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THE RISK REPORT by Ian Bremmer
風險報告 作者簡·布雷默
Turkey charges into Syria, threatening its alliance with Russia
土耳其進軍敘利亞，敘俄聯盟受到挑戰
TURKISH PRESIDENT RECEP TAYYIP Erdogan isn’t happy with the West.
土耳其總統雷杰普·塔伊普·埃爾多安歷來不滿西方國家。
He’s angry at the Trump Administration, because it refuses to extradite Fethullah Gulen,
他對特朗普政府不滿，因后者拒絕引渡
a former preacher now living in Pennsylvania whom Erdogan accuses of treachery and treason.
他指控身負叛國罪，如今住在賓州的前宣教人員法土拉·葛蘭。
He is also infuriated by the fact that the U.S. has chosen to partner with Syrian Kurds in the fight against ISIS,
在鎮壓ISIS一事上，美國選擇了和敘利亞的庫爾德武裝站在一起，對此他也是不勝其怒。
because he sees them as terrorists who support Kurdish separatists inside Turkey.
因為他覺得是敘利亞的這群恐怖分子在助紂為虐，支持土耳其境內的庫爾德分裂分子。
He has demanded that the U.S. stop working with Syrian Kurds, but that won’t happen anytime soon.
他要求美國停止與敘利亞庫爾德武裝合作，然而短期之內這是不可能的。
Erdogan also has a gripe with Europe, which has condemned his human-rights record and refused to advance Turkey’s bid to join the E.U.
埃爾多安還抱怨歐洲，因為歐洲譴責他侵犯人權，還拒絕推動土耳其加入歐盟的計劃。
All ambitious leaders need allies, and Erdogan has turned to Russian President Vladimir Putin,
所有雄心勃勃的領導人都需要盟友，埃爾多安則轉向了俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京，
who is only too happy to help undermine NATO by courting one of its most strategically important members.
能夠爭取到北約最具戰略意義的成員來進一步壓縮北約的勢力，普京當然是求之不得來了。
In November, Erdogan thumbed his nose at Western critics by purchasing a Russian-made air-defense system while scolding NATO allies for not offering him a better deal.
去年11月，埃爾多安一邊購入俄羅斯制造的防空系統，一邊責罵北約盟友不給他提供更好的交易，對西方評論家們是不屑一顧。
Erdogan is not likely to find Russia a reliable friend.
俄羅斯不太可能成為土耳其忠實的盟友。
In 2013, after his repeated warnings that Russian planes should not violate Turkey’s airspace en route to Syria,
2013年，在多次警告俄羅斯不應干涉土耳其至敘利亞的領空后，
Turkey shot down a Russian jet, killing a pilot.
土耳其擊落了一架俄羅斯飛機，炸死了一名飛行員。
Putin responded by squeezing Turkey’s economy until Erdogan finally apologized.
為此普京開始制裁土耳其經濟，埃爾多安最終道歉。
