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Fortunately, Europe had the benefit of the social safety net. It held down European growth rates in good times, but it served its purpose in the downturn and the recession in Euroland turned out to be less severe than expected. Now that the fears of an economic collapse have subsided, the European Union is showing some signs of political revival. For instance, the European Central Bank has effectively bailed out the Irish banking system and Ireland has resoundingly endorsed Lisbon Treaty. So perhaps I should not be too pessimistic about Europe.
幸運的是，歐洲受益于社會安全網。它在適當的時候使歐洲的增長率得到了控制。它在控制增長率方面雖有成效，但最終表明，歐元區增長率的降低對衰退并沒有起到預想的作用。由于對經濟崩潰的擔憂已經減弱，歐盟出現了政治復蘇的跡象。例如，歐洲央行已有效地挽救了愛爾蘭銀行系統，而愛爾蘭也成功地通過了《里斯本條約》。因此，我們對歐洲也不應該太過悲觀。
The fact that the financial crisis is having different long-term impacts on different countries may turn out to be more of a problem. In the short term, all countries were negatively affected, but in the long term there will be winners and losers. Although the range of uncertainties for the actual course of events is very wide, shifts in relative positions can be predicted with greater certainty. To put it bluntly, the United States stands to lose the most and China is poised to emerge as the greatest winner. The extent of the shift is already exceeding most expectations. There will be significant changes in the relative positions of other countries as well but from a global perspective the one between the United States and China is the most significant.
金融危機對不同國家產生的長期影響具有差異性，這一點最終將使問題更突出。在短期內，所有國家所受的都是不利影響，但從長遠來說，終將會有贏家和輸家之分。雖然不確定因素涵蓋的實際范圍很廣泛，但我們可以預見相對位置一定會發生變化。說得大膽一些，美國將會輸得最多，而中國則勢必成為最大的贏家。如此巨大的轉變，已出乎大多數人的意料。而其他國家的相對位置也會發生很大的變化。但從全球的角度看，美國與中國之間的變化才具有最重要的意義。
