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金融世界 第十三講
自從二十世紀八十年代初開始，澳大利亞與其他許多國家一樣實行了貨幣浮動匯率制，英文是 floating exchange rates。也就是說，澳大利亞元的價格要隨著市場的變化而不斷變動。
在這一講中，我們就來看一看貨幣的價格也就是匯率到底是由什么來決定的。
我們知道，匯率是兩種或兩種以上貨幣之間的比價。最初，澳大利亞同世界上的許多國家一樣，實行的是固定匯率制。澳洲廣播電臺金融節目主持人巴里克拉克對此作了解釋。他在談話中提到這樣一些詞匯：
1 fixed exchange rates 固定匯率
2 Gold Standard 金本位制，以黃金為本位貨幣的貨幣制度，1819年英國首先采用，1929年后被大多數國家放棄
3 Bretton Woods system 布雷頓森林貨幣體系，1944年7月在美國新罕布什爾州布雷頓森林舉行了聯合國家貨幣金融會議，確定一盎司黃金等于三十五美元，其他貨幣與美元匯率在上下百分之一的幅度內浮動
4 crawling peg system 蠕動釘住匯率制，布雷頓森林匯率制度瓦解后的一種匯率制度，只對匯率作少量調整，避免劇烈變動
5 International Monetary Fund 國際貨幣基金組織
下面我們分段聽一遍澳廣金融節目主持人巴里克拉克的談話和中文翻譯：
Precisely because the exchange rate is such an exceptionally important price, many find it surprising, and even alarming, that it is allowed to fluctuate from day to day, from hour to hour, and even from minute to minute, according to the vagaries of market forces.
恰恰由于貨幣兌換率是這樣一種特別重要的價格，允許它根據市場反復無常的力量每日每時甚至每分鐘都上下浮動，使很多人感到驚訝甚至擔憂。
Throughout most of the 19th century, and for part of the 20th century, the world economy operated on a quite rigorous system of fixed exchange rates, known as the 'Gold Standard'. Though the Gold Standard was abandoned during the Great Depression, a modified regime of fixed exchange rates was reinstated with the reconstruction of the international financial mechanism after the Second World War. This was known as the 'Bretton Woods system', presided over by the International Monetary Fund.
在整個十九世紀和二十世紀部分時期，世界經濟是基于一種嚴格的固定匯率制度來運作的。這種制度稱為“金本位”制。盡管大蕭條期間金本位制被拋棄，二次大戰后重建國際金融秩序時又恢復了一種較為溫和的固定匯率制，稱作“布雷頓森林制”，由國際貨幣基金組織掌管。
Even as late as the early 1980s, though the original Bretton Woods mechanism had by then essentially collapsed internationally, the Australian authorities were still attempting to manage the exchange rate under a so-called 'crawling peg' system, with the object of stabilising the price of the dollar.
甚至到了一九八十年代初，盡管那時原來的布雷頓森林制在國際上已經基本垮臺，澳大利亞政府仍試圖根據所謂的“蠕動釘住”制來管理貨幣的兌換率，以穩定澳元的價格。
But in December 1983, the then Federal Treasurer, Paul Keating announced the floating of the dollar.
但是在1983年的12月，當時的國庫部長基廷宣布澳元自由浮動。
現在我們再完整聽一遍巴里克拉克的談話。（略）
那么，貨幣的價格不再由政府的中央銀行決定之后，是由什么來確定呢？是由坐在交易所里面的貨幣經紀人來決定嗎？美國斯坦福大學經濟系教授安妮克魯格說：
The major part of the story has to do with the market determining the exchange rate, but the market in itself is reacting to a number of underlying factors and those include how much is exported, how much is imported, what relative interest rates are, how much demand and supply, if you like, there is for the Australian or the US dollar relative to other currencies.
So it's a market determined rate and in that sense, what's happening in the trading rooms is that the traders are trying to figure out where the market is going. And for most purposes I think the evidence is that they do not have a great deal of influence in anything other than a little bit on the day to day side.
