評論
打印
what I want to do today is show you a lot of maps as always before
今天我要給你們看很多地圖 和往常一樣
I show maps I'm gonna show some graphs to get out some of the non-geographical aspects of change in this election
配合圖表數據一起 展示給你們看 來研究這場大選中除了地理方面的一些其他變化
and at anytime if anyone has questions or comments
歡迎你們隨時提問或發表評論
please feel free to interrupt me to talk about those
不用介意打斷我 隨時提問
start that with a few from Andrew Gelman
我們從格爾曼繪制的一些圖表開始
it's a very interesting site, name after his book Red State Blue State Rich State Poor State
它們均來自一個有意思的網站 是以格爾曼的一本書《紅色州藍色州富裕州貧窮州》命名的
richer people continue to lean Republicans so we are showing the Republican vote share 30% 40% 50% 60% you can see on the left
富人仍然傾向支持共和黨 我們看到左邊顯示的是富人對共和黨的支持率30%40%50%60%
and then income up to only $150,000 in the Bay Area that doesn't seem particularly wealthy
雖然年收入150,000美金在舊金山灣區是不算特別富裕
but for most of the country it's a healthy income
但在全國大部分地區 已經算是豐厚的收入了
and then we're comparing the 2008 elections with the 2000 and the 2004
圖中是2008年的選情 與00年和04年的比較
so you can certainly see poor people voting very heavily for the Democratic Party
你會發現在窮人選民當中 民主黨享有極高的支持率
and then as you get wealthier and wealthier as an increase in Republican voting although not as pronounced as in earlier years
然而在收入越高的人群中 對共和黨的支持率也隨著增高 雖然在08年這一規律已不如前兩屆顯著
but then Gelman goes and looks at even higher incomes and notes that in 2008 as opposed to 2004
格爾曼對收入更高的人作了進一步統計后發現 與2004年相反 2008年
the share of Republican voting is declining as you get into these higher incomes
共和黨的支持率隨工資增高而減少
and that is unusual and quite distinctive in this election
這是這次大選中較為不同尋常的地方
I wish it could have taken that out much farther
希望我們可以對這個問題更深入的討論
we discussed on the website a little bit
我們在網頁上討論過這個問題
article on the Wall Street Journal claiming that the super-wealthy those making 30 million or so are tending to vote for Obama
華爾街日報甚至有文章稱 美國的巨富階層 即資產3000萬美金左右的人更傾向于支持奧巴馬
whereas the merely wealthy those of a million to 10 million voting for McCain
而那些"一般富"的階層資產在百萬到千萬之間的則傾向麥凱恩
a lot of people think its sample size wasn't large enough
不過很多人認為該統計的樣本數量不夠
you can't have good data on that
因為相關信息較難獲取
