Predictably, rather than bringing Iran’s leaders to their knees, America’s belligerence has caused them to stiffen their spines. Even Mr Rouhani, who championed the nuclear deal, has begun to sound like a hawk. Having long hoped that Europe, at least, would honour the promise of the deal, he is exasperated. On the anniversary of America’s exit from the agreement, on May 8th, he said that Iran would begin stockpiling low-enriched uranium and heavy water, which would in sufficient quantities breach its terms. Without economic progress in 60 days, he said, Iran “will not consider any limit” on enrichment. All this suggests that Iran will start moving closer to being able to build a nuclear bomb.
可以預(yù)見的是，美國的好戰(zhàn)并沒有讓伊朗領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人屈服，反而讓他們更加強(qiáng)硬。就連支持核協(xié)議的魯哈尼，其言論也像個鷹派人物。長期以來，魯哈尼一直希望歐洲至少會信守協(xié)議的承諾，但現(xiàn)在他感到憤怒。5月8日是美國退出該協(xié)議的周年紀(jì)念日，他表示伊朗將開始儲備低濃縮鈾和重水，這將達(dá)到足夠的數(shù)量違反協(xié)議條款。他說，如果60天內(nèi)沒有經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)展，伊朗“不會考慮任何限制”繼續(xù)尋求發(fā)展。所有這一切都表明，伊朗將開始向擁有制造核彈的能力邁進(jìn)。
As he walks his country towards the brink, Mr Rouhani has three audiences in mind. The first is his own hardliners, who detest the nuclear deal and have been pressing him to act. He appears to have appeased them, for now. On May 7th the front page of an ultraconservative newspaper declared: “Iran lighting match to set fire to the JCPOA.” He is also trying to get European companies to break with America. He will not succeed. Despite European Union attempts to design mechanisms that allow European businesses to skirt American sanctions, most of them have decided that the American market is too valuable.
在他帶領(lǐng)國家走向崩潰之際，魯哈尼想到了三個聽眾。第一個是他的強(qiáng)硬派，他們憎恨核協(xié)議，一直在敦促他采取行動。目前看來，他似乎已經(jīng)安撫了他們。5月7日，一家極端保守主義報紙的頭版宣稱:“伊朗點燃了火柴，引起了核協(xié)議的火。” 魯哈尼還試圖讓歐洲公司與美國決裂。他不會成功的。盡管歐盟試圖設(shè)計一種機(jī)制，讓歐洲企業(yè)繞開美國的制裁，但大多數(shù)企業(yè)都認(rèn)為美國市場太有價值了。
Iran’s most important audience is America, with which it seems to be playing an old game. Iranian leaders have long seen the nuclear programme as their best bargaining chip with the West. Though they have claimed that it is peaceful, un inspectors have found enough evidence to suggest otherwise. The technology is the same whether power or a weapon is the ultimate goal. Iran’s centrifuges can produce a bomb faster than sanctions can topple the regime, goes the logic of hardliners. But they are wielding a double-edged sword. The threat of obtaining a nuclear weapon is useless if it does not seem credible. And if it is credible, it risks provoking military action by America or Israel.
伊朗最重要的聽眾是美國，他們似乎在玩一場老游戲。長期以來，伊朗領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人一直將核計劃視為他們與西方討價還價的最佳籌碼。盡管他們聲稱這是和平的，但聯(lián)合國核查人員已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)了足夠的證據(jù)表明事實并非如此。無論最終的目標(biāo)是權(quán)力還是武器，技術(shù)都是一樣的。強(qiáng)硬派的邏輯是，伊朗的離心機(jī)制造核彈的速度比制裁推翻政權(quán)的速度還要快。但他們正在揮舞一把雙刃劍。如果核武器的威脅看上去不可信，那么它就毫無用處。如果這是可信的，就有可能引發(fā)美國或以色列的軍事行動。
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