評論
打印
2.EMOTIONAL RISK
2.情緒風險
This risk tends to be highest during periods of market extremes,
往往市場波動極大時這種風險最大，
when emotion and impulse are more likely to affect our investing decisions.
那時，情緒和沖動更容易左右我們的投資決策。
But whether it’s getting overly excited when stocks are on a tear or too pessimistic when the market is taking a beating,
然而，無論是股市一路高歌時得意忘形，還是股市陷入低迷時消沉悲觀，
letting your emotions sway your investing strategy can inflict real damage on your retirement prospects.
讓情緒左右投資決策都會給你的退休前景造成重大傷害。
One way to manage this risk is to set—and then preferably put in writing, so you’ll be more likely to stick to it—an asset allocation strategy
管控這種風險的辦法之一就是定一個資產配置策略 - 最好以書面形式，這樣更有可能堅持下去 -
that will increase your chances of being able to ride out stocks’ ups and downs without reacting rashly to them.
讓你更好地駕馭股票漲落而不是草率地做決定。
A risk-tolerance asset-allocation tool like the free version Vanguard offers can help you come up with such an asset mix.
能夠承受風險的Vanguard免費版本等資產配置工具就可以幫助你研究出這樣的資產組合。
Whatever stocks-bonds blend you ultimately decide on, make sure you rebalance occasionally
無論你最終決定選擇怎樣的股票債券組合比例，都務必時不時地重新調整您的組合比例，
to ensure that gains or losses in different holdings don’t cause your portfolio to stray too far from your target mix.
確保多種投資項目產生的收益或損失不會讓您的投資組合偏離目標組合太遠。
3.LONGEVITY RISK
3.長壽風險
You might think that this risk—
你可能認為這種風險 -
which is essentially the possibility that you could live much longer and spend a lot more time in retirement than expected—
大致就是你的壽命比預料的更長，因而退休時間也更長的可能性 -
would be an issue only after you retire.
只會在你退休之后才出現。
The danger, of course, is that if you underestimate how long you might live (as many people do),
其危險性當然在于你要是低估了自己了自己的壽命（其實很多人都這樣）
you might spend down your nest egg too quickly and outlive your savings.
你就可能很快花完自己的退休基金而自己還活著。
But longevity risk can also come into play during your working years.
問題是，長壽風險可能在你未退休之際就開始發揮作用。
If you assume you need to save enough during your career to support you for 20 years after you leave your job,
如果您覺得自己需要在退休之前存夠能在退休后養活自己20年的錢，
and you actually end up living 25 or 30 years in retirement,
而你實際上的退休時間為25或30年，
you’re not going to accumulate nearly enough savings to maintain your pre-retirement standard of living throughout your post-career life.
那你存的錢就無法讓你在退休之后繼續維持退休前的生活水平。
It’s impossible to know exactly when you’re going to shuffle off this mortal coil.
我們無法準確知道我們何時才會撒手人寰。
But you can get a more realistic sense of how long you may be around by going to the Actuaries Longevity Illustrator.
但是，你可以訪問Actuaries Longevity Illustrator網站，對自己可能會活多久有一個更切實際的認識。
With these estimates in hand, you will be able to better assess how much you ought to be saving during your career
有了這些判斷，你就可以更好地確定自己在退休前需要存錢的數額，
and how much you can safely afford to spend once you’re retired.
以及自己在退休能能夠承受的消費水平。
Of course, you won’t entirely eliminate longevity risk.
當然了，大家并不能徹底規避掉長壽風險。
But you’ll be much better equipped to deal with it.
但你還是可以更好地應對這一風險。
譯文由可可原創，僅供學習交流使用，未經許可請勿轉載。
