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During the savings and loan debacle in 1984,we looked at every single failure,and we looked for common characteristics,
1984年儲貸危機期間，我們仔細研究了每一個破產案例。尋找其中的共同點。
And we discovered this recipe was common to each of these frauds.
我們發現這一套路在每個欺詐案例中都存在。
In other words, a coroner could find these things because this is a fatal recipe that will destroy the banks as well as the economy.
換言之，驗尸官能夠找到這些東西。因為這是致命的“毒方”不僅會毀掉銀行，也會毀掉我們的經濟。
And it also turns out to be precisely what could have stopped this crisis, the one that cost us 11 trillion dollars just in the household sector.
這也正是可以阻止這場危機發生的東西，這一危機僅在經濟的私人部門就讓我們損失11萬億。
Yhat cost us 10 million jobs, was the easiest financial crisis by far to have avoided completely if we had simply learned the lessons of epidemics of control fraud,particularly using this recipe.
丟掉1000萬個工作崗位，如果我們能夠運用這一固定套路從大面積的管理欺詐行為中吸取教訓，我們就可以輕而易舉地避免這場危機的發生。
So let's go to this crisis, and the two huge epidemics of loan origination fraud that drove the crisis appraisal fraud and liar's loans.
現在我們來看看這場危機以及導致它發生的兩種大面積借貸欺詐行為：估價欺詐和欺騙性貸款。
and what we're going to see in looking at both of these is we got warnings that were incredibly early about these frauds.
研究這兩者，我們發現：第一，對于這些欺詐行為，我們接到的預警信號非常之早。
We got warnings that we could have taken advantage of easily,because back in the savings and loan debacle,we had figured out how to respond and prevent these crises.
第二，我們可以輕而易舉地利用這些預警信號采取措施，因為早在儲貸危機時期，我們就知道了如何應對，從而避免危機的發生。
And three, the warnings were unambiguous.
第三，這些預警信號確切不疑。
They were obvious that what was going on was an epidemic of accounting control fraud building up.
它們清楚地表明了大面積的會計管理欺詐行為正在升級。
Let's take appraisal fraud first.
我們先來看估價欺詐
This is simply where you inflate the value of the home that is being pledged as security for the loan.
簡單地說，估價欺詐就是夸大用作貸款擔保的房屋的價值。
In 2000, the year 2000,that is over a year before Enron fails, by the way,the honest appraisers got together a formal petition begging the federal government to act.
在2000年，也就是安然破產一年多前，有節操的估價師聚在一起，起草了一份正式的請愿書。要求聯邦政府采取措施，
And the industry to act,to stop this epidemic of appraisal fraud.
要求行業自身采取措施，制止這種大面積的估價欺詐行為。
And the appraisers explained how it was occurring,that banks were demanding that appraisers inflate the appraisal,
這些估價師解釋問題是如何發生的：銀行要求估價師弄虛作假夸大估值。
and that if the appraisers refused to do so,they, the banks, would blacklist honest appraisers and refuse to use them.
一旦估價師拒絕配合，銀行就把這些有節操的估價師拉入黑名單，不再雇傭他們。
Now, we've seen this before in the savings and loan debacle,and we know that this kind of fraud can only originate from the lenders.
在儲貸危機期間，我們就遇到過這種情況，我們知道這種欺詐行為的罪魁禍首就是借方。
and that no honest lender would ever inflate the appraisal,because it's the great protection against loss.
有節操的借方絕對不會為估值灌水，因為拒絕灌水才是防止損失的上策。
So this was an incredibly early warning, 2000.
所以說，預警信號早在2000年就已出現。
