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More significant still is the behaviour of long-term interest rates.
然而，更值得關注的長期利率的表現。
They have fallen steadily since the 1980s and remain close to historic lows.
自上世紀80年代以來，它們一直在穩步下跌，目前仍舊接近歷史低點。
And that underpins all sorts of other asset prices.
而且，這支撐起了所有種類的其他資產價格。
A widespread concern is that the Fed and its peers have grossly distorted bond markets and, by extension, the price of all assets.
一種普遍的關切是，美聯儲及其同行嚴重地扭曲了債券市場。相應地，也扭曲了所有資產的價格。
Warren Buffett, the most famous disciple of Ben Graham, said this week that stocks would look cheap in three years' time if interest rates were one percentage-point higher, but not if they were three percentage points higher.
本周，格林漢姆最著名的信徒沃倫·巴菲特稱，如果利率再高一個百分點，股票在3年內期看上去會是便宜的；但是，如果再高3個百分點，就不便宜了。
But if interest rates and bond yields were unjustifiably low, inflation would take off - and puzzlingly it hasn't.
但是，如果利率和債券收益率不合理地處于低位，通脹就會飆升——令人困惑的是，通脹沒有飆升。
This suggests that factors beyond the realm of monetary policy have been a bigger cause of low long-term rates.
這表明，某些處于貨幣政策領域之外的因素是長期利率處于低位的一個更大的原因。
The most important is an increase in the desire to save, as ageing populations set aside a larger share of income for retirement.
最重要的是儲蓄愿望的上升，這是因為老齡化人口把退休收入中的更大的一部分留了出來。
Just as the supply of saving has risen, demand for it has fallen.
就在儲蓄的供給增加了的同時，對儲蓄的需求卻下降了。
Stagnant wages and the lower price of investment goods mean companies are flush with cash.
停滯的工資以及投資商品的較低價格意味著各家公司都是現金充裕。
All this suggests that interest rates will stay low by historical standards.
這一切表明，以歷史標準連連看，利率將處于低位。
Still the most dangerous, anti-Graham motto of investing is “this time is different”.
然而，最危險的反格林漢姆的投資格言是“這次不一樣”。
It would be daft to assume that asset prices must remain high come what may.
認為不論如何資產價格必須維持在高位會是愚蠢的。
Many hazards could derail the economy and financial markets, from a debt crisis in China to an American-led trade war or an outbreak of fighting on the Korean peninsula.
諸多風險——從中國的債務危機到美國發起的貿易戰爭，抑或是朝鮮半島戰事爆發——都可能讓經濟體和金融市場出軌。
And when the next recession comes, policymakers have less fiscal and monetary ammunition to fight it than they had in previous downturns.
而且，當下次危機來臨時，決策者比他們在前幾次衰退中少了一些財政和貨幣彈藥來抗擊衰退。
Prudence therefore suggests caution.
因而，謹慎意味著避免可能的風險。
