評論
打印
hey, welcome again to the geography of US presidential elections
歡迎再次回到美國總統大選地理學的課堂
our last session where we get to analyze the geographical patterns that were made evident last Tuesday night
我們的最后一課 將向你介紹上周二大選中出現的選情地理分布特征
we have here the Wikipedia map not quite ready to cover Missouri yet but it looks like Missouri will be a McCain's state
這是一幅來自維基百科的地圖 只剩密蘇里州的選情未畫出 但我記得密蘇里州是支持麥凱恩的
we certainly see some changes on this map from the most previous one a number of states picked up by the Democrats
從地圖中可以看到今年選情與04年相比所發生的變化 好幾個州在這次大選中轉向了民主黨
some of these states had been Democratic in the 2000 election so they are not too big of a change
他們當中有一些在2000年也曾支持民主黨 所以算不上什么大變化
the real significant changes were Virginia and Indiana
最引人注目的變化是弗吉尼亞和印第安納的轉變
both states which had not gone for Democratic presidential candidates since the landslide year of 1964
這兩個州是自1964年共和黨獲得壓倒性勝利以來 第一次支持民主黨候選人
so those are major changes
這是個主要的變化
North Carolina surprised quite a few people
一些人沒想到北卡會泛藍
Nevada, Colorado and Florida to some extent as well
內華達 科羅拉多和佛羅里達 也讓人有點驚訝
one of the things to note is the one electoral vote in Nebraska which is associated with the congressional district around
值得一提的是 內布拉斯加獨立的選舉人票是掌握在劃分好的國會區手上的
Nebraska and Maine the two states that can split their electoral votes that went for Obama the first time in the long time
只有內布拉斯加州和緬恩州的選舉人票是可以分離的 奧巴馬這一票 是民主黨候選人
that Democratic presidential candidate has won anything in the Great Plain states here so that's somewhat significant
長久以來第一次在地處大平原的內布拉斯加獲得支持 這也是值得注意的情況
one of the things to mention is that we've talked a bit about polling
我還要講一講之前曾提到過的民意調查
and certainly the pollsters did a good job particularly 5 38(.com)
民調家們這次干的漂亮 尤其是5 38.com（一民調預測網站)
some of you have talked to me about the site run by a former baseball statistician who evidently Nate Silver I believe is his name?
你們當中有人跟我討論過這個網站 它由一個前棒球數據統計家所創立的 我還記得他的名字是 內特 斯爾文
from childhood he was fascinated by numbers and what he could do with them
他從小就酷愛數字 以及對數字的處理統計
he applied them to baseball
他曾把他的研究運用到棒球比賽上
now he's applying them to politics and evidently he's gonna continue to do so
現在又把他們運用于政治 很顯然 他現在樂此不疲
and people are going to be watching that site very carefully
而人們也持續地對他的網頁密切關注
using very sophisticated statistical techniques to tease out this sort of patterns
它用來非常高端的數據處理技術來篩選出預測結果
