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Leaders
《社論》
Modi’s dangerous moment
莫迪的危險時刻
Two nuclear powers are shooting at each other. They are playing with fire
兩個核大國正在互相攻擊。正在玩火
The armies of India and Pakistan often exchange fire across the front line in the disputed state of Kashmir. When tensions rise, one side will subject the other to a blistering artillery barrage. On occasion, the two have sent soldiers on forays into one another’s territory. But since the feuding neighbours tested nuclear weapons in the late 1990s, neither had dared send fighter jets across the frontier—until this week. After a terrorist group based in Pakistan launched an attack in the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir that killed 40 soldiers, India responded by bombing what it said was a terrorist training camp in the Pakistani state of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Pakistan retaliated by sending jets of its own to bomb Indian targets. In the ensuing air battle, both sides claim to have shot down the other’s aircraft, and Pakistan captured an Indian pilot.
印度和巴基斯坦軍隊經常在有爭議的克什米爾前線交火。緊張局勢升級時，一方會對另一方進行猛烈的炮火攻擊。有時，兩國還派士兵進入對方的領土。但自上世紀90年代末這兩個長期不和的鄰國進行核武器試驗以來，雙方都不敢派遣戰斗機飛越邊境，而本周這個局面被打破。一個以巴基斯坦為基地的恐怖組織在印度控制的克什米爾地區發動襲擊，造成40名士兵死亡，此后，作為回應，印度轟炸了巴基斯坦開伯爾-普赫圖赫瓦州的一個恐怖分子訓練營。在隨后的空戰中，雙方都聲稱擊落了對方的飛機，巴基斯坦抓獲了一名印度飛行員。
A miscalculation now could spell calamity. The fighting is already the fiercest between the two countries since India battled to expel Pakistani intruders from high in the Himalayas in 1999. The initial Indian air raid struck not Pakistan’s bit of Kashmir, but well within Pakistan proper and just 100km from the capital, Islamabad. That, in effect, constituted a change in the rules of engagement between the two. India and Pakistan are so often at odds that there is a tendency to shrug off their spats, but not since their most recent, full-blown war in 1971 has the risk of escalation been so high.
現在的誤判可能導致災難。自1999年印度從喜馬拉雅山高處驅逐巴基斯坦入侵者以來，兩國之間的斗爭已經達到最激烈的程度。印度最初的空襲并非針對巴基斯坦的克什米爾地區，而是在巴基斯坦境內，距離首都伊斯蘭堡僅100公里。這實際上改變了雙方的交戰規則。印度和巴基斯坦經常發生爭執，人們往往此往往不以為意，但自1971年爆發最近一場全面戰爭以來，局勢升級的風險從未如此之高。
The intention of Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, in ordering the original air strike was simple. Pakistan has long backed terrorists who mount grisly attacks in India, most notably in Mumbai in 2008, when jihadists who arrived by boat from Pakistan killed some 165 people. Although Pakistan’s army promised then to shut down such extremist groups, it has not. By responding more forcefully than usual to the latest outrage, Mr Modi understandably wanted to signal that he was not willing to allow Pakistan to keep sponsoring terrorism.
印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪最初下令發動空襲的意圖很簡單。長期以來，巴基斯坦一直支持在印度發動恐怖襲擊的恐怖分子，尤其是2008年圣戰分子乘船從巴基斯坦抵達，在孟買制造恐怖襲擊，造成165人死亡。巴基斯坦軍方盡管當時承諾要關閉這些極端組織，但并沒有這么做。莫迪對最近的暴行做出了比以往更有力的回應，這可以理解，他想要表明，他不愿意讓巴基斯坦繼續支持恐怖主義。
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