評論
打印
yes
請提問
the question has to do with the gains that Obama made in polling data after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the general financial meltdown
他的問題是奧巴馬的支持率 從民調數據來看 在雷曼兄弟破產以后以及大規模金融危機爆發后 有所上升
basically the polls had shown the two candidates running neck and neck for a while
最初民調的結果顯示兩個人在相當一段時間里是不相上下的
going up and down
一時上升一時下降
Obama had a spike with his tour in Europe his popularity went up
奧巴馬支持率在他出訪歐洲后有所上升
he got a little spike after the Democratic Convention
在民主黨全國代表大會召開后輕微上升
McCain got a very substantial spike after the Republican Convention
麥凱的支持率則在共和黨大會后上升了不少
particularly after Sarah Palin' speech
尤其是在薩拉佩林進行了她的演講后
a lot of Evangelicals very conservative Evangelicals were pretty soft on McCain
許多保守的福音派新教信徒都瘋狂地支持麥凱恩
and her nomination did increase that vote
佩林被提名副總統候選人后也有上升
pollster, people who look at the polling data come up with different conclusions
不同的觀察者看到民調數據會得出不同的結論
I read Democratic pundits who say
有個民主黨內的權威人士曾說
actually the pickup began a few days before Lehman Brothers collapsed
民主黨的支持率是從雷曼兄弟破產幾天前就開始上升的
they would attribute it to Sarah Palin's interview with Katie Couric
他們認為這得益于佩林在凱蒂庫里克訪談中的失誤
again I don't know the statistics well enough to make informed comments on that
不過我對這些具體數據并不了解 所以沒法作出權威的評論
certainly I think you're right though that the financial collapse helped Barack Obama very much
我想你的看法是有道理的 金融危機的出現 的確助了奧巴馬一臂之力
if it hadn't happened it would have been a close election
沒有金融危機 這屆大選的結果一定非常接近
I think we could pretty much safely say which could have gone either way
我想我們可以很確定的說 沒有金融危機兩方都可能獲勝
but still one thing to try to look at is how much did the voting shift in areas that were more affected by the financial collapse
不過一個值得研究的問題是 哪些地區的選舉傾向受金融危機的影響更多
I haven't been able to find maps to really tease that out
我還沒有找過這方面的地圖進行分析
yes but it's a very very important question
這的確是一個很準重要的問題
