評論
打印
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領導者
Asset Prices: The bull market in everything
資產價格：全面牛市
Prices are high across a range of assets. Is it time to worry?
縱觀各類資產，價格已經高高在上。到了擔心的時候了嗎？
In his classic, “The Intelligent Investor”, first published in 1949, Benjamin Graham, a Wall Street sage, distilled what he called his secret of sound investment into three words: “margin of safety”.
在他初版于1949年的經典著作《聰明的投資者》中，華爾街圣人本杰明·格林漢姆把他稱之為是他的堅實投資之秘密的東西濃縮成了四個字：安全邊際（margin of safety 在英語中是三個字，轉換為漢語是四個字）。
The price paid for a stock or a bond should allow for human error, bad luck or, indeed, many things going wrong at once.
付給股票或者債券的價格應當考慮到人為的錯誤、糟糕的運氣，說白了就是禍不單行。
In a troubled world of trade tiffs and nuclear braggadocio, such advice should be especially worth heeding.
在一個貿易爭端與核武口水戰的亂世中，這類建議應當尤其值得聽從。
Yet rarely have so many asset classes—from stocks to bonds to property to bitcoins—exhibited such a sense of invulnerability.
然而，還從沒有這么多的資產類別——從股票，到債券，到房地產，再到比特幣——展示出一種如此不為所動的感覺。
Dear assets are hardly the product of euphoria.
昂貴的資產幾乎不是亢奮的產物。
No one would mistake the bloodless run-up in global stockmarkets, credit and property over the past eight years for a reprise of the “roaring 20s”, or even an echo of the dotcom mania of the late 1990s.
無人會把全球股市、信貸和房地產在過去8年中的這種不流血的上漲誤認為是“咆哮的20年代”的再現，甚或是上世紀90年代末互聯網狂熱的回響。
Yet only at the peak of those two bubbles has America's S&P 500 been higher as a multiple of earnings measured over a ten-year cycle.
然而，只有在那兩次泡沫的高點上，作為一個以10年期來衡量的盈利倍數，美國的標普500才是更高的。
Rarely have creditors demanded so little insurance against default, even on the riskiest “junk” bonds.
幾乎沒有債權人對違約，甚至是在風險最大的“垃圾”債券上，要求了這么少的保障。
And rarely have property prices around the world towered so high.
同時，世界各地的房地產價格也幾乎沒有這么高過。
American house prices have bounced back since the financial crisis and are above their long-term average relative to rents.
自金融危機以來，美國的房地產價格一直在反彈，相對于租金，已經高于其長期平均水平。
Those in Britain are well above it.
英國的房地產價格也遠在此之上。
And in Canada and Australia, they are in the stratosphere.
而且，在加拿大和澳大利亞，它們正在同溫層之中。
Add to this the craze for exotica, such as cryptocurrencies, and the world is in the throes of a bull market in everything.
再加上對于各種加密貨幣等新鮮事物的狂熱，世界正處于全面牛市的最終陣痛之中。
