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You'd probably be surprised to find how many people actually think we have never been to the moon.
你可能會驚訝地發現那么多人認為我們從沒去過月球。
They think a reflection on an astronaut's visor or the American flag supposedly "blowing in the wind"
他們認為，宇航員面罩反光或應該在風中飄揚的美國國旗
prove that the 1969 moon landing was staged by NASA to win the Space Race.
證明1969年的月球登陸是美國宇航局（NASA）為贏得太空競賽而策劃的。
Which, to be clear, it was not.
事實很顯然不是這樣。
But pretty much nothing you say is going to change a conspiracy theorist's mind.
但你說的幾乎不會改變陰謀論者的想法。
A conspiracy theory is the allegation
陰謀論就是斷言
that a group of (usually powerful) people conspired to achieve some (usually evil) goal.
一群（通常很強大的）人密謀達成一些（通常很邪惡的）目標。
To be fair, conspiracy theories aren't always false.
公平地說，陰謀論并不總是錯的。
Watergate, for instance, turned out to be real.
例如，水門事件是真的。
The CIA really was giving LSD to people.
美國中情局真的把水門事件的真相還給了人們。
But… a lot of them are pretty out there. Like, the Earth is flat!
但有很多陰謀論是假的。比如，地球是平的！
The U.S. government is hiding UFOs in Area 51! That kind of thing.
美國政府將不明飛行物藏在了51區等這一類事件。
With the internet spreading conspiracy theories faster than ever and making them more visible,
由于互聯網傳播陰謀論的速度比以往任何時候都快，使得陰謀論更加可見，
more and more people are exposed to them.
越來越多的人能接觸到它們。
And they can have a powerful effect on your behavior.
它們可能會對你的行為產生巨大影響。
Studies have shown that conspiracy theories can make people less likely to engage in politics,
研究已經表明，陰謀論可能使人們不太愿意參與政治、
vaccinate their kids, or try to reduce their carbon footprint.
給他們的孩子接種疫苗，或者減少他們的碳足跡。
So it's pretty important to understand why people believe in these ideas
所以理解人們為什么在面對相反的合理證據時
even in the face of reasonable evidence to the contrary.
仍相信陰謀論很重要。
Fortunately, psychologists have done a lot of research on conspiracy theories in the past couple decades.
幸運的是，心理學家在過去的幾十年里做了很多關于陰謀論的研究。
Most recently, they've found a bunch of support for a hypothesis that's been around for a while:
最近，他們發現了一個假說的大量證據，這個假說已經存在一段時間了：
illusory pattern perception, our tendency to see patterns that aren't there.
它就是幻覺模式感知，即我們傾向于看到不存在的模式。
Pattern detection is hardwired into our brains.
模式檢測在我們大腦中根深蒂固。
Some researchers think it evolved as our ancestors foraged for resources that tended to clump together.
一些研究人員認為，它是隨我們祖先搜尋那些傾向于聚集的資源而進化來的。
It also helps us avoid danger:
它還能幫助我們避免危險：
last time you smelled this funky odor, you got food poisoning, so maybe you shouldn't eat that meat.
你上次聞到這種怪味就食物中毒了，所以你也許不應該吃那塊肉。
But we might actually be too good at pattern detection.
但我們實際可能太擅長模式檢測了。
If you've ever tried to memorize a bunch of digits of pi,
如果你曾試過記住一串圓周率數字，
you'll know that random sequences often don't look random to your brain.
就會知道隨機序列在你的大腦中通常不隨機。
There's plenty of research to back this up.
很多研究都支持這一觀點。
We know that people see hot streaks in sports that aren't there
我們知道人們在體育中看到的是不存在的連續得分，
and that gamblers are more likely to see patterns in random sequences than other people.
而賭徒們比其他人更容易看到隨機序列的模式。
And a study from 1997 found that subjects were more likely to rate strings of Xs and Os
1997年的一項研究發現，受試者更有可能對Xs和Os字符串進行評級，
that were harder to split into patterns, and therefore harder to memorize, as being "more random",
這些字符串很難被劃分為模式，因為更隨機，所以很難記憶，
even when they'd be considered less random in the mathematical sense.
即使它們在數學意義上被認為不那么隨機。
According to the researchers, that suggests that
根據研究人員的說法，這說明
our sense of randomness is based more on how hard it is to mentally encode something,
我們的隨機感覺更多的是基于心理上對某些東西編碼有多難，
not how objectively random it is,
而不是隨機性多么客觀，
and that something that's easier to mentally process can stop feeling random.
而那些更容易在心理上處理的事會停止隨機感。
A 2017 study published in the European Journal of Social Psychology applied these ideas to conspiracy theories.
2017年發表在《歐洲社會心理學雜志》(European Journal of Social Psychology)上的一項研究將這些觀點應用于陰謀論。
The researchers conducted five experiments, with 200-400 participants in each.
研究人員進行了5次實驗，每組實驗參與者是200到400人。
In one experiment, people who saw patterns in a random series of coin flips
在一項實驗中，人們在隨機的拋硬幣活動中看模式，
were more likely to believe in an irrational experimenter-designed conspiracy theory.
他們更傾向于相信這是一個非理性的實驗設計陰謀論。
In another, they were asked to evaluate modern art paintings
在另一項研究中，他們被要求評價現代藝術作品，
that were considered either "structured" or "chaotic".
這些作品要么“結構化”，要么“混亂”。
Those who saw patterns in the "structured" paintings,
那些在“結構化”繪畫中看到模式的人，
so, patterns that were actually there, weren't more likely to believe in conspiracy theories.
因為模式確實存在，不太可能相信陰謀論。
But people who saw non-existent patterns in the "chaotic" ones were.
但在“混亂”繪畫中看到不存在的模式的人更愿意相信它。
Looking for patterns that aren't there might also affect your belief in conspiracy theories.
尋找不存在的模式也會影響你對陰謀論的信任。
Subjects who were told to look for patterns in the random coin-flips were more likely to find them.
被告知在隨機硬幣中尋找模式的受試者更容易找到它們。
Those who already believed in a conspiracy theory were more likely to see patterns in world events.
那些已經相信陰謀論的人更有可能看到世界事件的模式。
And when subjects read an article that argued for a conspiracy theory,
當受試者讀到一篇為陰謀論辯護的文章時，
they were more likely to believe in other, unrelated, conspiracy theories.
他們更傾向于相信其他無關的陰謀論。
So, illusory pattern perception might be the mechanism
因此，幻覺模式感知可能是一種機制，
that causes people to believe in conspiracy theories, but why do they do it?
它讓人們相信陰謀論，但它為什么這么做呢？
It might be because we don't like uncertainty.
這可能是因為我們不喜歡不確定性。
Studies have shown again and again that we're more comfortable with events that are predictable and controllable.
研究一再表明，我們對可預測和可控事件更放心。
So researchers think people use conspiracy theories
因此研究人員認為，人們使用陰謀論
to make sense of complex or upsetting events that don't seem to have a good enough explanation.
來講通那些沒有足夠解釋的復雜或不快事件。
If something is too hard to process, you might look for other explanations.
如果事情太難處理，你可能會尋找其他解釋。
People are also more likely to form conspiracy theories in the wake of events that are impactful or threatening.
人們也更有可能在有影響或有威脅性的事件發生后形成陰謀論。
Your brain wants better explanations for things with bigger consequences.
你的大腦需要對更大后果作出更好的解釋。
When the stakes are a beloved president's death,
當事關敬愛的總統去世時，
it makes more sense to your brain for there to be some giant, elaborate explanation,
你的大腦更容易接受一些詳細的宏觀解釋，
like a Warren Commission cover-up, than something simple like a lone gunman.
比如它是華倫委員會(Warren Commission)的一種掩飾，而不是一個孤獨槍手那樣簡單。
We're all susceptible to illusory pattern perception,
我們都易受幻覺模式感知的影響，
but there are some factors that predict whether someone is more likely to believe in conspiracy theories.
但是有一些因素可以預測一個人是否更容易相信陰謀論。
The biggest predictor for believing in a conspiracy theory is believing in another one.
相信陰謀論的最大預測者將相信另一個陰謀論。
But there are more.
但還有更多因素。
One study found that subjects used their own sense of morality as a proxy for that of other people.
一項研究發現，受試者使用他們自己的道德感代表他人。
So they were more likely to believe that, like, scientists created AIDS, for example,
所以他們更傾向于相信科學家發明艾滋病之類的陰謀，
if they thought that they themselves would have created AIDS.
如果他們認為自己創造了艾滋病的話。
Political extremism is another factor.
政治極端主義是另一個因素。
Researchers think it gives people a rigid perspective on societal change
研究人員認為，它給了人們關于社會變化的刻板印象，
and makes them more likely to question the authority figures offering the explanations.
并讓他們更有可能質疑提供解釋的權威人物。
Having less education can also make people more likely to believe in conspiracy theories,
接受較少的教育也會使人們更容易相信陰謀論，
but that's at least partly because those with less education feel they have less control over their lives.
但至少有部分原因是受教育程度較低的人覺得他們對自己的生活控制得更少。
This increases uncertainty, which in turn makes conspiracy theories more appealing.
這增加了不確定性，從而使陰謀論更有吸引力。
That might be something we can use to help defeat false conspiracy theories,
通過尋找方法幫助人們實現對自己生活的掌控感，
by finding ways to help people achieve a sense of control over their lives.
我們就可以擊敗虛假陰謀論。
Change is always hard, but reducing the uncertainty and fear it causes
改變總是困難的，但減少不確定性和它造成的恐懼
might mean people don't need to search for better explanations where they don't exist.
可能意味著人們不需要尋找更好的解釋，因為它們不存在。
Thanks for watching this episode of SciShow Psych.
感謝您收看本期的心理科學秀。
If you're interested in learning more about why our weird human brains work the way they do,
如果你有興趣了解更多我們奇怪的人類大腦這樣工作的原因，
you can go to youtube.com/scishowpsych to subscribe.
可以登錄youtube.com/scishowpsych，點擊訂閱。
