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My name is Martin Lewis
我叫馬丁路易斯
I teach in the history department here in Stanford
我任教于斯坦福大學的歷史系
Some of you have taken some of my other courses
你們當中一些人可能已經上過我的其他課程
I recognized some faces out there
我能認出一些面孔
in fact the gentleman in the front row actually, recommended I teach the class
事實上正是坐在前排的這位男士推薦我來教這門課程的
So we owe it to him so we have the class here today
因為他的提議，我們今天才能在這學習這門課
Those of you have taken my classes know that I love maps
上過我的課的同學都知道我很喜歡地圖
The aspect of everything about maps
我喜歡地圖的各個方面
I like the way they look I like the pattern they show
無論是它們的外觀，還是他們表達信息的各種方式
And one thing I like about elections especially the U.S. Presidential Elections
我之所以喜歡研究選舉，尤其是美國總統選舉的其中一個原因
Is its wealth of maps the cartographic resources that come with it
就是因為有豐富的地圖資源用于研究大選的情況
It is a lot to chew on
供我們細細咀嚼
Not just U.S. elections but other elections as well we find the same sort of thing
其實不僅是美國的選舉，在其他國家的選舉中我們也能找到大量的地圖資源
And one pattern that we can generalize about
例如，我們能夠看到
Is that for a country like Ukraine in 2004 has a stark geographic division
以2004年烏克蘭選情為例，它有著明顯的地理區劃
With district over here voting 90 percent for Viktor Yonukovych
你們看到在地圖西南部有Yonukovych支持率超過90%的選區
district over here up to 96 percent for Viktor Yushchenko
而在東北部有Yushchenko支持率超過96%的選區
You know there are some problems in that country
不過你們也知道的這個國家有點不正常
We've seen some problems in Georgia watch Ukraine, it could be much worse
我們知道喬治亞州也有類似情況，但與烏克蘭對比之下，是小巫見大巫了
And we have the pro-Russian half of the country the eastern and northern half
烏克蘭的親俄派多在的東部和北部
Starkly divided from pro-western western half of country
與西部的親西方派產生明顯分歧
Another place where we've seen something quite similar is in Bolivia
來看看另一個也有著類似分歧現象的國家
I'm sorry the map is pretty fuzzy
不好意思，這幅地圖有點模糊
But this is the election where Evo Morlas won
這次大選中莫拉萊斯最終獲勝
In the highlands where the most population catch or Morlas speaking
在玻利維亞高原地區大部分選民都支持莫拉萊
You can see winning over 80,90 percent in many districts
可以看到他在這些地區的支持率有些高達80%甚至超過90%
And allow us with a few exceptions
不過也有一些例外
His opponent winning by equal numbers in Bolivia now is on the brink
他的競爭對手率在西部的邊緣地區也獲得同樣高的支持
The more prosperous low lands in the east are pushing forward economy
相對繁榮的東部平原地區正在大力發展經濟
Some people question the future of Bolivia
但有些民眾對玻利維亞的未來憂心忡忡
United States, while, we've seen it before
這幅美國地圖，我們之前看過
We saw in 1860 this map does not show at that well
這是1860年大選的選情地圖可能不是很清楚
you can see a swath of states voting for Lincoln
北部有連成一片的州支持林肯
A swath of states in the south voting for John Breckinridge
而大多數南方的州則把選票投給了約翰·布萊金瑞奇
And the border states going different ways
你能看到屬于不同陣營的州的地理分界
Where you can really see the election of 1860
你能由此大致了解1860年的選情
And again, I apologize for the map might be a little bit hard to read
我要再次表示抱歉地圖可能很難看清
But if you go down to county level data
當我們研究縣級選情的地圖時
And what we will find is actually there were two parallel elections in Untied States that year
我們會發現那年美國實際上同時進行了2場大選
The Democratic Party has split basically over the supreme court's Dred Scott decision
最高法院對德雷德史考特案的判決成為了民主黨分裂的導火索
The southern democrats walked out the convention
南部民主黨人在推選總統候選人的會議中中途離場
So there were two democrats running Stephen Douglas and John Breckinridge
導致有兩派民主黨人參加總統大選分別是道格拉斯和約翰·布萊金瑞奇
Basically one running in the north and the other in the south
他們一位是北民主黨推選的總統候選人，另一位則是南民主黨推選的總統候選人
Lincoln representing the new Republican Party wasn't even in the ballot in the south
林肯代表新成立不久的共和黨參選在南部一票都沒得到
And these green counties in the south are sort of the remnants of the old Whig party
南部這些綠色的縣是輝格黨的殘余勢力的支持者
they call themselves the constitutional excuse me they call themselves the unions of party
他們新組建了一個名為憲政聯合黨的黨派，他們稱自己為黨派的聯合
And their platform is just basically keep the union
他們的政綱是維護聯邦的統一
Let's not talk about slavery or these other sorts of problems
我們想淡化在奴隸制度以及其他問題上的矛盾
Although Lincoln only got votes in northern half of the country
盡管林肯只獲得北部的選票
that's where the most population was he won
但由于大部分人口居住在北部，林肯因此獲勝
here was a one-term congressman self-educated lawyer defeating a vice president
就這樣，這位僅擔任過一屆國會議員自學成才的律師打敗了這位美國副總統
the most powerful man in the senate and the former speaker of the house
他是參議院中最有權勢的人，前任眾議院議長
well, obviously that set up the civil war
很顯然，這直接導致了美國的南北戰爭
