中心倍感頭痛，但即使特朗普將所有可能征收的關稅都強加于人，進口關稅也只相當于美國GDP的1%左右。他在國內的民調支持率一直居高不下，而在國外卻一落千丈。其官員認為，將美國經濟全球化網絡武器化的實驗才剛剛開始。
In fact, the bill is mounting. America could have built a global coalition to press China to reform its economy, but it has now squandered precious goodwill. Allies looking for new trade deals with America, including post-Brexit Britain, will worry that a presidential tweet could scupper it after it has been signed. Retaliation in kind has begun. China has begun its own blacklist of foreign firms. And the risk of a clumsy mistake that triggers a financial panic is high. Imagine if America banned the $1trn of Chinese shares trading in New York, or cut off foreign banks.
事實上，該法案還在增加。美國本可以建立一個全球聯盟，敦促中國改革經濟，但現在卻浪費了寶貴的善意。尋求與美國達成新貿易協議的盟友，包括脫歐后的英國，將擔心簽署協議后總統的一條推文就會破壞協議。以牙還牙的反擊已經開始。中國已經開始將外國公司列入黑名單。而且，一個笨拙的錯誤引發金融恐慌的風險很高。想象一下，如果美國禁止價值1萬億美元的中國股票在紐約交易，或者切斷外國銀行的業務。
In the long run the American-led network is under threat. There are hints of mutiny—of America’s 35 European and Asian military allies, only three have so far agreed to ban Huawei. Efforts to build a rival global infrastructure will accelerate. China is creating its own courts to adjudicate commercial disputes with foreigners. Europe is experimenting with building a new payments system to get round the Iran sanctions, which could in time be used elsewhere. China, and eventually India, will be keen to end their dependence on semiconductors from Silicon Valley. Mr Trump is right that America’s network gives it vast power. It will take decades, and cost a fortune, to replace it. But if you abuse it, ultimately you will lose it.
從長遠來看，美國主導的網絡受到了威脅。有跡象表明，美國在歐洲和亞洲的35個軍事盟友中，到目前為止只有3個同意禁止華為。建立一個有競爭力的全球基礎設施的努力將會加速。中國正在建立自己的法院來裁決與外國人的商業糾紛。歐洲正在試驗建立一套新的支付體系，以繞過對伊朗的制裁，這些制裁遲早會被用于其他地方。中國，最終還有印度，都渴望結束對硅谷半導體的依賴。特朗普說得對，全球化網絡賦予美國巨大的權力。要想取代它，將需要幾十年的時間，而且要投入大筆資金。但如果濫用，最終會失去。
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