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Middle East and Africa
中東及非洲
Syria's Peace Talk: Time for someone else to have a go.
敘利亞和談：該有人做出嘗試了
Russia and Turkey take over from America.
俄羅斯和土耳其代替美國挑起大梁
Kazakhstan is an odd place to seek a fresh start for Syria.
哈薩克斯坦會成為敘利亞問題的一個新的突破點是有點奇怪。
Its strongman, Nursultan Nazarbayev, has been in charge since Soviet times.
哈薩克斯坦的最強者——努爾蘇丹.納扎爾巴耶夫—從在蘇聯時期開始就一直掌握該國的大權。
In 2015 he won 97.7% of the vote—an even better tally than Syria’s despot, Bashar al-Assad, can command.
在2015年，他贏得了97.7％的選票，比敘利亞的總統巴沙爾阿薩德更得民心。
But as a Russian-speaking capital of a Turkic nation sharing the Caspian Sea with Iran, there was some symbolism in selecting its capital, Astana, as a place to unveil the new tripartite protectorate over Syria.
哈薩克斯坦是土耳其語系國家，與鄰國伊朗共分里海，但首都阿斯塔納卻是俄語區，選取這樣一個城市來揭開新型三邊保護敘利亞行動的序幕，多多少少有一些象征意義。
And as peace talks go, the ones in Astana, on January 23rd-24th, marked a new realism.
隨著和平談判的到來，1月23日至24日在阿斯塔納的談判標志著一個新的現實主義。
The hosts were the three outside powers who are doing the bulk of the fighting in Syria.
東道主是在敘利亞進行大規模戰斗的三個外部大國。
Along with Russia and Turkey, they included Iran, which was pointedly kept out of the last round of talks in Geneva.
俄羅斯、土耳其和伊朗，他們被有意地安排與在日內瓦舉行的最后一輪會談保持些距離。
The Americans, Europeans and Arabs who steered those negotiations were this time either reduced to observer status, or absent altogether.
控制談判的美方，歐方以及阿拉伯人現在是作為觀察員，或者呈缺席狀態。
Saudi Arabia, once the rebels’ prime backer, is too preoccupied with its war in Yemen these days to have time for the one in Syria.
曾經的叛軍主要支持者——沙特阿拉伯，正專注于其在也門的戰爭，無暇顧及敘利亞的問題。
“The uprising began as an Arab awakening and ended in a carve-up among non-Arab powers,” says a Syrian analyst.
敘利亞分析家說：“起義開始于阿拉伯覺醒，結束于非阿拉伯國家之間的割裂。”
Also reflecting events on the ground, Syria’s opposition was represented by fighters, not by the politicians in exile who led the previous talks.
當然這也在引起了一系列事件，敘利亞的叛軍主要是由軍方控制而不是之前在和談中被流放的政治家們。
In the past Russia would have dismissed some of the delegates as jihadists, fit only for thermobaric bombing.
在過去，俄羅斯使用溫壓炸彈，可能已經擊退了伊斯蘭圣戰者。
But, perhaps under Turkey’s nudging, it now sees the benefits of engagement if the process is to get anywhere.
但是，也許是在土耳其的助力下，如果這樣的措施任意實行，其中的利益得失是顯而易見的。
Muhammad Alloush, who heads an Islamist armed group, Jaish al-Islam, showed his appreciation by praising Russia, which only a month ago was crushing rebels in Aleppo, for its “neutrality”.
Jaish al-Islam，一只伊斯蘭的武裝軍隊，它的首領Muhammad Alloush對俄方充滿了感激之情，——俄方在一個月之前在阿勒頗粉碎了反叛者，以示其“中立”的立場。
To mollify the politicians in exile, the fighters insisted they were there to talk only about ceasefires.
為了安撫被放逐的政治家，這些參戰者堅持稱他們僅僅是為了停止戰火才會那樣做的。
But the Russians also proffered a draft constitution, and issued invitations for follow-up talks in Moscow, set for January 27th.
然而俄羅斯依然提出起草憲法法案并發行了將要于1月27日在莫斯科做后續會談的邀請函。
The exiles would prefer to rely on America to promote the political process in a fresh round of talks in Geneva, pencilled in for February 8th.
流放的政治家們更愿意在2月8日的日內瓦進行新一輪會談時依靠美國來促進政治進程。
By then, however, Russia may already have written the terms.
然而，到那時，俄羅斯或許已經簽訂了條款。
An even more striking example of America’s new irrelevance is the mechanism devised for policing a ceasefire that has been in place for almost a month.
一個關于美國不想參與此事的更明顯的例子就是，美國推出無關緊要的停火機制已有近一個月了。
Out went the old arrangements agreed on with John Kerry, America’s former secretary of state, last September.
而之前美國前國務卿John Kerry支持的停火歇息已經是去年九月的事了。
Russia’s new partners were Turkey and Iran, who together would “observe and ensure full compliance with the ceasefire, prevent any provocation and determine all modalities”.
俄羅斯將會與新搭檔土耳其，伊朗，一起“遵守與確保停火的承諾，用一切方式阻止一切挑釁。”
Can this work?
這個能有效嗎？
Tellingly, the final communiqué, seeking to bolster the ceasefire, was issued by the external powers, while Syria’s belligerents registered protests and reservations.
值得關注的是，當敘利亞的交戰雙方顯示出要反抗和保留意見時，最后公報由外界力量發表，表示要停火。
However, the rebels probably have little choice but to comply.
然而，這些造反的人除了順從之外沒什么選擇。
Chased out of their last major urban redoubt in Aleppo and doubtful of their support from the new American administration, many want to grab what they can.
在阿勒坡，（造反者）從他們最后的主要城市堡壘被趕出去，以及（造反者）對美國新政府支持的懷疑，這些都使他們想要抓住他們能抓住的東西。
Even so, the war continues undiminished against some of the most powerful militias left off Astana’s guest list—Islamic State, the YPG Kurdish forces, and particularly an al-Qaeda offshoot, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (JFS) .
即便是這樣，戰爭也不會繼續削弱一些最強盛的民兵，然后從阿斯塔納的客人名單中除去——伊斯蘭國，庫爾德民主聯盟黨庫的部隊，以及特別是一個叫征服沙姆陣線的基地組織的分支。
JFS has launched its own offensive, pitting its 6,000 hardened fighters against the 15,000 of more moderate groups.
JFS已經開始了它的進攻，派遣6000個精銳將士去攻打有15000個士兵卻相對溫和的部隊。
That intra-rebel battle is again cutting roads across Idlib, the poor rural province the rebels still hold, and closing crossings to Turkey as they fight over bases.
內戰再一次切斷了(他們)跨越那個仍由造反者控制的窮困鄉下省份伊德利普的路，并且在基礎戰時快要越過土耳其了。
Judging by its record, Mr Assad’s regime will be as recalcitrant.
根據記錄判斷，阿薩德政府將繼續頑抗。
Talks may bring him benefits, such as dividing the opposition. (Mr Assad’s representative, Bashar al-Jaafari, quipped that he hoped the terrorists would help defeat the terrorists. )
談判或許會給他帶來利益，例如，能夠分化反對黨。(阿薩德的發言人Bashar al-Jaafari諷刺道這是以毒攻毒。)
But even when weaker, the regime preferred military options.
但是即便反對派削弱了，阿薩德政府還是偏向于軍事主義政策。
Having won the whip hand, it is in no mood to discuss a transition to a broader government.
既然已經在政府中取得了支配地位，那么阿薩德政府也沒有閑情逸致來討論如何轉變為一個更加民主的聯合政府。
Should Russia try to bring him to heel, Mr Assad is signalling he has other friends to turn to.
就算俄羅斯準備逼迫阿薩德政府就范，他也暗示了自己還有其他可以尋求幫助的盟友。
While Iran sat at the table talking ceasefires, Mr Assad and its forces were making common cause fighting in the valleys of Wadi Barrada above Damascus.
當伊朗政府在談判桌上尋求停火之際，阿薩德及其軍隊正在準備在大馬士革之上的WadiBarrada山谷發動進攻。
By delegating responsibility for the ceasefire to three outside powers, the tripartite mechanism may well have the effect of creating zones of influence.
通過授權同意外部三方勢力停火，這三方會談應該會對這片區域造成深刻影響。
Untroubled by the Iranians and Russians, the Turks are fighting to expand their enclave (against IS and the Kurds) in the north.
由于沒有受到伊朗人和俄羅斯人的妨礙，土耳其人正在北部擴張他們的飛地(來對抗IS以及庫爾德武裝)。
The Iranians are doing much the same around Damascus.
伊朗人也在大馬士革周邊做著相似的事情。
Russia is firmly entrenched on the coast.
而俄羅斯人封鎖了海岸線。
The conflict, it seems, will continue; as will yet another of the Middle East’s sad, interminable peace processes.
沖突似乎還會繼續；與此同時中東之殤仍然存在，和平之路任重而道遠。
譯文來源考研英語時事閱讀
