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經濟學人:英國選戰 兩黨黨首"抄襲"奧巴馬式拉票

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Britain How to win elections

英國 獲選方法
Baracking the voters
奧巴馬式拉票
British parties want to emulate the American master
英國政黨希望效仿美國總統
At ten o’clock, recalls a Labour Party staffer, the sweep began. From neighbourhoods across America, information rippled up a telephone chain. By 10.25am on election day, Barack Obama’s campaign headquarters in Chicago knew exactly where its troops were and how many ballots had been cast in each precinct. Activists were promptly redeployed. The same thing happened at 2pm and again at 4pm. The visitor was left wide-eyed, and inspired: “It can work in Britain, too.”
據英國工黨(Labour Party)某成員回憶稱,當天上午10點,行動開始展開。來自全美各地的信息使得電話聲連綿不絕。選舉日上午10點25分前,位于美國芝加哥(Chicago)的奧巴馬(Barack Obama)競選總部已準確地把握其宣傳人員的部署以及各選區的票數。這些宣傳人員隨即受到重新安排。隨后,當天下午2點和4點,部署又進行了相同的調整。那位目擊全過程的工黨成員對此大開眼界,并大受啟發道:“這一套在英國也行得通。”

奧巴馬式拉票引英國爭先效仿.jpg

Astonishing as it may seem, the 2015 British general-election campaign has begun. The Conservative Party’s campaign headquarters sports a countdown clock informing staffers how many seconds remain before polls open. Like Labour and the Liberal Democrats, it has a list of target seats. And all three parties are keen to learn from the great American vote-wrangler.

雖然有些驚人,但2015年英國大選活動也已展開。英國保守黨(Conservative Party,譯者注:下文的Tories亦表示保守黨)在競選總部得意洋洋地掛起一架倒計時鐘,以向其成員明示開票日前的所剩時間。同時,保守黨也和工黨與自由民主黨(Liberal Democrats)同樣羅列出所爭取的國會席位。以上三黨都希望從美國高效的拉票團體中學得一二。
The campaign model they so admire rests on three foundations: a large and disciplined field operation, a good system for managing data and plenty of cash. British political parties used to boast formidable field machines, but they have slipped. Even Labour, which boasts most boots on the ground, has a membership of under 200,000. The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are finding that coalition government is glyphosate to the grassroots.
三黨佩服美國的競選模式在于三點:宣傳活動規模盛大而井井有條、信息管理體系完備、競選資金充足到位。英國政黨曾自詡其無敵的拉票團體,但現已不復存在。連群眾基礎最深厚的工黨,其成員也已不足20萬人。而保守黨和自由民主黨也已意識到,聯合政府只會使其喪失群眾根基。
With traditional parties shrinking, Britain’s politicos talk of the Obama model as a solution. The art of community organising—convening energetic groups of activists around local issues—is all the rage. Honed by Mr Obama in the Industrial Areas Foundation (IAF) in 1980s Chicago, it inspired his decentralised campaign machine. Labour has flown in Arnie Graf, a former IAF director, to overhaul its structures. The Conservatives have established a residential training academy for campaign managers. The Liberal Democrats want to defend seats they hold by running almost purely local campaigns.
在這傳統政黨衰弱之時,英國的政客們開始推崇“奧巴馬式”競選以求改善。以地方問題召集有志團體,即社區動員的技法開始盛行。1980年代,時任“產業地區基金會”(IAF)成員的奧巴馬對社區動員法進行了改良。隨后,該方法推動了其分散于全美各地的競選團體。英國工黨已派人飛往前IAF前主席Arnie Graf住處,以徹底改革其黨內體制;保守黨則為培養競選管理者設立了一所寄宿制培訓學校;而自由民主黨則希望以近乎徹底的地區競選來保住手中的國會席位。
This is easier said than done. Britain’s politicians tend to keep activists on a tight leash—and have little cash with which to recruit and train professional organisers. Matthew McGregor, a Briton who was part of Mr Obama’s digital communications team, says building the Organising for America network took a “will to invest” that is mostly absent from Westminster politics. Time to select candidates and build local movements is running out, adds Paul Goodman, a Tory commentator. “Having cups of tea with people is very important,” he explains.
但這一方法言易于行。英國政治家常對拉票人約束甚多。同時,在雇傭和培養專業管理人員的資金上也是捉襟見肘。曾擔任奧巴馬數字通信小組的英國人Matthew McGregor表示,“組織美國”(Organising for America,譯者注:奧巴馬當政后成立的政治宣傳計劃)這一網絡的建立需要人們“有出資的意愿”,而這一意愿在英國政府中十分少見。保守黨評論員Paul Goodman補充道,在確定候選人與組織地區活動的同時,時間不斷流逝,“和人們喝喝茶顯得相當重要。”
If the campaigners are the limbs of the Obama model, a good data system is the brain. It enables campaign supremos to target tailored messages at precisely the right voters. Of the British parties, the Liberal Democrats are farthest ahead technologically. In 2011 they bought the snazzy Voter Activation Network used by the Obama campaign, which enables users to generate finely customised lists of voter contact details. Sadly, the party has little raw information—and too few canvassers with which to obtain it. The other parties are hurriedly upgrading their systems.
在奧巴馬競選模式中,如果說拉票人構成其四肢的話,完備的信息管理系統就是其大腦。通過該系統,競選人可將合適的信息準確無誤地傳達給選民。在英國,自由民主黨在技術上遙遙領先于其他各黨。2011年,該黨購置了奧巴馬競選時曾使用的“選民活化網絡”(Voter Activation Network)這一時髦貨,為其準確地生成了各個選民詳細聯系方式的特制列表。但可惜的是,該黨的一手信息不足,并缺乏為其收集信息的宣傳人員。而其他黨派則忙著革新自己的競選系統。
The Conservatives enjoy the healthiest balance-sheet, although it is footling by American presidential standards. According to the Electoral Commission, the party has out-fundraised Labour in three of the past four quarters. Its debts are much smaller and its finances less reliant on unpredictable trade union bosses. This makes it easier to invest in staff and technology: the Tories have already recruited three waves of campaign managers for 2015.
盡管以美國選舉標準看來,英國保守黨的收支盈余不值一提,但其收支狀況在英國各黨派中確實最為良好。美國選舉委員會(Electoral Commission)曾表示,該黨在過去四個季度中有三個季度的募資數額要高過工黨。保守黨的負債相對少得多,財政上也不太依賴那些飄忽不定的工會主席。因此,保守黨更易于人員和技術上進行投資:該黨已為2015年國會選舉雇傭的三批競選管理者。
Along with the other parties, the Tories are concerned at their over-reliance on the (admittedly deep) well of donations from wealthy folk and institutions. Politicians are therefore looking covetously at Mr Obama’s extensive network. In the 2012 campaign, the president drew on a much broader pool of 4m small donors. Mr McGregor insists that, with time, an equivalent British donor base of up to 1m is eminently achievable; others scoff at that.
但與其他黨派一樣,保守黨對于資金上過度依賴(不可否認依賴極深)富庶的個人或團體捐贈一事深感憂慮。因此,英國政治家們開始把貪婪的目光轉向奧巴馬采用更廣泛的網絡媒體。2012年美國大選中,奧巴馬總統募集到了大筆經費,400萬的贈款相比之下九牛一毛。McGregor還表示,在本次英國競選中,英國類似地籌集到100萬以上經費,這顯然不難做到;但其他人對此嗤之以鼻。
As they rush to emulate American methods, British party operatives acknowledge a fundamental difference. In America, the personality of the top candidate infuses the campaign. It is used to energise supporters, court donations and unite a sprawling operation. In Britain the same tech-savvy, decentralised structures are being used quite differently: to win over an electorate that loathes national politicians. The Liberal Democrats plan to fight “75 by-elections” precisely because their role in the coalition—personified by Nick Clegg—is so unpopular. Even David Cameron, the most appealing of the three main party leaders, has been conspicuously absent from recent Tory election literature. Whereas presidential candidates must insert national politics into voters’ lives, Westminster’s unloved politicians benefit from keeping the two separate.
就在英國各黨紛紛急于效仿美國式競選時,其成員也承認兩者存在根本上的差異。美國的競選領袖可將人格魅力滲入競選之中。以此可博得支持、換來資金,并能統一雜亂無章的拉票活動。而在英國,這一同樣技術精良而分散各地的系統在功能上截然不同,其目的是從厭惡政府的選民那里贏得支持。以克萊格(Nick Clegg)副首相為代表的自由民主黨由于在聯合政府缺乏民意支持,因此打算瞄準本次“75個補缺選舉名額”。就連三大黨派領袖中最具人氣的卡梅隆(David Cameron)首相,顯然也在近期的保守黨競選活動中毫無動靜。盡管候選人必須使國家政治深入選民心中,但英國這些不受歡迎的政治家們反而從政民分離中得利。翻譯:沈驁

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