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The next two weeks will be critical for the EU's future with Germany taking a pivotal role and here's why: Germany may be the euro zone's economic power houses, pockets are deep. But they are fraying. Germany's central bank,the Bundesbank, is already on the hook for at least 800 billion dollars of peripheral country debt. And that's about a quarter of German GDP. This can't just be about Germany bank-rolling bailouts. Everyone is saying they need a deeper, more intergrated EU. Everyone of course, except for European politicians.
接下來的兩周，對歐盟的未來至關重要。德國在歐盟擔任了關鍵的角色，理由很充分：德國或許是歐元區的經濟發動機，德國人民荷包里有錢，但也正在縮水。德國中央銀行已經陷入至少8000億美元的外圍國債危機，相當于德國1/4的GDP。這不能僅僅是德國經濟救助的問題。人人都說他們需要一個更加完整，協調性更好的歐盟！當然歐洲的政客除外。
Now the marriage analogy here might be cliche but it so aptly describes the EU: married, in name only. They have yet to consummate this thing. Now what would that take will first, politically, they would have to take a big step to smooth out the economic bumps in weaker countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal.
現今，也許拿婚姻來譬喻歐盟已是老生常談，但也確切地描述了歐盟的現狀：結婚了，不過只是名義上的。他們還沒有完善這個體系。現在歐盟首當其沖的任務是，在政治上邁出一大步來緩解經濟弱國（如希臘，西班牙和葡萄牙）的危機。
They are nursing recessions, high unemployment, and some are now suggesting that austerity has actually been self-defeating and responsible for triggering those recessions. Now that would mean committing to a more federal system, that in an orderly way makes transfer payments, a lot of those transfer payments coming from countries like Germany, those transfer payments going from strong countries to weaker ones whenever necessary. This may seem like Germany is committing to the footing the bill, with absolutely no payback, but the risk of contagion is real and here is why this is just one measure: if Spanish banks fail, German Banks remain the most exposed. I mean look at this: Germany taking on 10%. The pressure for Germany and others to fully commit to Europe in every way is strong and blunt, and many like hedge fund billionaire George Soros are saying: Look . This is the warning，you have little time and little room for debate now.
這三國是經濟蕭條，高失業率的溫床，一些成員國認為厲行緊縮政策只會弄巧成拙，會引發經濟蕭條。那意味著一國對多國負責，只是一種舊的轉移支付方式。許多轉移支付的資金都來自德國這樣的國家，一旦有需要，資金則由強國轉到弱國。看起來德國似乎是在爭付賬單，卻永遠得不到回報。但事態蔓延擴散至多國的風險是存在的，這就是為什么只有一個解決方案：如果西班牙銀行倒閉，德國則是最大的受害者。我的意思是：德國的損失占總體10%。德國和其他國家面臨的來自歐洲的壓力很大，也很直接。正如對沖基金億萬富翁喬治·索羅斯說道：“看。這就是警告，你沒有時間，沒有余地去爭論。”
Paula, CNN, London.
寶拉，CNN，倫敦。
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