評論
打印
And within 90 days of the product launching, we were able to use this technique to be able to figure out
推出該產品90天后我們就能用這個方法來計算
what the one year value of an advertiser was, and we predicted it for the first year to 97% of what the number turned out to be.
一位廣告商一年創造的價值我們預測出的數值是真實值的97%
So I think it's very important to look at your attention curve, and this is how we did it.
我認為觀察用戶留存曲線非常重要我們是這么操作的
If you see here.
大家看這里
This red line is number of users, who have been on your product for a certain number of days.
紅色線表示使用產品一定時間的用戶數
So, a bunch of people, that should say zero, a bunch of people will have been on your product,
有些人或是說沒有人有些人一直使用你的產品
all of your users will have been on it at least one day.
所有的用戶至少有一天使用了你的產品
But, if your product's been around a year, or whatever, you will have zero users who've been on it 366 days.
如果你的產品推出一年了使用了366天的用戶數為零
Make sense? The curves sensible? Cool.
說得通嗎？好的
So what you then do is look for all of your users, who have been on your product one day.
然后你這么來看用戶數用戶至少使用了一天你的產品
What percentage of them are monthly active.
月度活躍用戶占多大百分比呢？
100% for the first 30 days obviously, because monthly active they all signed up on one day.
顯然，第一個月是100%因為第一個月，只要是使用過一天的都算活躍的
But then you look at 31.
然后看第31天
Every single user, on their 31st day after registration, what percentage of them were monthly active, 32nd day, 33rd day, 34th day?
注冊31天后月度活躍用戶占多大百分比呢？看第32天看第33天，看第34天
And that allows you, with only something like 10,000 customers or whatever, to get a real idea of what this curve is gonna look like for your product.
這樣你就可以--假設只有10000名用戶就能得到你的產品的用戶留存曲線
And you're gonna be able to tell does it asymptote.
你就可以判斷其走向
And it'll get noisy out towards the right-hand side.
圖的右邊會有一些波動
Like I'm not using real data.
我用的不是真實數據
It'll get noisy out towards the right hand side, but you'll be able to get a handle on, does this curve flatten out or does it not.
圖的右邊會有一些波動不過你能看得出來線是不是平的
If it doesn't flatten out, don't go and do growth tactics, don't go and do virality, don't hire a growth hacker.
如果不是平的，就不要談什么增長策略了不要談什么病毒式增長，不要雇增長黑客
