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Now the risk report by Ian Bremmer
下面是伊恩·布雷默供稿的“風險報告”
The aftershock across the globe
余震波及全世界
THE IRAN DEAL ISN’T dead yet.
伊朗核協議并沒有徹底作廢。
The rest of the signatories (Germany, France, the U.K., Russia, China and the E.U.) have vowed to uphold the terms of the 2015 agreement.
（除美國外的）其他簽署方(德國、法國、英國、俄羅斯、中國和歐盟）都堅稱會擁護2015年達成的伊朗核協議的規定。
Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has signaled a desire to do the same.
伊朗總統哈桑·魯哈尼也表達了同樣的愿望。
And so President Donald Trump’s decision may become the latest proof that we now live in a post–Pax Americana world—
如此一來，唐納德·特朗普總統的決定或許就成了最新的證據，表明我們現在處在一個“后美國治世”的時代——
one in which the U.S. perhaps doesn’t play a lead role but a participatory one.
一個美國在世界舞臺上發揮的不再是主導作用而是參與作用的時代。
There is a growing divide between the U.S. and Europe,
美國和歐洲之間的分歧已經越來越大，
where leaders were already incensed that Trump has
此前，在鋼鐵和鋁產品上特朗普只給了歐盟暫時的豁免，
offered only temporary exemptions on the steel and aluminum tariffs that the U.S. is threatening to impose on the E.U.
現在，他威脅要開始對歐盟征收關稅了，他的這一舉措激怒了歐洲的領導人們。
After Trump’s Iran announcement, the U.K., France and Germany issued a joint statement that expressed regret and concern.
特朗普宣布推出伊朗核協議后，美法德三國發表了聯合聲明表示遺憾和關切。
French President Emmanuel Macron is trying to keep the deal alive by pursuing a “broader framework” that addresses not just nuclear activity
法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍試圖通過促成一個不僅針對核問題，
but also Iran’s missile program and its activities in Syria, Yemen and Iraq.
還針對伊朗的導彈項目及其在敘利亞、也門和伊拉克的活動的“更廣泛的框架”來挽救這一協議。
But it’s hard to see how he can convince Trump that Iran will no longer be “the leading state sponsor of terror,” as Trump described it.
但很難看到他會如何說服川普相信伊朗將不再是他所謂的“扶植恐怖主義的頭號國家”。
In the Middle East, the initial impact has already been felt.
中東已經初步感受到了特朗普退出伊朗核協議的影響。
Israel immediately deployed airstrikes in Syria, and more conflict is now a real risk.
以色列立即在敘利亞部署了空襲，日益增多的沖突如今已經成了真正的風險。
Both Israel and Saudi Arabia, confident in their support from Trump, will answer each perceived Iranian act of aggression.
自信有特朗普撐腰的以色列和沙特表示，伊朗的每一次挑釁，他們都會奉陪。
Worse still, if Iran decides the deal is indeed dead,
更糟糕的是，伊朗要是認定該協議確實已作廢，
it will kick out International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and begin enriching uranium.
就會遣散國際原子能機構的監察人員，重新開始濃縮鈾。
If you’re worried that Iran is determined to get a nuclear weapon, it’s better to have the inspectors inside the country.
如果你擔心伊朗已經決定制造核武器了，那你最好派些監察人員到伊朗去。
Concerns also exist stateside.
美國國內也存在擔憂。
The price of oil already reached a three-year high on the speculation that Trump was preparing to abandon the nuclear deal.
由于外界猜測特朗普準備退出核協議，石油價格已經漲到了三年來的最高水平。
As U.S. sanctions come back into force, Iran’s oil production will take a hit, as will the world’s supply of the critical commodity.
隨著美國對伊朗的制裁重新生效，伊朗的石油生產將會受到影響，石油這種極為重要的大宗商品在全球的供應也將受到影響。
If a spike in oil prices pushes gas prices higher,
如果油價飆升帶動天然氣價格上漲，
there will be political repercussions for Trump and his allies—just in time for the summer driving season and then the midterm elections.
特朗普及其盟友的政績就會受到影響——而且正好撞上夏季駕車高峰和中期選舉。
The President has not offered an alternative plan to thwart Iran’s nuclear development.
目前，特朗普總統還沒有提出阻止伊朗繼續發展核武器的其他方案。
Perhaps Iran’s faltering economy will doom the regime.
或許，伊朗那搖搖欲墜的經濟自己就會將伊朗政府推入深淵。
Or maybe the Trump Administration will respond to perceived provocation with military strikes.
又或許，特朗普政府會以軍事打擊還擊挑釁。
Whatever the strategy, the world may have just become an even more volatile place.
但無論他們采取何種戰略，這個世界可能都已經愈加動蕩了。
譯文由可可原創，僅供學習交流使用，未經許可請勿轉載。
