歐洲 俄羅斯政壇風向突變
Putin’s purges
普京的清洗運動
Interpreting a sudden crackdown on extravagant officials
風向突變,槍指官員;個中詳情,且看分解
For senior members of the United Russia party it was like a scene from Mikhail Bulgakov’s “The Master and Margarita”. They would have special affinity with Nikanor Ivanovich Bosoi, chairman of the tenants’ association tricked by Woland (Satan in disguise). The roubles he gets from Woland’s sidekick and stuffs into a ventilation shaft turn into dollars. Bosoi is arrested and put in a psychiatric ward, where he dreams of a bass voice booming from the sky: “Hand over your foreign currency!”
對于統一俄羅斯黨的高層來說,如今這幅景象就像米哈伊爾·布爾加科夫的《大師和瑪格麗特》中寫的一樣。他們一定對書中的伊萬諾維奇·波索伊印象深刻,這位租戶協會主席被由魔鬼撒旦喬裝的烏蘭欺騙。他從烏蘭的口袋里搞到蘇聯盧布,然后通過通風井變成美元。波索伊后來被捕,并被投入精神病院。在病床上,他夢見從空中傳來一陣低沉的聲音:“把你手里的外匯交出來!”

This time the voice asking for a handover of foreign bank accounts was President Vladimir Putin’s. On February 12th he submitted a bill to the Duma banning officials and lawmakers from having foreign bank accounts or investing in foreign government debt. The draft also banned the ownership of property abroad, though this was subsequently changed to merely demanding its declaration.
如今這個呼喊著催逼外國賬戶的人換成了普京總統。2月12日,普京向杜馬提交了一份議案,要求禁止政府官員和杜馬議員持有外國銀行賬戶和購買外國國債。議案還禁止擁有境外財產,不過這一項隨后被改為只需發表類似聲明即可。
A day later Vladimir Pekhtin, a founder of United Russia and head of the Duma’s ethics committee, was revealed as the owner of an undeclared $1.3mluxury apartment in Miami Beach. The details were posted on the internet by Alexei Navalny, an opposition activist and blogger. Mr Pekhtin brushed off these “unmerited accusations”. “I practically have no property abroad,” he insisted. Yet on February 20th, doubtless after hearing Mr Putin’s voice, he resigned from the Duma. Even though he had done nothing wrong, he said, the scandal tainted the party and its interests must come above his own. Another United Russia deputy, Anatoly Lomakin, with an estimated fortune of $1.2 billion, resigned “for health reasons”. More deputies are on their way out, say press reports. State television showed pictures ofMiami Beachapartments and talked of purges and a return of moral values.
一天之后,身為統俄黨締造者、俄羅斯杜馬道德委員會負責人的弗拉基米爾·佩赫廷被爆出在邁阿密海灘擁有一所并未公開、價值130萬美元的奢華公寓。這些細節是由俄羅斯反對派活動家、博客作家阿萊克謝·納瓦爾尼通過網絡爆出。佩赫廷否認了這些“不當指責”,他堅稱:“事實上我在境外沒有財產。”不過在2月20日,佩赫廷選擇從杜馬辭職,毫無疑問這是普京的授意。佩赫廷表示,雖然自己并沒有做錯什么事,但這個爆料被視為玷污統俄黨的丑聞,黨的利益高于他的個人利益,他只能認栽。另一位統俄黨黨員、身價達120億美元的安納托利·羅馬金因“健康原因”而辭職。據媒體報道,更多的統俄黨人士在尋找出路。俄羅斯國家電視臺播送了邁阿密海灘公寓的照片,并談及這次黨內清洗,言及這是道德價值的回歸。
In place of public denunciations and 1930s show trials, the “purged” Mr Pekhtin was greeted by standing ovations from his comrades who called him an example of morality. No proceedings were started against him and he could yet end up with a cushy job. Nevertheless, the purges signal a shift inRussia’s politics.
與公開譴責和上世紀30年代的公審公判不同,這一次“清洗”佩赫廷是以同志們長時間起立鼓掌,稱其為道德楷模的方式進行的。他沒有遭到任何起訴,退出后還拿到一份輕松的工作。話雖如此,清洗標志著俄羅斯政壇要變風向了。
Gleb Pavlovsky, a former Kremlin consultant, explains that, in the past, the nomenklatura were shielded from opponents’ criticism and left to enjoy the fruits of their loyalty at home and abroad without interference from the top. Mr Pekhtin’s resignation shows that this no longer holds true, but without explaining what the new rules are. This makes the elite nervous, which may be no bad thing from Mr Putin’s viewpoint.
前克里姆林宮智囊格萊布·帕夫洛夫斯基對此解讀說,在蘇聯時代,政府大員們沒有政治對手攻擊之虞,只要忠于體制,就能尊享國內國外的種種特權,還不會受到高層干預。佩赫廷的辭職表明這一現象將是明日黃花,只不過新的游戲規則還沒有厘定出來。這會讓俄羅斯的權貴們緊張不安,不過按照普京的觀點這可能不是什么壞事。
The purges are not a concession to the opposition. Using Mr Navalny’s information to its advantage has not stopped the Kremlin from throwing new accusations at him. Nor do they stem from a sudden conversion to the principle of democratic accountability. Rather, say Kremlinologists, they reflect Mr Putin’s need to gain more legitimacy among voters and tighten his grip over an elite that likes to keep its assets and children in the West.
不過清洗并不代表對反對派的讓步。雖然當局采用了納瓦爾尼的信息,不過這并不會讓克林姆林宮停止對他提起新指控。這些變化并非源于民主問責制。相反,按克里姆林宮問題專家的說法,這反倒折射出普京需要從選民手里獲得更多的支持,并像對待他們在西方國家的財產和移居西方的小孩一樣,收緊對俄羅斯權貴階層的控制。
Behind the purges lies an assumption that the West is plotting against him and could exploit the private interests of Russian officials. Mr Putin seems to see America’s Magnitsky act, which threatens sanctions against Russian officials involved in human-rights abuses, as an attempt to control them. Hence his wish to “ring-fence” the elite from Western influence and gain more leverage.
清洗的背后也有這樣一種假設,即西方正在密謀反對普京,而且可能會利用俄羅斯官員的私人利益來達到目的。美國已經弄出了個“馬格尼茨基法案”,這項法案威脅要制裁在馬格尼茨基案中侵犯人權的俄羅斯官員,這就是在嘗試去控制俄羅斯官員。因此普京要把俄羅斯的精英們從西方的影響中“隔離開來”,加大對這一群體的影響。
But Mr Putin’s options are limited. Access to Western goods, services and property is a pillar of his system. Removing it could turn more of the elite against him. Random (and so far soft) purges, a ban on foreign bank accounts and anti-American hysteria may be mere half-measures, but even they may be too extreme. Alexei Venediktov, editor of Echo Moskvy, a radio station, comments that “Mr Putin has tied an axe over the head of the elite. But being a cautious politician, he considers a threat of repression more effective than repression itself.”
但是普京手里的牌卻不多。精英階層購買西方商品,享受西方服務,置購西方地產,這些特權是支持普京權利體系的支柱,現在回收這些特權可能會把權貴們趕到自己對立面去。雖然在普京看來,肆意清洗(現在還算輕的),禁開外國銀行賬戶以及對美國妄想癥般的詆毀都不過是折中方案,即便如此,這些方案都顯得太過于極端?!澳箍苹芈暋彪娕_編輯阿萊克謝·維涅季克托夫評價說:“普京在權貴頭上懸了一把斧頭。但是作為一個審慎的政治家,他知道高壓的威脅遠比高壓本身更有效果。”
Repression is used against protesters but also on junior officials. In the past year over 800 cases have been opened into local officials, councillors and mayors. The highest-profile casualty so far was Anatoly Serdyukov, an ex-defence minister implicated in a procurement scandal. He was fired and humiliated on state television, but not arrested or charged. Whether he is now brought before the judges will show just how far Mr Putin’s purges go.
鎮壓不僅用在抗議者身上,還用在高官們身上。在過去的2012年,俄羅斯有800多個案子涉及到地方官員、議員和市長們。迄今為止,最大的受害者就是前國防部長謝爾久科夫,他是因一樁采購丑聞而落馬。他被解了職,還在國家電視臺上出了洋相,不過沒有被關押和指控。他會不會被送到法官面前取決于普京的清洗行動會走多遠。翻譯:程蒙